Quarterly Sentiment Index – The Real Estate Roundtable

Despite Ongoing Market Challenges, Industry Leaders Expect Improvements in 2024

Posted on February 23, 2024February 23, 2024 by Scott Sherwood

Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer

The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q1 2024 Sentiment Index confirms that commercial real estate property markets continue to experience significant challenges. At the same time, in the coming year industry executives expect monetary policy action reflecting lower inflation to bring greater stability in asset pricing and expanded availability of debt and equity capital.

Cautious Optimism

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Our current Sentiment Index shows improved optimism by industry leaders, compared with previous surveys that highlighted significant market concerns. The Q1 sentiment continues to note challenges presented by ongoing tight capital markets, increased operating expenses, and the continuing uncertainty of post-pandemic, in-office work. However, as the interest rate environment appears to have settled somewhat, executives are now expressing increased optimism that values and capital availability will improve in 2024.”
He added, “As we look at the current and future landscape of commercial real estate, it’s clear that we are at a pivotal moment. With nearly $3 trillion of commercial real estate loans maturing in the next four years, it remains very crucial that lenders continue to work constructively with borrowers to reflect both current and expected economic growth. Markets and asset values continue to adjust and stabilize as office use, interest rates, and inflation begin to normalize.”
All indices of The Roundtable’s Q1 Index are up, compared to the previous quarter and one year ago. The Index—a measure of senior executives’ confidence and expectations about the commercial real estate market environment—is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Economic Sentiment Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive.

Topline Findings

The Real Estate Roundtable's Q1 2024 Sentiment Index

The Q1 2024 Real Estate Roundtable Sentim ent Index registered an overall score of 61, an increase of 17 points from the previous quarter. The Current Index registered 53, a 21-point increase over Q4 2023, and the Future Index posted a score of 70 points, an increase of 13 points from the previous quarter. These increases point to cautious optimism in the real estate market.

There continue to be variations among asset classes and within specific property types as the real estate market rapidly changes. Industrial and multifamily are starting to soften, but retail and hospitality asset classes were identified as being surprisingly resilient. While many office properties have experienced a significant erosion in value, Class A offices continue to outperform.

An overwhelming 79% of survey participants indicate that asset values have decreased compared to the previous year. However, the potential end to interest rate hikes has instilled some industry optimism, with nearly 80% of survey participants expecting asset values to be the same or higher a year from now.

Survey participants continue to emphasize the challenging capital markets landscape, with 86% and 85% of survey participants suggesting that the availability of equity and debt capital, respectively, is the same or worse than a year ago. That said, 67% and 76% believe the availability of equity and debt capital, respectively, will improve a year from now.

Data for the Q1 survey was gathered in January. See the full Q1 report.

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Congress Aims for Continuing Resolution by Nov. 18 Funding Deadline

Posted on November 9, 2023November 9, 2023 by Scott Sherwood

Congress needs to pass a continuing resolution (CR) by next Saturday, Nov. 18 to avoid a partial government shutdown if appropriations bills are not enacted for the fiscal year that began Oct. 1. (CQ and The Hill, Nov. 9)

CR vs Shutdown

New House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) may introduce a funding bill early next week, giving only days for Congress to agree on a CR or risk a partial government shutdown. House Republican leaders have signaled they still may pursue a “laddered” approach—with several spending bills to last until December and the remainder in January. By contrast, The Senate is considering a short-term CR to fund the government until mid-December. (Punchbowl News, Nov. 9)

Another major consideration is a White House $106 billion supplemental request that includes aid for Ukraine and Israel. Republicans have voiced opposition to the package unless President Biden includes policy changes on border security.

Today, Biden commented today that he was “open to discussions about the border” on the tarmac before boarding Air Force One.

The administration has also requested another $56 billion for domestic policies that include childcare, broadband subsidies, and disaster relief. (Roll Call, Nov. 7)

CRE Conditions

Real Estate Roundtable Chairman Emeritus Bill Rudin, above, (Co-Chairman and CEO, Rudin Management Co.) this week discussed challenges facing CRE on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street, including a massive wave of loans that need to be refinanced over the next few years and the need for property conversions.

Rudin emphasized that each CRE sector, and region, is different, noting that multifamily properties and high-quality commercial buildings may be doing well while certain office assets face significant challenges. The Roundtable’s Q4 Sentiment Index released last week reflects these conditions, which include higher financing costs, increased illiquidity, and uncertain post-pandemic user demand. (Roundtable Weekly, Nov. 3 and GlobeSt, Nov. 7)

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Various CRE markets and asset classes need more time to adapt to the new preferences of clients; more flexibility to restructure their asset financing; and patience while adjusting to the evolving valuation landscape. In addition to conversion activities, The Roundtable continues to urge the federal government to return to the workplace and support measures to assist loan modifications and increase liquidity available to all asset classes and their owners. We also remain opposed to regulatory proposals that impede capital formation.” (Roundtable news release, Nov. 3)

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CRE Executives Report Ongoing Financing and Liquidity Issues Causing Price Discovery Difficulties

Posted on November 3, 2023November 3, 2023 by Scott Sherwood

Industry executives report commercial real estate asset classes continue to face a variety of challenges centered around higher financing costs, increased illiquidity, and uncertain post-pandemic user demand. Reduced transaction volume has also contributed to difficult price discovery, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q4 2023 Sentiment Index. (RER news release, Nov. 3)

Pressures on CRE Assets

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Commercial real estate is at the front line of change in how people use the built environment in a post-pandemic society. Steep interest rate increases and diminished liquidity caused by regulatory pressures have led to much lower transaction volume and continued uncertainty in price discovery. The challenges facing different asset classes in the broad, complex CRE landscape is reflected in our Q4 Sentiment Index.”

The Roundtable’s Sentiment Index—a measure of senior executives’ confidence and expectations about the commercial real estate market environment—is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Sentiment Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive.

The Q4 Index comes days after the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a 22-year high of 5.4% and stated it remains open to future increases. “The good news is we’re making progress,” Chair Jerome Powell said.” (Associated Press, Fed press release and Fed news conference video, Nov. 1)

Q4 Sentiment Index Topline Findings:

The Q4 2023 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 44, a decrease of two points from the previous quarter. The Current Index registered 32, a one-point decrease from Q3 2023, and the Future Index posted a score of 57 points, a decrease of two points from the previous quarter. These stable indices highlight the persistent challenges faced by participants in the real estate market.

Although there are variations among asset classes and even within specific property types, ongoing uncertainty within the broader commercial real estate industry persists due to concerns about liquidity, capital availability, interest rates, and remote work. Bright spots exist in smaller classes, such as data centers, outlet malls, and hotels, while multifamily and industrial continue to attract interest. Within the office sector, class “A” properties with top-of-the-line amenities are the lone high performers.
An overwhelming 92% of survey participants indicate that asset values have decreased compared to the previous year. The valuation process has been challenging due to limited transactions, and the combination of current cap rates and fluctuating interest rates has further complicated pricing, ultimately leading to a view that asset values have decreased relative to one year ago.
Survey participants express ongoing concerns about the capital markets landscape, with 70% indicating that the availability of equity capital has worsened compared to a year ago, and 86% believing the availability of debt capital is also worse.

DeBoer, above, added, “We welcome efforts at all levels of government to incentivize conversions of commercial use to residential use. Yet various CRE markets and asset classes need more time to adapt to the new preferences of clients; more flexibility to restructure their asset financing; and patience while adjusting to the evolving valuation landscape. In addition to conversion activities, The Roundtable continues to urge the federal government to return to the workplace and support measures to assist loan modifications and increase liquidity available to all asset classes and their owners. We also remain opposed to regulatory proposals that impede capital formation.”

Some sample responses from participants in the Sentiment Index’s Q4 Survey include:

“Your perspective depends on what assets you hold and the strength of your balance sheet.”

“The distribution of capital is highly dependent on specific sectors and asset quality.”

“There will be a ‘great revaluation’ cycle with more real estate assets priced lower. There haven’t been enough transactions to collect good data, and the transactions that are happening are in the most dire of circumstances, which is driving erratic and less reliable market information.”

Data for the Q4 survey was gathered in October by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on behalf of The Roundtable. See the full Q4 report.

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Commercial Real Estate Executives Optimistic Despite Challenging Market Conditions

Posted on August 16, 2023October 10, 2023 by Trey Jackson

August 16, 2023 (WASHINGTON, D.C.) — Industry leaders remain optimistic about future market conditions while acknowledging uncertainty due to interest rate increases, maturing office loans, financing costs, prolonged remote work policies, and labor productivity, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q3 2023 Sentiment Index.

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Many maturing loans were financed when base rates were near zero and now need to be refinanced in a challenging environment where rates are much higher, values are lower, and markets are less liquid. Higher rates are also contributing to cyclical pressure on valuations. On top of that, remote work has devastated America’s downtowns and stalled office demand.”

DeBoer added, “The economy has undergone significant transformations due to the pandemic. The realities and challenges we face today requires us to rethink how businesses and people use offices, retail, housing, medical care, and more. Future buildings must accommodate the changes to be successful. The Roundtable will continue to advocate and support measures that boost the availability of credit and enhance the formation of capital in the commercial real estate industry, particularly during these times of market uncertainty.”

The Roundtable’s Economic Sentiment Index—a measure of senior executives’ confidence and expectations about the commercial real estate market environment—is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Economic Sentiment Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive.

The Q3 Sentiment Index topline findings include:

All indices reported increases: The Q3 2023 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 46, an increase of five points from the previous quarter. The Current Index registered 33, a six-point increase from Q2 2023, and the Future Index posted a score of 59 points, an increase of four points from the previous quarter.

Disparities between asset classes persist in these challenging market conditions. Hotel and retail markets are largely performing well. Niche asset classes continue to generate interest. On the other hand, office is performing poorly, and rental growth in multifamily and industrial are starting to abate.

Perceptions of declining asset values continue to dominate, with 95% of survey participants reporting that asset values are lower as compared to last year. While Class A properties across all asset classes are trading at competitive prices, managers are still in a “wait and see” mindset for other assets, resulting in lower transaction volumes and an inability to complete accurate valuations.

The availability of capital —both debt and equity—continues to be a pressing topic; 85% and 69% of survey participants, respectively, believe that today’s conditions are more difficult than a year ago. Although managers face a difficult capital raising environment, only 24% and 9% of participants believe debt and equity availability respectively will be worse a year from now as the industry works to creatively solve financing issues.

Data for the Q3 survey was gathered by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf in July. See the full Q3 report.

The Real Estate Roundtable brings together leaders of the nation’s top publicly-held and privately-owned real estate ownership, development, lending and management firms with the leaders of major national real estate trade associations to jointly address key national policy issues relating to real estate and the overall economy.

Commercial Real Estate Executives Optimistic Despite Challenging Market Conditions

Posted on August 11, 2023October 27, 2023 by Trey Jackson

The Q3 Sentiment Index topline findings include:

Data for the Q3 survey was gathered by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf in July. See the full Q3 report.

Real Estate Leaders Report Tighter Liquidity and Difficult Price Discovery

Posted on June 10, 2023October 27, 2023 by Trey Jackson

The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q2 2023 Sentiment Index dropped to an overall score of 41, three points lower than the previous quarter. Commercial real estate executives noted how remote work, high interest rates, operating cost escalations, and difficult price discovery has led to significant uncertainty in the post-pandemic office sector and reduced liquidity for nearly all commercial real estate asset classes.

Stress in Office Sector Threatens Cities, Jobs

Industry leaders also reported relatively healthy Q2 demand for industrial, multifamily, and strip center retail assets. Solid rental growth in multifamily, senior, student, and assisted living sectors was another positive trend reported by sentiment survey participants. (See entire Q2 report.)
Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer, below, said, “The commercial real estate market is at the center of a major transition. Maturing office loans in particular face a new environment of higher operating and financing costs, much tighter bank lending requirements, and uncertainty in business space needs.”

“However, while there is relatively good current news from non-office CRE sectors, the combination of reduced liquidity, increased costs, and post-pandemic business uncertainty threatens to spread to these other sectors as well—and potentially cause great damage to communities, jobs, and the economy. Federal financial institution regulators must act quickly to provide greater supervisory flexibility—as they did in 2009, 2020, and 2022—to allow lenders and borrowers to responsibly restructure the large amount of maturing commercial real estate loans.”
“Businesses and individuals need more time to transition their space needs to the post-pandemic economy. Greater certainty in demand will allow commercial real estate markets, particularly the office sector, to stabilize and revert to its dominant position as the source for local budget revenue. In addition to regulatory flexibility, positive public and private action to encourage in-person, return-to-work policies is needed, where appropriate. As some buildings will need to be reimagined entirely, policy reforms are needed to encourage those buildings to convert to other uses such as housing,” DeBoer added.
The Roundtable’s Sentiment Index—a measure of senior executives’ confidence and expectations about the commercial real estate market environment—is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Sentiment Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive.

Topline Findings

The Q2 Sentiment Index topline findings include:
- The Q2 2023 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 41, a decrease of three points from the previous quarter. The Current Index registered 27, a four-point decrease from Q1 2023, and the Future Index posted a score of 55 points, a decrease of three points from the previous quarter.
- Participants noted the continued disparity between asset classes as well as within them. On one hand, rental demand continues to hold up in the multifamily and industrial sectors. Hotel and retail markets are also largely performing well and niche asset classes continue to generate interest and attract capital. On the other hand, while Class A offices remain desirable, the rest of the office industry is struggling to reposition itself.
- Similar to last quarter, 93% of survey participants believe that asset values have repriced to the downside vs. last year. However, limited trades in 2023 are making it difficult to gauge the market. Survey respondents continue to observe wide disparities in bid-ask spreads.
- The availability of capital, both debt and equity, continues to be a pressing topic. Regarding the availability of debt and equity, 93% and 75% of survey participants, respectively, believe that today’s conditions are more difficult than a year ago. While the cost of capital has universally increased, platform scale and relationships largely determine access and ability to secure debt financing.
Looking to the future, 48% of survey participants stated general market conditions will be more favorable a year from now—although only 20 percent of respondents believe asset values will be more favorable in one year.
Data for the Q2 survey was gathered in April by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf. See the full Q2 report.

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While Uncertainty Remains, Commercial Real Estate Executives Are Optimistic About Future Market Conditions

Posted on February 17, 2023October 27, 2023 by Scott Sherwood

The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q1 Economic Sentiment Index reports that industry executives, while optimistic about the future, remain uncertain about current market conditions, citing inflation, rising interest rates, and supply chain disruptions as concerns. However, executives also express that perceptions and outlooks differ across asset classes, as some remain strong and others show concerns.

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Fundamentally, our Q1 index illustrates that the trends accelerated by the pandemic have led to mixed performances across asset classes. Multifamily and industrial assets have maintained steady growth due to increased housing demand and supply chain needs, while hospitality and student housing are regaining momentum. But in the office sector, remote work policies, concerns over crime and transportation are driving record-high vacancy rates throughout the country, hurting city budgets and small businesses.”

“Looking forward, industry leaders are anticipating the landscape to improve throughout the year, despite recent declines in asset values and the decreased availability of debt and equity capital compared to a year ago. Policymakers should emphasize the need to return to the workplace while considering other innovative solutions such as legislation to convert underutilized offices to housing to entrench this optimism, create jobs, spur economic activity, and increase housing supply and tax revenue,” DeBoer added.

The Roundtable’s Economic Sentiment Index—a measure of senior executives’ confidence and expectations about the commercial real estate market environment—is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Economic Sentiment Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive.

Top Line Findings

The Q1 2023 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 44, an increase of five points from the previous quarter. The Current Index registered at 31, a two-point increase from Q4 2022, and the Future Index posted a score of 58 points, an increase of ten points from the previous quarter.
Several survey respondents acknowledged the dangers of generalizing trends across the commercial real estate industry as the disparities between asset classes grow; multifamily and industrial continue to attract interest, hospitality and student housing are beginning to bounce back, meanwhile Class B office is struggling.
Nearly all survey participants (93%) expressed that asset values have fallen year-over-year. That said, conversations with industry leaders suggest that the market is still in a period of price discovery. With low transaction volume and a limited supply of debt capital, there is lingering uncertainty as to where asset prices will ultimately land.

Survey participants overwhelmingly indicated that the availability of debt and equity capital is worse today compared to one year ago (93% and 82% respectfully). However, over half of participants expect the capital markets landscape to improve over the next 12 months.

Data for the Q1 survey was gathered in January by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf. See the full Q1 report.

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News Release: While Uncertainty Remains, Commercial Real Estate Executives Are Optimistic About Future Market Conditions

Posted on February 17, 2023October 23, 2023 by Scott Sherwood

(WASHINGTON, D.C.) — The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q1 Economic Sentiment Index reports that industry executives, while optimistic about the future, remain uncertain about current market conditions, citing inflation, rising interest rates, and supply chain disruptions as concerns. However, executives also express that perceptions and outlooks differ across asset classes, as some remain strong and others show concerns.

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Fundamentally, our Q1 index illustrates that the trends accelerated by the pandemic have led to mixed performances across asset classes. Multifamily and industrial assets have maintained steady growth due to increased housing demand and supply chain needs, while hospitality and student housing are regaining momentum. But in the office sector, remote work policies, concerns over crime and transportation are driving record-high vacancy rates throughout the country, hurting city budgets and small businesses.”

“Looking forward, industry leaders are anticipating the landscape to improve throughout the year, despite recent declines in asset values and the decreased availability of debt and equity capital compared to a year ago. Policymakers should emphasize the need to return to the workplace while considering other innovative solutions such as legislation to convert underutilized offices to housing to entrench this optimism, create jobs, spur economic activity, and increase housing supply and tax revenue,” DeBoer added.

The Q1 Sentiment Index topline findings include:

The Q1 2023 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 44, an increase of five points from the previous quarter. The Current Index registered at 31, a two-point increase from Q4 2022, and the Future Index posted a score of 58 points, an increase of ten points from the previous quarter.
Several survey respondents acknowledged the dangers of generalizing trends across the commercial real estate industry as the disparities between asset classes grow; multifamily and industrial continue to attract interest, hospitality and student housing are beginning to bounce back, meanwhile Class B office is struggling.
Nearly all survey participants (93%) expressed that asset values have fallen year-over-year. That said, conversations with industry leaders suggest that the market is still in a period of price discovery. With low transaction volume and a limited supply of debt capital, there is lingering uncertainty as to where asset prices will ultimately land.

Survey participants overwhelmingly indicated that the availability of debt and equity capital is worse today compared to one year ago (93% and 82% respectfully). However, over half of participants expect the capital markets to improve over the next 12 months.

Data for the Q1 survey was gathered in January by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf. See the full Q1 report.

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Rising Interest Rates, Tighter Liquidity, Hybrid Work, and Cost Cutting Reflected in Roundtable’s Q4 Sentiment Index

Posted on November 19, 2022October 27, 2023 by Trey Jackson

The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q4 Economic Sentiment Index dropped to an overall score of 39, five points lower than the previous quarter. Commercial real estate executives cited a reduction in available equity and debt capital, changes in post-pandemic office use, general business cost cutting, and employee layoffs among the contributing factors causing market uncertainty and a decrease in transactions. (News Release and Entire Q4 Report, Nov. 18)

Roundtable View Jeffrey DeBoer Real Estate Roundtable

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer, above, said, “Industry executives report that asset valuation difficulties, coupled with the tightened availability and cost of capital, have caused a slowdown in commercial real estate investment and overall transactions. This situation, magnified by steep inflation and interest rate hikes, is leading to investor hesitancy. Additionally, while some businesses are instituting greater return-to-the-workplace policies, many are not, partially due to employee reluctance. Ultimately, greater clarity on businesses’ future post-pandemic workspace demands is needed to provide a more reliable window into asset valuations, particularly in the office sector.”
“As an industry, we’re working with tenants to provide attractive building safety and use amenities—and where possible, converting underutilized property types to other uses, including housing. We continue to urge policymakers and business leaders to push for the safe return of workers to their shared, physical workspace. A back-to-the-workplace movement would increase overall economic productivity and competitiveness, help preserve urban small businesses, and lower the threat to the property tax base of municipalities throughout the nation,” DeBoer added.
The Roundtable’s Economic Sentiment Index—a measure of senior executives’ confidence and expectations about the commercial real estate market environment—is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Economic Sentiment Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive.
Although the Q4 Overall Index registered an Overall score of 39, the Current Index registered 29—a nine-point drop from Q3 2022—and the Future Index posted a score of 48 points, a dip of three points from the previous quarter. (Download Q4 report, Nov. 18)

Market Perspectives

The return of office workers to buildings in New York, Boston, Atlanta, San Francisco and other cities is languishing well below pre-pandemic levels as hybrid work, layoffs and higher interest rates act as drags on the office market, according to a Nov. 17 New York Times article. Despite the headwinds, office owners believe demand will eventually return.
Roundtable Chairman Emeritus (2015-2018) William Rudin (Co-Chairman & CEO, Rudin Management Company, Inc.) noted in the article that occupancy was much higher at buildings occupied by financial companies, many of which have required employees to return to the workplace.
The impact of layoffs, macroeconomic trends, and office demand were discussed this week by Roundtable Board Member Scott Rechler (Chairman CEO, RXR), above, in a CNBC Squawk on the Street interview. Rechler, a member of the New York Fed, said he expects the next 12 to 18 months will be “choppy” as the Federal Reserve continues to fight inflation, but that a strong economy will emerge with significant growth potential.

Economic conditions and commercial real estate markets will be discussed during The Roundtable’s Jan. 24-25 State of the Industry in Washington.

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Commercial Real Estate Executives’ Perceptions Of Industry Fundamentals Hold Steady Despite Current Market Conditions

Posted on August 9, 2022October 27, 2023 by Trey Jackson

Commercial real estate executives continue to view current conditions as significantly less favorable than previous quarters due to rising interest rates, increased inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages. However, leaders’ views of where the markets will be one year from today have improved, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook for the future, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q3 2022 Economic Sentiment Index.

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Our Q3 Sentiment Index reflects many of the challenges our economy and industry have faced since early 2022. While these challenges will continue to be bottlenecks in the near term, CRE leaders are optimistic about the future, as underlying real estate fundamentals, such as housing, remain in high demand.

DeBoer added, “Industrial and multifamily continue to be a source of strength, but office and retail still struggle to regain momentum following the pandemic. These are uncertain times, but quality assets and owners will persevere as they continue to meet fundamental demand.”

The Roundtable’s Overall Q3 2022 Sentiment Index—a reflection of the views of real estate industry leaders—registered an overall score of 44. The Economic Sentiment Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive. The Current Index registered at 38, a 19-point decrease compared to Q2 2022; however, the Future Index registered a score of 51, a 5-point increase from the previous quarter, reflecting leaders’ optimism in future conditions.

Topline findings:

The Q3 2022 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 44, a decrease of 7 points from the previous quarter’s overall score and 34 points lower than a year earlier.

Survey respondents are cautious of rising interest rates, increased inflation, supply chain disruptions, and other issues but remain optimistic regarding the underlying fundamentals for real estate.

While fundamentals, such as industrial and multifamily, remain strong in terms of supply and demand, there is concern over current market conditions for other asset classes, particularly office and retail.

Although in the short-term the pandemic has led to a lack of enthusiasm for office and retail assets, industry leaders expect strong, long-term demand for assets that allow increased flexibility by providing tenants with more amenities and higher quality accommodations.

Rising interest rates and general market uncertainty represent clear challenges facing asset pricing; where trades are taking place, they have been occurring at a discount relative to recent high-water marks.

In terms of capital markets, participants noted that capital is available, though market uncertainty has induced hesitancy for risk-taking and tightening across both debt and equity.

Data for the Q3 survey was gathered in July 2022 by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf. Read the full Q3 report.

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