The federal government shutdown—now in its fourth week and the second-longest in U.S. history—shows no sign of ending as partisan divisions deepen and the House remains in recess. (Punchbowl News, Oct. 24)

State of Play

• House Republicans have no plans to reconvene before next week, as negotiations remain stalled over renewing enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, which expire at year’s end. (PoliticoPro, Oct. 23)

• Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has kept the chamber out of session for more than a month, insisting that Democrats must first agree to reopen the government before any negotiations on broader health care or spending issues resume.

• In the Senate, lawmakers have rejected short-term funding bills 12 times since Oct. 1. The latest GOP-led continuing resolution (CR) to fund operations through Nov. 21 failed earlier this week.

• Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has suggested separate votes to fund active-duty military members and air traffic controllers in an effort to increase pressure on Democrats, but the measures have also failed. (Politico | Washington Post, Oct. 23)

Economic and Operational Strains

• The most recent consumer price index showed annual inflation at 3% in September, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to cut rates next week. The shutdown has halted new economic data releases, prompting Fed Chair Jerome Powell to warn that the prolonged “data blackout” could complicate monetary policy. (PoliticoPro, Oct. 24 | Axios, Oct.24)

• Lawmakers on both sides warn that the economic fallout will deepen if the impasse continues, threatening programs vital to housing, infrastructure, and financial markets.

• EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco estimates that the shutdown will cost the U.S. economy roughly $7 billion per week. (BisNow, Oct. 12)

• U.S. GDP could decline by 15-20 basis points per week, though the near-term impact on commercial real estate remains limited, according to Marcus & Millichap. (Marcus & Millichap)

• Cybersecurity risks are rising as agencies such as the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) operate with minimal staff. Businesses report limited federal coordination following the expiration of the Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act of 2015, which had allowed companies to share threat data with the government. (Bloomberg, Oct. 22)

Looking Ahead & What’s at Stake

• Mounting political and economic pressure points are expected to intensify around Nov. 1, when funding shortfalls for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and WIC nutrition benefits are projected, ACA open enrollment begins, and federal workers miss another paycheck—factors that could force both parties back to the negotiating table.

• Federal workforce: Hundreds of thousands of employees will miss a paycheck this week. The Trump administration has reprogrammed limited funds to pay military personnel and some law enforcement officers, yet mass layoffs are underway, and litigation over the firings has already begun.

• Transportation delays: Shortages of air traffic controllers and TSA employees are worsening as paychecks lapse. Speaker Johnson said he will not recall the House to vote on a standalone bill to fund these workers, while Senate leaders may soon force votes on military pay and nutrition benefits ahead of the Nov. 1 cutoff.

• Public assistance: Existing funding for the SNAP program is expected to run out by the end of October. The administration is assessing whether it can reallocate funds to sustain the program, which serves 42 million Americans.

• Health coverage: The start of ACA open enrollment on Nov. 1 is another flashpoint, as Democrats warn that expiring subsidies could drive higher premiums and intensify voter pressure to end the shutdown.

Path Forward

• Lawmakers have floated extending the current stopgap into December or early 2026, but no consensus has emerged. Democrats oppose any measure that provides funding into next year without renewing enhanced ACA subsidies that expire in December.

• The Senate is set to leave Washington until Monday, while the president departs for a 10-day trip to Asia, further dimming hopes for a near-term deal.

RER continues to urge Congress to act responsibly to reopen the government and restore critical housing, insurance, and economic programs essential to real estate investment and growth.