The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released its long-awaited reorganization of various program offices on Monday. It lists ENERGY STAR–the voluntary federal public-private partnership promoting efficiency in buildings and appliances–as falling under the newly structured Office of Radiation and Indoor Air (“ORIA”). (EPA website | E&E News, Nov. 3)

Agency Restructuring

• The new ORIA office, which includes ENERGY STAR, is part of EPA’s ongoing “comprehensive restructuring efforts” and staff reduction plans announced this summer. (EPA press release, July 18)

• For example, EPA reorganized its research office in October–carrying through on Administrator Lee Zeldin’s May testimony to Congress. (E&E News, Oct. 20)

• EPA’s new structure acts on a Feb. 26 memo of the White House Office of Management and Budget (“OMB”) directing all agencies to implement plans to reorganize, streamline, and reduce federal staff. The OMB memo itself stems from the DOGE Executive Order signed by President Donald Trump on Jan. 20.

Industry Advocacy

• In May, Zeldin stated to Congress that EPA was considering whether it might be appropriate to privatize ENERGY STAR. This followed a proposed White House budget to eliminate a now-defunct EPA office that previously housed ENERGY STAR. (Roundtable Weekly, May 9)

• RER and leading real estate organizations responded with letters to EPA (April 4) and the Department of Energy (May 14), highlighting ENERGY STAR’s importance for U.S. buildings and explaining why ENERGY STAR should remain a federal program. (Roundtable Weekly, May 23)

• A multi-industry coalition followed suit. Trade associations representing real estate, product manufacturers, consumer technology, and retailers took the issue to Congress. Their June 6 letter emphasizes that ENERGY STAR is a statutorily required federal program that cannot be privatized. (Roundtable Weekly, June 6)

• These efforts resulted in ENERGY STAR funding approved by House and Senate Appropriations Committees. Both chambers have clearly signaled that ample funds for EPA’s buildings and appliance partnership program are available once the government reopens. (Roundtable Weekly July 25; Sept. 5)

ENERGY STAR Continues During Shutdown

• While EPA’s funding bill for FY ’26 (that started Oct. 1) has yet to pass the full Congress and reach President Trump’s desk, ENERGY STAR has continued to function amid the ongoing shutdown. For example:

• The important Portfolio Manager benchmarking tool remains available.

• The ENERGY STAR registry of certified buildings remains accessible to CRE stakeholders, as well as the world’s largest publicly available data set related to building energy efficiency.

• 164 NextGen buildings have been certified since the summer.

• The open-access federal contracting database shows that the consultant contract to support ENERGY STAR for commercial buildings is paid through at least July 13, 2026.

• While ENERGY STAR finds a place in EPA’s new indoor air office–with Congress prepared to fund it, and the program continuing during the shutdown–EPA’s overall reorganization continues. An agency spokesperson reportedly stated, “No final decision has been made at this time” regarding ENERGY STAR’s long-term status. (New York Times, Nov. 1)

RER and our industry partners will continue to track these events closely. The coalition will advocate for EPA to operate the bipartisan, highly successful ENERGY STAR program robustly and efficiently once the government reopens.

The Real Estate Roundtable’s (RER) Q4 2025 Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 67, equivalent to the prior quarter, reflecting that commercial real estate executives’ sentiment has shifted from caution toward guarded optimism as markets stabilize, transaction activity resumes, and expectations build for easing interest rates in 2026.

Topline Findings

The Q4 Sentiment Index topline findings include:

• The Q4 2025 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 67, equivalent to the previous quarter. The Current Index registered a score of 64, a 1-point increase from Q3 2025. The Future Index posted a score of 69 points, a 2-point decrease from the previous quarter, reflecting sentiment that the market has largely stabilized and is now transitioning from caution to guarded optimism. Many participants anticipate stronger transaction activity in 2026 as interest rates ease and confidence builds, yet acknowledge that political and policy uncertainty continue to temper near-term enthusiasm.

• Although perspectives vary by asset class, overall market sentiment remains positive. Only 13% of respondents believe that general market conditions are worse than this time last year, while 63% believe that general market conditions are better than this time last year. More than two-thirds (70%) of Q4 survey participants expect general market conditions to show improvement one year from now. Leaders reported continued strength in residential sectors, alongside steady improvement in retail and hospitality. Office remains the most challenged asset class, though signs of stabilization are emerging in top-tier markets.

• 43% of respondents believe asset values are roughly unchanged compared to a year ago. A large minority of participants see green shoots, with 42% believing asset prices have increased and only 15% believing they have declined. Looking ahead, the outlook is optimistic: 72% expect asset prices to rise over the next year, 24% believe asset values will remain stable, and only 4% anticipate a slight decline.

• Perceptions on the availability of equity capital relative to last quarter are muted, although nearly half (48%) of respondents still believe equity availability is better compared to a year ago. On the other hand, sentiment around debt capital has risen significantly, as 78% said the availability of debt capital has improved from last year. Looking forward, 64% of respondents believe that equity capital availability will be better in one year and 56% believe debt capital availability will be better.

Roundtable View

• RER President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Real estate executives see encouraging momentum. Roundtable members are reporting steady improvement and renewed confidence across sectors. Despite improvements, tariffs continue to drive up development costs and complicate business planning. Moreover, the record-long government shutdown is disrupting infrastructure and construction permitting, and access to current economic data that companies rely on to plan”

• He added, “Clear, consistent, and coordinated policies from Washington are essential to unlock capital and support long-term economic growth in communities nationwide.”

Data for the Q4 survey was gathered by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on RER’s behalf in October. See the full Q4 report.

The government shutdown, now in its sixth week, continues to strain markets. Despite some bipartisan progress, the path to reopening remains uncertain as the economic fallout spreads across housing, infrastructure, and other sectors.

State of Play

• Early this week, bipartisan senators began exploring a short-term compromise to pair a continuing resolution (CR) with a vote on extending Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies. (CBS News, Nov. 5) 

• Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) requested a meeting with President Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to discuss expiring ACA subsidies and a reopening framework. (Politico, Nov. 5)

• By midweek, a group of Senate Democrats signaled openness to a GOP plan that would extend government funding through January, include an appropriations package, and advance an ACA subsidy vote. (PoliticoPro, Nov. 6)

• President Trump urged Republicans to “get the government back open immediately,” linking GOP election losses to the stalemate, while Democratic leaders encouraged colleagues not to “cave” to pressure to compromise on key priorities. (CBS News | Politico, Nov. 5)

• Majority Leader Thune said Republicans are finalizing a “minibus” to serve as the vehicle for a deal, though hurdles remain on both sides. (PoliticoPro, Nov. 6)

• Expected travel delays remain a potential flashpoint in negotiations, as Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said the federal government would reduce airline traffic by 10 percent at 40 locations beginning on Friday if the shutdown continues. (CBS News, Nov. 5)

• Majority Leader Thune intends to hold a vote to advance a funding package on Friday. Democrats have not signaled broad support for the measure, with progressives pushing to hold out while moderates grow weary of the shutdown’s toll on food aid and travel. (Axios, Nov. 6)

Implications for the Economy & CRE

• The Congressional Budget Office estimates the shutdown could lower U.S. GDP by $7-$14 billion, contingent on its length. It also anticipates that some losses will be permanent and that fourth-quarter growth may decline by 1-2 percentage points. (CBO, Oct. 29 | Reuters, Oct. 29)
  
  
• As the shutdown continues, federal permitting and financing pipelines remain frozen at HUD and EPA, slowing approvals, infrastructure tie-ins, FHA/HUD loan processing, and other critical CRE project milestones. (CRE, Oct. 29)
  
  
• HUD confirmed this week that it will extend funding for public housing operations and housing voucher payments through December. The move provides short-term relief for property managers and lenders in affordable housing markets, though funding beyond December remains uncertain. (Politico, Nov. 4)
  
  
• CRE leaders note that the economic strain is increasingly tied not to liquidity but to confidence and timing disruptions. CREFC characterizes the situation as a “confidence and timing headwind,” with capital still available yet deployed more cautiously amid growing uncertainty. (CRE Daily, Oct. 29)
  
  
• The ongoing blackout of federal economic data—including jobs and inflation reports—is reinforcing market caution, forcing lenders and investors to rely on private indicators and adopt more conservative underwriting and wider bid-ask spreads. (Bloomberg Law, Nov. 4)
  
  
• Property owners with federal tenants have reported delayed lease renewals and rent payments, creating operational friction and valuation uncertainty. (ENR, Nov. 1)

Supreme Court Weighs Limits on Presidential Tariff Powers

• Beyond Capitol Hill, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Tuesday over whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) permits the president to unilaterally impose sweeping tariffs on imports. (ABC News, Nov. 5 | Axios, Nov. 6)
  
  
• A majority of justices, including Amy Coney Barrett and Neil Gorsuch, expressed skepticism that Congress intended to delegate such expansive authority, questioning whether the power to “regulate” imports extends to imposing duties without explicit legislative approval. (New York Times Nov. 5)
  
  
• If the Court ultimately strikes down the broad tariff strategy, market attention will shift to the administration’s contingency plan for reimbursing billions in duties already paid, a move that could deliver meaningful near-term cash-flow relief for import-reliant developers, operators, and suppliers. (AP News | ConnectCRE, Nov. 5)
  
  
• However, uncertainty surrounding the scope and timing of any refund mechanism may continue to influence procurement and budgeting decisions across the CRE sector.

RER continues to urge Congress to move swiftly toward a bipartisan funding agreement that reopens the government, restarts critical permitting and data functions, and ensures continuity for housing, infrastructure, and financial programs essential to real estate investment and economic growth.