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RECPAC Meeting Examines Market Shifts, AI’s Impact, and Fed Uncertainty

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The Real Estate Roundtable’s Real Estate Capital Policy Advisory Committee (RECPAC) convened this week in New York to discuss market conditions, the evolving political and regulatory landscape, and emerging trends reshaping commercial real estate—including artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.

Fall RECPAC Meeting

  • RECPAC met Thursday, under the leadership of RECPAC Co-Chairs Bryan McDonnell (Head of U.S. Debt and Chair of Global Debt, PGIM Real Estate), Rex Rudy (EVP, Head of Commercial Real Estate, US Bank), Miriam Wheeler (Global Head Real Estate Finance, Goldman Sachs Asset Management), and Working Group Chair Eric Wu (Sr. Managing Director, Real Estate, Blackstone) to discuss top policy issues heading into 2026.
  • RER Chair Kathleen McCarthy (Global Co-Head, Blackstone Real Estate) kicked off the meeting by welcoming RECPAC members and sharing her insights on real estate credit and capital markets. Other discussions included:
  • Roundtable Senior Vice President Chip Rodgers moderated a fireside chat with Alex Katz (Sr. Managing Director of Government Relations, Blackstone) and discussed the political environment, the recent elections, and issues affecting financial services policy, credit capacity, and capital formation.
  • Trey Morsbach (JLL Capital Markets) moderated a roundtable discussion with Kwasi Benneh (Morgan Stanley), Dan Mullinger (PNC Real Estate), Joel Traut (KKR), and Michael Lavipour (Affinius Capital) on real estate credit markets, liquidity, pricing, and financing.
  • Frank Long (Goldman Sachs) hosted a fireside chat with Eric Wu (Blackstone), followed by a discussion with Brian Baker (J.P. Morgan), Quynh Tran (SMBC), and Andrew Winchall (Blackstone Real Estate Debt Strategies) on the economics and energy demands of Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI is reshaping commercial real estate, as the massive energy demands and high costs of data centers redefine investment and financing metrics.

Interest Rates & The Fed

Tom Barkin
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its September jobs report this week, but due to the government shutdown, it will not publish October or November payroll data until Dec. 16—a week after the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 9-10 policy meeting. (Axios, Nov. 20)
  • The absence of timely data is compounding internal divisions, as minutes show policymakers split over further rate cuts amid high inflation and weakening labor indicators. (Axios, Nov. 19)
  • Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin noted the economy is in an “unattractive” balance and said upcoming data will be essential to determining the path forward. (Reuters, Nov. 18)
  • On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a December cut was needed to stem further job-market deterioration. (NBC News, Nov. 20)
  • Speaking at the Central Bank of Chile Centennial Conference this morning, New York Fed president John Williams said, “I still see room for further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral.” (Axios, Nov. 21)

Roundtable on the Road

  • RER Senior Vice President & Counsel Ryan McCormick spoke at NYU’s Institute on Federal Taxation in San Francisco this week, outlining key One Big Beautiful Bill (OB3) Act implementation priorities, prospects for future real estate tax legislation, and major litigation and guidance affecting partnerships and real estate transactions.
  • Also this week, RER President & CEO Jeffrey DeBoer participated in Commercial Property Executive’s 2026 CRE Outlook webinar, highlighting interest rates, energy and housing affordability, immigration reforms, TRIA reauthorization, and capital-access challenges as key issues for the year ahead. He added that, despite uncertainty around tariff policy, “betting against the U.S. is a bad bet.” (Commercial Property Executive, Nov. 19)

Next on RER’s meeting calendar is the all-member State of the Industry (SOI) Meeting, which will include policy advisory committee sessions, on January 21-22, 2026, in Washington, DC.

House Committees Mark Up Key Housing and Energy Bills

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Policymakers marked up a series of housing and energy measures this week focused on streamlining project approvals, updating efficiency standards, and addressing federal funding for state and local energy laws. The discussions highlighted bipartisan momentum around reforms to bolster grid reliability and reduce housing costs.

SPEED Act Mark Up

  • The House Natural Resources Committee on Thursday marked up the Standardizing Permitting and Expediting Economic Development (SPEED) Act (H.R. 4776) and adopted a bipartisan amendment limiting executive-branch authority to cancel energy project permits, a key issue in broader negotiations. (PoliticoPro, Nov. 20 | Watch Mark-Up)
  • The bill would amend the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) to streamline environmental reviews and reduce litigation delays for projects requiring federal funding and permits. (The Hill, Nov. 17)
  • House Natural Resources Committee Chair Bruce Westerman (R-AR) said, “NEPA reform helps everything. “It helps electrical transmission. It helps pipelines. It helps traditional energy sources. It helps new energy sources. It helps transportation and infrastructure projects.”  If NEPA reform passes “everybody wins,” he added.
  • Jeffrey DeBoer, RER President and CEO, said, “Permitting reform is essential to strengthening the nation’s electric grid and infrastructure. The current patchwork of federal, state and local approvals delays the delivery of affordable, reliable power to homes and commercial buildings. The Roundtable supports efforts—like the SPEED Act—to modernize permitting, improve grid resilience, and ensure the infrastructure needed for long-term economic growth.”
  • The SPEED Act is expected to continue to draw bipartisan support in the House. Ongoing Senate negotiations are reportedly addressing renewable-energy protections, emissions-reduction provisions, and a potential broader package blending transmission policy, clean-energy safeguards, and litigation limits. (E&E News, Nov. 17)
  • Rep. Scott Peters (D-CA) called the bill a “huge step forward,” and urged Democratic colleagues to support it, while seeking further adjustments to curb the executive branch’s ability to cancel energy project permits. (Press Release | PoliticoPro, Nov. 20)

House Energy & Commerce Mark Ups

  • On Wednesday, a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee marked up eight energy-related bills, reflecting contrasting approaches to energy affordability and building efficiency standards as lawmakers debate rising energy and housing costs. (PoliticoPro, Nov. 19 | Committee Press Release )
  • The subcommittee approved several CRE-relevant bills that now move to the full committee for consideration.
  • Energy Choice Act (H.R. 3699): Advanced by voice vote. Aims to prevent state/local laws that would ban the use of natural gas in buildings. (A “ban on gas bans” aligns with RER’s 20-Point Policy Guide on Building Performance Standards)
  • Affordable Housing Over Mandating Efficiency Standards Act (H.R. 5184): Advanced by voice vote. Aims to reduce stringent energy efficiency codes for manufactured housing and negatively impact housing affordability.
  • Homeowner Energy Freedom Act (H.R. 4758): Approved 16–14 along party lines. Aims to eliminate federal funding under the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act, which provides grants to states and localities to support the highest-level energy codes, building electrification mandates, and other building performance standards. (Roundtable Weekly, Feb. 28)
  • Energy Subcommittee Chair Bob Latta (R-OH) said, “The legislation before us today represents an opportunity for this committee to implement reforms that re-prioritize energy efficiency policies toward the items that matter most to consumers: Affordability, availability, and durability.” (PoliticoPro, Nov. 19)

Climate Disclosure Law

  • In other energy news this week, a federal appeals court issued a preliminary injunction halting enforcement of California’s SB 261, requiring companies with at least $500M in global revenue to report climate-related financial risks starting January 2026. (ESG Dive | PoliticoPro, Nov. 18)
  • The court blocked SB 261, pending litigation over First Amendment concerns. It did not block SB 253, which requires corporations with $1B+ in revenue to begin reporting scope 1 and 2 emissions in 2026, and scope 3 in 2027. The trial on the First Amendment claim is scheduled for October 2026. (RER Fact Sheet, 2023; RW Sept. 2023)

RER will continue working with policymakers as Congress weighs permitting reform and energy policy measures that directly affect commercial real estate investment, housing supply, and the reliability of the nation’s power grid

Roundtable Weekly Will Resume Publication on December 5, 2025

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The Roundtable’s policy news digest will resume publication on Friday, December 5, 2025

Recent issues of Roundtable Weekly can be searched by keyword here.

What the Government’s Reopening Means for CRE Policy Priorities

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The new stopgap extends government funding only through Jan. 30, leaving appropriators less than two months to complete the remaining FY2026 bills. With the government reopened, housing, permitting, tax, and energy policy issues are again at the forefront of congressional debates. (PoliticoPro, Nov. 13)

Housing

  • HOME Program: House Financial Services Housing and Insurance Subcommittee Chair Rep. Mike Flood (R-NE) plans to restart bipartisan work on legislation updating HUD’s HOME Investment Partnerships Program, which supports affordable housing development for low-income households. Rep. Flood hopes to hold a hearing with HUD Secretary Scott Turner, though the compressed calendar may limit year-end action. (PoliticoPro, Nov. 13) (Roundtable Weekly, July 18, Sept. 5)
  • Housing Supply: The Housing Supply Expansion Act of 2025 (S.2414) is a proposed set of provisions, not a standalone bill, that aims to increase housing supply by modernizing regulations and streamlining development processes. Key components include eliminating the permanent chassis requirement for manufactured homes to lower costs, simplifying environmental review processes, and providing incentives for local governments to adopt more pro-growth housing policies. It is part of broader legislative packages like the ROAD to Housing Act of 2025 (S. 2651) and the Strengthening Housing Supply Act of 2025 (H.R.5077).
  • The ROAD to Housing Act of 2025 (S. 2651), included in the Senate-passed National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), is on track for a House vote in December, according to House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers (R-AL). (PoliticoPro, Nov. 14) (Roundtable Weekly, Oct. 17)
  • Portable Mortgages: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Bill Pulte said Wednesday the administration is actively evaluating portable mortgages, which would allow homeowners to transfer an existing mortgage rate when buying a new home, an attempt to break the current “lock-in effect.” (Bloomberg, Nov. 12)
  • RER President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer raised a similar supply-focused idea during the National Summit on the Housing Affordability Crisis in September. He noted that affordability challenges stem from constrained supply, limited mobility in the for-sale market, and high development costs—and that portable mortgage–style tools could be part of the solution. (Roundtable Weekly, Sept. 5)

Permitting & Energy

  • Permitting remains one of the most consequential issues for real estate investment, energy transmission, construction timelines, and infrastructure reliability. House Republicans are preparing a major overhaul aimed at accelerating approvals of energy and infrastructure projects. (Roundtable Weekly, Oct. 10)
  • House Outlook: House Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman (R-AR) plans to mark up the SPEED Act, co-led by Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME), which would streamline NEPA reviews and limit legal challenges. Democrats secured “permit certainty” language to prevent agencies from indefinitely stalling approvals. (PoliticoPro, Nov. 12)
  • “To keep energy prices from escalating, we have to build more energy and more energy infrastructure, or the supply and demand is going to overpower any policy you can do in Washington D.C.,” Westerman said. “We’ve got to get electricity prices stabilized.” (PoliticoPro, Nov. 12)
  • Senate Outlook: Broader Senate negotiations may include updates to Clean Water Act reviews and reforms to transmission siting, both critical for meeting surging electricity demand from AI data centers and maintaining grid reliability.

Tax and Tariff Policy

  • Section 899: The U.S. continues to push for Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) ratification of its carveout from the global minimum tax agreement (Pillar Two). Without an agreement, Republicans could revive legislation to enact “retaliatory tax measures” against foreign companies and taxpayers, including real estate investors, that reside in countries deemed to impose discriminatory taxes. (PoliticoPro, Nov. 13)
  • Over the weekend, President Trump floated the idea of issuing tariff rebate checks to American taxpayers, a “dividend” he suggested could total at least $2,000 per person, excluding high-income households. (ABC News | Bloomberg, Nov. 10)
  • These proposals have renewed speculation that Congress may pursue a tax package next year. A tax bill, pursued through budget reconciliation rules, could be a vehicle for other tax proposals related to health care, housing, and affordability issues.

Roundtable on the Road

  • This week, Jeffrey DeBoer participated in the Stanford Professionals in Real Estate (SPIRE) 2025 SREC Fall Conference in California with RER board member Michael Lowe (Co-CEO, Lowe), where he discussed the reopening of the government, the path ahead on appropriations, and RER’s policy priorities.
  • He also highlighted how recent election results have intensified focus on housing affordability, permitting reform, and practical policy solutions that support real estate investment and community growth.

RER will continue working with lawmakers to provide insights and advance practical solutions as Congress moves into a compressed legislative window.

Government Reopens After Record Shutdown; Key Housing and Insurance Programs Restored

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The federal government reopened late Wednesday after a 43-day shutdown, the longest in U.S. history, as Congress approved a short-term funding bill keeping agencies running through Jan. 30, 2026.  (The Hill, Nov. 13)

State of Play

  • The Senate approved the bipartisan package Monday night in a 60–40 vote, with seven Democrats and Angus King (I-ME) joining Republicans to advance the deal. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) was the only Republican “no” vote. (Punchbowl News, Nov. 12)
  • The House passed the measure on a 222–209 vote, with six Democrats joining all but two Republicans, on Wednesday night. President Trump signed the bill hours later, ending weeks of halted federal services, frozen benefits, and widespread economic disruptions. (Washington Post, Nov. 12)
  • “This is no way to run a country,” Trump said while signing the bill that ended the shutdown. “I hope we can all agree the government should never be shut down again.” (Roll Call, Nov. 12)
  • The agreement includes full-year FY2026 appropriations for Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, and the Legislative Branch, while extending funding for all other agencies for 11 additional weeks. The deal reverses thousands of federal layoffs proposed during the shutdown and guarantees back pay for more than 1.25 million furloughed or unpaid federal employees. (Punchbowl News, Nov. 13)
  • In exchange, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) guaranteed Senate Democrats a mid-December vote on extending the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced tax credits. Extending the health insurance subsidies was the Democrats’ primary demand during the shutdown. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) made no promise for a similar vote in the House.  (Politico, Nov. 12)

What’s Restored: NFIP, HUD Programs, Federal Services

  • National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP): The NFIP, which lapsed during the shutdown, has been temporarily reauthorized through Jan. 30. New policies can now be issued and existing policies renewed, removing a major barrier for commercial and residential transactions. This is the program’s 34th short-term extension since 2017 as lawmakers continue pursuing a long-term fix.
  • Section 8 & HUD Rental Assistance: HUD is authorized to repurpose carryover funds within the Housing Choice Voucher Program to ensure the full renewal of existing rental assistance at current fair market rents through Jan. 30. This measure prevents disruptions for property owners and the millions of low-income households relying on stable voucher support. (PoliticoPro, Nov. 11)
  • Other Federal Operations: SNAP benefits for 42 million Americans will resume in full, while air traffic control, TSA operations, farm loan processing, and other federal services return to normal as national parks and benefits offices reopen. The agreement also halts proposed federal layoffs through the end of January.

What’s Next

  • “Reopening the government is a welcome and necessary step that restores stability to federal operations, housing programs, and the broader economy,” said Jeffrey DeBoer, President and CEO of The Real Estate Roundtable. “It also restores the federal economic data that lenders and investors rely on to plan and facilitate transactions.”
  • Major hurdles remain, including the lack of an agreed-upon topline spending level, the Senate’s push to advance a five-bill package that includes Transportation-HUD, and the House’s need to accelerate committee work after weeks of inactivity.
  • FY2026 funding bills for Energy, EPA, Homeland Security, State, and Treasury/IRS still require difficult bipartisan negotiations.

Another shutdown is possible if Congress fails to meet the Jan. 30 deadline.

Kathleen McCarthy to Depart Blackstone

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Blackstone announced this week that Kathleen McCarthy, global co-head of Blackstone Real Estate, will step down from the firm at the end of the year after an impactful 15-year tenure. As Chair of The Real Estate Roundtable (RER), she will continue to lead the organization’s policy agenda, member engagement and industry outreach. (Bloomberg | CoStar, Nov. 11)

  • McCarthy said: “It is a privilege to serve as chair of The Real Estate Roundtable and work positively alongside industry leaders I deeply respect. I look forward to continuing to do so as the next chapter in my professional career evolves.”
  • Jeffrey DeBoer, RER President and CEO, stated, “Kathleen’s leadership of The Roundtable will continue to strengthen our advocacy program, enhance service to our membership, and deliver positive national policy results for the industry.”

Next on RER’s meeting calendar is the all-member State of the Industry (SOI) Meeting, which will include policy advisory committee sessions, on January 21–22, 2026, in Washington, DC.

NEWS: Commercial Real Estate Confidence Holds Steady as Market Stabilizes, Q4 Sentiment Index Shows

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(WASHINGTON, D.C.) — The Real Estate Roundtable’s (RER) Q4 2025 Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 67, equivalent to the prior quarter, reflecting that commercial real estate executives’ sentiment has shifted from caution toward guarded optimism as markets stabilize, transaction activity resumes, and expectations build for easing interest rates in 2026.

The Current Index rose one point to 64, while the Future Index dipped slightly to 69, together indicating confidence that the worst disruptions of recent years have passed—even as policy uncertainty and uneven capital access continue to shape near-term decision-making.

Industry leaders credited easing rate pressures and increased market activity for boosting optimism, despite tariffs and shifting policy signals posing persistent challenges.

“Real estate executives see encouraging momentum,” said Jeffrey DeBoer, RER President and CEO. “Roundtable members are reporting steady improvement and renewed confidence across sectors. Despite improvements, tariffs continue to drive up development costs and complicate business planning. Moreover, the record-long government shutdown is disrupting infrastructure and construction permitting, and access to current economic data that companies rely on to plan. Clear, consistent, and coordinated policies from Washington are essential to unlock capital and support long-term economic growth in communities nationwide.”

The Q4 Sentiment Index topline findings include:

  • The Q4 2025 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 67, equivalent to the previous quarter. The Current Index registered a score of 64, a 1-point increase over Q3 2025. The Future Index posted a score of 69 points, a decrease of 2 points from the previous quarter, reflecting sentiment that the market has largely stabilized and is now transitioning from caution to guarded optimism. Many participants anticipate stronger transaction activity in 2026 as interest rates ease and confidence builds, yet acknowledge that political and policy uncertainty continue to temper near-term enthusiasm.
  • Although perspectives vary by asset class, overall market sentiment remains positive. Only 13% of respondents believe that general market conditions are worse than this time last year, while 63% believe that general market conditions are better than this time last year. More than two-thirds (70%) of Q4 survey participants expect general market conditions to show improvement one year from now. Leaders reported continued strength in residential sectors, alongside steady improvement in retail and hospitality. Office remains the most challenged asset class, though signs of stabilization are emerging in top-tier markets.
  • Forty-three percent (43%) of respondents believe asset values are roughly unchanged compared to a year ago. A large minority of participants see green shoots, with 42% believing asset prices have increased and only 15% believing they have declined. Looking ahead, the outlook is optimistic: 72% expect asset prices to rise over the next year, 24% believe asset values will remain stable, and only 4% anticipate a slight decline.
  • Perceptions on the availability of equity capital relative to last quarter are muted, although nearly half (48%) of respondents still believe equity availability is better compared to a year ago. On the other hand, sentiment around debt capital has risen significantly, as 78% said the availability of debt capital has improved from last year. Looking forward, 64% of respondents believe that equity capital availability will be better in one year and 56% believe debt capital availability will be better.

Sample responses from participants in the Sentiment Index’s Q4 survey include:

“Market conditions have strengthened, and real estate has benefited from overall market optimism, driven by expectations of continued rate cuts on the short end of the curve and confidence that the economy will avoid a recession.”

“Equity is coming in, but real estate has lots of competition among infrastructure, private markets, etc.”

“Tariffs have been a disaster for our industry, not only because the cost of materials is higher, but also because of the uncertainty they create which significantly hampers the ability to make decisions.”

Data for the Q4 survey was gathered by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on RER’s behalf in October. See the full Q4 report.

The Real Estate Roundtable (RER) brings together leaders of the nation’s top publicly-held and privately-owned real estate ownership, development, lending and management firms with the leaders of major national real estate trade associations to jointly address key national policy issues relating to real estate and the overall economy.

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EPA’s Reorganization Plan Includes ENERGY STAR

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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released its long-awaited reorganization of various program offices on Monday. It lists ENERGY STAR–the voluntary federal public-private partnership promoting efficiency in buildings and appliances–as falling under the newly structured Office of Radiation and Indoor Air (“ORIA”). (EPA website | E&E News, Nov. 3)

Agency Restructuring

  • The new ORIA office, which includes ENERGY STAR, is part of EPA’s ongoing “comprehensive restructuring efforts” and staff reduction plans announced this summer. (EPA press release, July 18)
  • For example, EPA reorganized its research office in October–carrying through on Administrator Lee Zeldin’s May testimony to Congress. (E&E News, Oct. 20)
  • EPA’s new structure acts on a Feb. 26 memo of the White House Office of Management and Budget (“OMB”) directing all agencies to implement plans to reorganize, streamline, and reduce federal staff. The OMB memo itself stems from the DOGE Executive Order signed by President Donald Trump on Jan. 20.

Industry Advocacy

  • In May, Zeldin stated to Congress that EPA was considering whether it might be appropriate to privatize ENERGY STAR. This followed a proposed White House budget to eliminate a now-defunct EPA office that previously housed ENERGY STAR. (Roundtable Weekly, May 9)
  • RER and leading real estate organizations responded with letters to EPA (April 4) and the Department of Energy (May 14), highlighting ENERGY STAR’s importance for U.S. buildings and explaining why ENERGY STAR should remain a federal program. (Roundtable Weekly, May 23)
  • A multi-industry coalition followed suit. Trade associations representing real estate, product manufacturers, consumer technology, and retailers took the issue to Congress. Their June 6 letter emphasizes that ENERGY STAR is a statutorily required federal program that cannot be privatized. (Roundtable Weekly, June 6)
  • These efforts resulted in ENERGY STAR funding approved by House and Senate Appropriations Committees. Both chambers have clearly signaled that ample funds for EPA’s buildings and appliance partnership program are available once the government reopens. (Roundtable Weekly July 25; Sept. 5)

ENERGY STAR Continues During Shutdown

  • While EPA’s funding bill for FY ’26 (that started Oct. 1) has yet to pass the full Congress and reach President Trump’s desk, ENERGY STAR has continued to function amid the ongoing shutdown. For example:
  • The open-access federal contracting database shows that the consultant contract to support ENERGY STAR for commercial buildings is paid through at least July 13, 2026.
  • While ENERGY STAR finds a place in EPA’s new indoor air office–with Congress prepared to fund it, and the program continuing during the shutdown–EPA’s overall reorganization continues. An agency spokesperson reportedly stated, “No final decision has been made at this time” regarding ENERGY STAR’s long-term status. (New York Times, Nov. 1)

RER and our industry partners will continue to track these events closely. The coalition will advocate for EPA to operate the bipartisan, highly successful ENERGY STAR program robustly and efficiently once the government reopens.

Shutdown Stretches Into Second Month as Washington Stalemate Hardens

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The government shutdown, now in its sixth week, continues to strain markets. Despite some bipartisan progress, the path to reopening remains uncertain as the economic fallout spreads across housing, infrastructure, and other sectors.

State of Play

  • Early this week, bipartisan senators began exploring a short-term compromise to pair a continuing resolution (CR) with a vote on extending Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies. (CBS News, Nov. 5) 
  • Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) requested a meeting with President Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to discuss expiring ACA subsidies and a reopening framework. (Politico, Nov. 5)
  • By midweek, a group of Senate Democrats signaled openness to a GOP plan that would extend government funding through January, include an appropriations package, and advance an ACA subsidy vote. (PoliticoPro, Nov. 6)
  • President Trump urged Republicans to “get the government back open immediately,” linking GOP election losses to the stalemate, while Democratic leaders encouraged colleagues not to “cave” to pressure to compromise on key priorities. (CBS News | Politico, Nov. 5)
  • Majority Leader Thune said Republicans are finalizing a “minibus” to serve as the vehicle for a deal, though hurdles remain on both sides. (PoliticoPro, Nov. 6)
  • Expected travel delays remain a potential flashpoint in negotiations, as Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said the federal government would reduce airline traffic by 10 percent at 40 locations beginning on Friday if the shutdown continues. (CBS News, Nov. 5)
  • Majority Leader Thune intends to hold a vote to advance a funding package on Friday. Democrats have not signaled broad support for the measure, with progressives pushing to hold out while moderates grow weary of the shutdown’s toll on food aid and travel. (Axios, Nov. 6)

Implications for the Economy & CRE

  • The Congressional Budget Office estimates the shutdown could lower U.S. GDP by $7-$14 billion, contingent on its length. It also anticipates that some losses will be permanent and that fourth-quarter growth may decline by 1-2 percentage points. (CBO, Oct. 29 | Reuters, Oct. 29)

  • As the shutdown continues, federal permitting and financing pipelines remain frozen at HUD and EPA, slowing approvals, infrastructure tie-ins, FHA/HUD loan processing, and other critical CRE project milestones. (CRE, Oct. 29)

  • HUD confirmed this week that it will extend funding for public housing operations and housing voucher payments through December. The move provides short-term relief for property managers and lenders in affordable housing markets, though funding beyond December remains uncertain. (Politico, Nov. 4)

  • CRE leaders note that the economic strain is increasingly tied not to liquidity but to confidence and timing disruptions. CREFC characterizes the situation as a “confidence and timing headwind,” with capital still available yet deployed more cautiously amid growing uncertainty. (CRE Daily, Oct. 29)

  • The ongoing blackout of federal economic data—including jobs and inflation reports—is reinforcing market caution, forcing lenders and investors to rely on private indicators and adopt more conservative underwriting and wider bid-ask spreads. (Bloomberg Law, Nov. 4)

  • Property owners with federal tenants have reported delayed lease renewals and rent payments, creating operational friction and valuation uncertainty. (ENR, Nov. 1)

Supreme Court Weighs Limits on Presidential Tariff Powers

  • Beyond Capitol Hill, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Tuesday over whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) permits the president to unilaterally impose sweeping tariffs on imports. (ABC News, Nov. 5 | Axios, Nov. 6)

  • A majority of justices, including Amy Coney Barrett and Neil Gorsuch, expressed skepticism that Congress intended to delegate such expansive authority, questioning whether the power to “regulate” imports extends to imposing duties without explicit legislative approval. (New York Times Nov. 5)

  • If the Court ultimately strikes down the broad tariff strategy, market attention will shift to the administration’s contingency plan for reimbursing billions in duties already paid, a move that could deliver meaningful near-term cash-flow relief for import-reliant developers, operators, and suppliers. (AP News | ConnectCRE, Nov. 5)

  • However, uncertainty surrounding the scope and timing of any refund mechanism may continue to influence procurement and budgeting decisions across the CRE sector.

RER continues to urge Congress to move swiftly toward a bipartisan funding agreement that reopens the government, restarts critical permitting and data functions, and ensures continuity for housing, infrastructure, and financial programs essential to real estate investment and economic growth.

Commercial Real Estate Confidence Holds Steady as Market Stabilizes, Q4 Sentiment Index Shows

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The Real Estate Roundtable’s (RER) Q4 2025 Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 67, equivalent to the prior quarter, reflecting that commercial real estate executives’ sentiment has shifted from caution toward guarded optimism as markets stabilize, transaction activity resumes, and expectations build for easing interest rates in 2026.

Topline Findings

The Q4 Sentiment Index topline findings include:

  • The Q4 2025 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 67, equivalent to the previous quarter. The Current Index registered a score of 64, a 1-point increase from Q3 2025. The Future Index posted a score of 69 points, a 2-point decrease from the previous quarter, reflecting sentiment that the market has largely stabilized and is now transitioning from caution to guarded optimism. Many participants anticipate stronger transaction activity in 2026 as interest rates ease and confidence builds, yet acknowledge that political and policy uncertainty continue to temper near-term enthusiasm.
  • Although perspectives vary by asset class, overall market sentiment remains positive. Only 13% of respondents believe that general market conditions are worse than this time last year, while 63% believe that general market conditions are better than this time last year. More than two-thirds (70%) of Q4 survey participants expect general market conditions to show improvement one year from now. Leaders reported continued strength in residential sectors, alongside steady improvement in retail and hospitality. Office remains the most challenged asset class, though signs of stabilization are emerging in top-tier markets.
  • 43% of respondents believe asset values are roughly unchanged compared to a year ago. A large minority of participants see green shoots, with 42% believing asset prices have increased and only 15% believing they have declined. Looking ahead, the outlook is optimistic: 72% expect asset prices to rise over the next year, 24% believe asset values will remain stable, and only 4% anticipate a slight decline.
  • Perceptions on the availability of equity capital relative to last quarter are muted, although nearly half (48%) of respondents still believe equity availability is better compared to a year ago. On the other hand, sentiment around debt capital has risen significantly, as 78% said the availability of debt capital has improved from last year. Looking forward, 64% of respondents believe that equity capital availability will be better in one year and 56% believe debt capital availability will be better.

Roundtable View

  • RER President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Real estate executives see encouraging momentum. Roundtable members are reporting steady improvement and renewed confidence across sectors. Despite improvements, tariffs continue to drive up development costs and complicate business planning. Moreover, the record-long government shutdown is disrupting infrastructure and construction permitting, and access to current economic data that companies rely on to plan”
  • He added, “Clear, consistent, and coordinated policies from Washington are essential to unlock capital and support long-term economic growth in communities nationwide.”

Data for the Q4 survey was gathered by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on RER’s behalf in October. See the full Q4 report.