(WASHINGTON, D.C.) — The Real Estate Roundtable (RER) released its Third Quarter 2026 Sentiment Index, a quarterly measure of confidence among senior commercial real estate (CRE) executives. The overall index registered 63, unchanged from the previous quarter, as improving property fundamentals and strong debt availability were offset by persistent challenges raising equity capital and subdued transaction activity.

More than half of respondents (56%) say current market conditions are better than a year ago, while 54% expect a more favorable market environment one year from now.

 “Commercial real estate fundamentals are improving, supported by stronger leasing, healthier debt markets, and greater stability in asset values. However, limited equity capital and high costs continue to constrain transactions and development,” said Jeffrey DeBoer, RER President and CEO.

The Q3 Sentiment Index topline findings include:

• The Q3 2026 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 63, no change from the previous quarter. The Current Index registered 63, a 2-point increase from Q2 2026. The Future Index posted a score of 63 points, a 1-point decrease from the previous quarter. The collective sentiment across the interviews is that U.S. real estate fundamentals are improving, but the market remains highly divided and constrained by capital formation challenges. Most participants described operating conditions as healthier than they were a year ago, supported by improving leasing fundamentals, abundant debt capital, and stabilization of post-COVID dislocations. However, fundraising remains challenging, transaction volume remains below desired levels, and investors are still navigating valuation resets and geopolitical uncertainty.

• Sentiment varies sharply by asset class. Data centers are viewed as the clear leader, supported by AI-driven demand, capital inflows, supply constraints, and strong fundamentals. Retail has also improved, benefiting from limited new supply and durable demand. Industrial and logistics remain attractive, though enthusiasm has cooled from pandemic highs. Multifamily is more mixed, with long-term demand offset by oversupply and affordability pressures in some markets. Office remains highly bifurcated, as trophy assets and markets gain traction while weaker markets lag.

• Almost half (45%) of respondents believe asset values are relatively unchanged compared to a year ago, while 43% feel they are higher and 12% think values have declined. Interviewees pointed to REITs trading at a premium to NAV, moderating cap rate compression, and early signs of stabilization in select markets as evidence that private valuations may be approaching an inflection point. Looking ahead, the outlook is overall optimistic: 49% expect asset prices to rise over the next year, 50% believe asset values will remain stable, and only 1% anticipate that values will decrease.

• Perceptions on equity capital are split, with 25% believing availability is worse compared to a year ago, 35% thinking it is better, and 40% feeling it is the same. On the other hand, sentiment around debt capital is positive, as 63% said the availability of debt capital has improved from last year. Looking forward, 50% of respondents believe that equity capital availability will be better in one year and 29% believe debt capital availability will be better.

“Data centers continue to outperform other property sectors, as AI reshapes commercial real estate and drives unprecedented demand for reliable, affordable energy, DeBoer added. Policymakers must ensure that energy infrastructure, permitting, tax, and regulatory policies keep pace with this growth. A coordinated approach that expands power generation and transmission, modernizes the grid, and preserves a stable investment environment will help support data center development while protecting ratepayers and meeting the needs of communities and the broader economy.”

Sample responses from participants in the Sentiment Index’s Q3 survey include:

• “Capital raising remains difficult across nearly every property type despite modest improvement from last year; investors are demanding more certainty before committing fresh capital.”

• “Liquidity in real estate debt markets is among the strongest seen in recent years; the principal challenge is now the cost of capital rather than the availability of capital.”

• “Property fundamentals are healthier than public sentiment would suggest; elevated replacement costs are protecting existing asset values by suppressing new supply.”

• “Data centers are experiencing stronger demand than the industry has ever seen and are attracting capital more easily than nearly any other property type.”

Data for the Q3 survey was gathered by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on RER’s behalf in July. See the full Q3 report.

The Real Estate Roundtable (RER) brings together leaders of the nation’s top publicly-held and privately-owned real estate ownership, development, lending and management firms with the leaders of major national real estate trade associations to jointly address key national policy issues relating to real estate and the overall economy.

#     #     #