Summary
In response to the Global Financial Crisis in September 2008, the U.S. Treasury placed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into conservatorship under the oversight of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). This action was intended to stabilize the mortgage market and restore confidence in the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs). It also involved an injection of $190 billion of capital, while creating an explicit U.S. government guarantee. The ongoing conservatorship means that the government has total control over these huge government-backed mortgage enterprises, with $7.7 trillion in combined assets.
Conservatorship was not meant to be indefinite. More than 18 years later, the GSEs are in a much stronger financial position and have repaid the $187 billion used to preserve Fannie and Freddie during the financial crisis. Yet, retiring the government’s preferred and common equity stake would require a refinancing of massive scale, a taxpayer gift from the U.S. Treasury of tens of billions of dollars to Fannie and Freddie, or both.
The GSEs are currently "effectively owned" by the U.S. Treasury, which holds senior preferred stock and warrants for 79.9 percent of their common stock. While they have built significant reserves, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that their equity value by early 2027 would still fall short of full recapitalization requirements.
Policymakers have increasingly discussed various reform proposals, including ending the conservatorship, full privatization, hybrid models, and continued government backing with additional safeguards. The administration has set reform as a key priority, yet concrete details have yet to emerge.
As policymakers consider privatization or structural reforms, it is essential to the real estate industry and the broader economy to preserve a well-functioning housing finance system that supports homeownership, expands affordable housing supply, and sustains economic growth.
Key Takeaways
A complete, rapid exit from conservatorship is considered unlikely in the immediate term due to the technical complexity of raising enough capital to meet regulatory requirements. Instead, a gradual transition involving partial share offerings is more likely.
A critical future debate is whether the government will provide a "paid-for explicit guarantee" on GSE mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Without this, critics warn mortgage rates could spike due to increased risk for private investors.
While the House Financial Services Committee has explored a legislative overhaul, no legislation has been introduced. Some experts believe the administration will try to use its existing authority to restructure the Treasury's senior preferred stock into common shares.
However, one key concern for a successful exit is the "explicit guarantee." If the government doesn't legally guarantee the mortgages post-exit, mortgage rates could rise by 0.2 to 0.8 percentage points ($500-$2,000 more per year for a typical buyer). An explicit, paid-for guarantee would likely stabilize the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage but requires an act of Congress.
If Fannie and Freddie are transitioned to private ownership, the process must ensure financial stability, avoid market disruptions, and protect access to affordable mortgages.
Reforms to the GSEs should be part of a larger national transformation in housing policy to unleash a wave of new housing construction and fully address the underbuilding gap, including Yes In My Backyard (YIMBY) policies, property conversion incentives and reforms to zoning and permitting rules, Opportunity Zones, and the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC).
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Preserve Market Liquidity:Â Reforms must preserve sufficient liquidity to avoid higher borrowing that could reduce investment in new housing supply and exacerbate the housing shortage.
Support Affordable Housing Goals:Â GSE reforms should ensure that Fannie and Freddie continue to maintain a strong emphasis on affordable housing and underserved markets.
Ensure Soundness and Stability:Â Any privatization or restructuring must ensure that the GSEs maintain financial strength, mitigate risk to taxpayers, and support long-term market confidence.
Enhance Private Market Capacity: GSE financing efforts should focus on affordable and workforce housing and avoid crowding out private-sector financing and investment in class “A” market-rate apartments. However, reforms must appropriately calibrate any restrictions on multifamily lending to avoid any unintended consequences to aggregate credit capacity—particularly in times of economic distress.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: