Tag: The Fed

Fed’s Beige Book Highlights Uncertainty; CRE Leaders Cautious on Outlook

Posted on by abigail_grenadier
The Federal Reserve in Washington, DC

As the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book reveals, the U.S. economy is continuing to adjust to shifting conditions, with commercial real estate leaders focusing on strategies to navigate ongoing uncertainty and emerging opportunities. (The Fed, June 4)

Beige Book Findings

  • The Beige Book published this week, reported that “all Districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which have led to hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions.”
  • The report, based on surveys and interviews conducted through May 23, noted that the overall outlook remains “slightly pessimistic and uncertain,” unchanged from the prior report. (Bloomberg, June 4)
  • Nine of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reported either a contraction in economic activity or no change in growth; only a few districts, including Richmond, Atlanta, and Chicago, experienced modest growth. (Market Watch, June 4)
  • Commercial construction and real estate activity also declined overall, with the office sector continuing to lag. In San Francisco, construction activity remained subdued due to uncertainty over trade policy and rising material costs. (The Fed, June 4)
  • Tariffs were mentioned 122 times in the report, compared to 107 times in April, reflecting rising concerns about inflationary pressures. (CNBC, June 4)
  • In Boston, the Fed noted deals took longer to close, and “foreign investors grew generally skittish about investing in the United States.”

Economic Conditions & CRE

  • This week, during Lument’s webcast, “Turning Point: Multifamily Strategies Amidst Policy and Economic Shifts,” RER’s President & CEO Jeffrey DeBoer discussed how federal policies, including tariffs, liquidity, and the ongoing tax debates in Washington, are reshaping investor strategies.
  • DeBoer also emphasized that uncertainty and volatility are hindering investment decisions, mirroring the Beige Book’s findings of delayed business spending.
  • RER’s Q2 Sentiment Survey reflected similar caution, with the index falling to 54 as executives cited policy uncertainty, rising costs, and muted investor confidence—echoing the Beige Book’s insights on slowing activity and elevated economic risk. (Roundtable Weekly, May 23)
  • On Wednesday, the administration doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, adding further pressure on construction costs and heightening unpredictability. (BisNow, June 4)
  • In the May edition of ULI’s Economist Snapshot, RER’s Senior Vice President Clifton E. “Chip” Rodgers Jr. weighed in on how rising tariffs and trade tensions are impacting U.S. commercial real estate—from delayed development timelines to increasing construction costs and reduced foreign investment. (ULI, May 13)

What’s Next

The Fed will consider the Beige Book findings at its June 17–18 meeting as it navigates a delicate balancing act between persistent inflation risks and ongoing trade tensions.

Fed Holds Steady on Rates Amid Economic Uncertainty

Posted on by Trey Jackson

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it will maintain its benchmark federal funds rate at the current 4.25-4.50 percent range, citing heightened economic uncertainty linked primarily to recent tariff policies.

Fed’s Decision

  • The decision reflects cautiousness by Fed policymakers amid rising inflation expectations and slower projected economic growth. (AP, March 19)
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted ongoing economic uncertainty, citing the Trump administration’s potential “significant policy changes” on trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. (Opening Statement, March 19)
  • “It’s the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy,” Powell said. “Uncertainty around the changes and their effects on the economic outlook is high.”
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell also emphasized that uncertainty is “unusually elevated,” largely due to the Trump administration’s extensive import tariffs.
  • “Clearly, a good part of [inflation] is coming from tariffs,” Powell stated, adding that while tariffs may temporarily delay inflation reduction, he believes the effect will ultimately prove transitory.

Looking Ahead

  • Powell stated that the Fed will take a patient, data-driven approach to future rate decisions.
  • “We’re not going to be in any hurry to move,” Powell said. “Our current policy stance is well-positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we face.”
  • According to the Fed’s quarterly projections, officials expect GDP to grow 1.7 percent this year, a drop from their 2.1 percent estimate in December.
  • While Fed policymakers still anticipate two quarter-percentage-point rate cuts by year-end, consistent with their December forecast, this expectation primarily reflects concerns over slowing economic growth counterbalancing rising inflation and what Powell described as uncertainty-driven “inertia” given the unclear outlook. (Reuters, March 19)

Pressure From The White House

  • President Trump criticized the Fed’s cautious approach via Truth Social, advocating for rate cuts, stating, “The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S. Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy. Do the right thing.” (ABC News, March 20)
  • Earlier this week, President Trump nominated Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman as vice chair for supervision, the central bank’s top regulatory position. (Bloomberg, March 17)
  • Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) applauded the nomination and called Bowman an important voice in “pushing back on burdensome rules.”

Implications for CRE

  • The decision to maintain current interest rates carries significant implications for commercial real estate. Stable and lower interest rates can provide a more predictable environment for financing and investment decisions.
  • The Fed’s decision reinforces findings from our Q1 2025 Sentiment Index that the CRE industry remains in a transitional period. Released in February, the Index showed signs of market stability—but also lingering uncertainty over tariffs, expiring tax cuts and regulatory reforms that could slow investment and economic growth. (Roundtable Weekly, Feb. 21)
  • Heightened economic uncertainty, particularly from tariff policies, could dampen investment activity and make it challenging to attract foreign capital—both critical elements needed to drive economic growth.
  • Reduced investment activity also risks hindering development projects, including the creation of affordable housing, and could slow ongoing efforts to revitalize communities and cities still recovering from pandemic disruptions. (CBRE, March 19)

RER will continue to track coverage on interest rates and tariffs, and the implications for commercial real estate.

Fed Cuts Rates Again: Slower Path Ahead Amid Inflation Concerns

Posted on by Trey Jackson

The Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point Wednesday, bringing it to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. While the cut provides some relief to borrowers, the central bank signaled a more cautious pace for future rate reductions as inflationary pressures persist. (Axios, Dec. 18)

Why It Matters

  • The Fed’s decision reflects its effort to balance slowing inflation with a resilient economy.
  • Powell cited recent data, and not just potential policy changes, justified an adjustment to the inflation forecast. Additionally, the labor market has proven more resilient than officials anticipated when they began rate cuts in September. (WSJ, Dec. 18)
  • “We are at or near a point at which it will be appropriate to slow the pace of further adjustments,” Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters at a press conference on Wednesday, referring to the decision to cut rates. (Press Conference, Dec. 18)
  • The Fed’s latest quarterly projections suggest a slower path to lower rates, with officials anticipating only two rate cuts in 2025, down from four or five predicted in September. (AP News, Dec. 18)
  • Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, dissented from the decision, advocating for steady rates.

Looking Ahead

  • The incoming Trump administration is expected to pursue policies such as deregulation, tax cuts, and a growth-focused agenda.
  • While policies like deregulation and tax cuts could stimulate growth, tariffs and deportations threaten to exacerbate inflationary pressures.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that some officials have started factoring in “highly conditional estimates” of the potential economic impacts of Trump administration policies into their forecasts.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) emphasized that further cuts would depend on incoming data, stating it will assess “the extent and timing” of future adjustments. (Summary of Economic Projections, Dec. 18)
  • The Fed now projects inflation to reach 2.5% in 2025, higher than its September forecast of 2.1%, reflecting expectations of slower progress in curbing price increases. (CBS, Dec. 18)
  • For CRE, adaptability remains key as the macroeconomic environment evolves.

The Fed’s next meeting will be January 28-29, 2025, a week after inauguration, and RER’s all-member State of the Industry (SOI) Meeting on January 22-23. 

CRE Leaders Gather to Discuss Elections, Economy, Housing and More

Posted on by Trey Jackson
Roundtable Chair Kathleen McCarthy (Global Co-Head of Blackstone Real Estate, Blackstone)

This week’s Fall Roundtable meeting came at a pivotal time for commercial real estate, as key policy issues take center stage in Washington. Discussions focused on national policies impacting the industry, including the implications of the recent elections, challenges in capital and credit markets, expiration of the 2017 tax bill, and the federal government’s role in supporting housing supply and regulating energy usage. (Bisnow, Nov. 11)

The meeting also covered topics such as return-to-office trends, office-to-residential conversions, and liquidity concerns. (The Roundtable’s  Fall 2024 Policy Priorities and Executive Summary)

Speakers & Policy Issues

Roundtable members engaged in policy issue discussions with the following guests:

  • Reince Priebus, former White House Chief of Staff (President Trump) and the longest-serving chairman of the Republican National Committee in modern history, gave his perspective on the recent elections, dynamics on Capitol Hill, and potential focus of the new administration in 2025.
(L-R) Roundtable President & CEO Jeffrey DeBoer & Reince Preibus
  • Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) is the current ranking member and presumed next chair of the influential Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee and a senior member of the Senate Finance Committee. Sen. Scott advocated for expanding business and homeownership, enhancing financial literacy, and improving affordable housing by reducing regulations and advancing zoning reforms to foster economic growth and equity in communities.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)
  • The Honorable Tom Barkin (President & Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond), provided a candid assessment of economic recovery and the challenges ahead. He also questioned the fundamental demand for office space as companies reassess their needs in a post-pandemic environment. (Reuters, Nov. 14)
(L-R) RER Board Secretary Jodie McLean (CEO, EDENS) and Tom Barkin
  • Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA) (Ranking Member, House Committee on Ways and Means), addressed the significance and major takeaways of the recent election and the outlook for tax and trade policy going forward. He discussed affordable housing incentives, such as the Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) and the bipartisan Revitalizing Downtowns and Main Streets Act (H.R.9002), and extending tax provisions like Section 199A, capital gains. (RER’s Tax Policy Priorities)
Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA)

Next on The Roundtable’s meeting calendar is the all-member State of the Industry (SOI) Meeting, which will include policy advisory committee meetings, on January 22-23, 2025 in Washington, DC. 

Impact of Rate Cuts on CRE and Housing Markets

Posted on by Trey Jackson

The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut rates renewed optimism in the commercial real estate market, following a prolonged period of high interest rates and economic headwinds. This monetary easing is seen as critical to the CRE sector’s path to recovery—reducing financing costs and helping stabilize property valuations.

Industry Insights

  • These predicted rate cuts, alongside lower bond yields, are expected to boost commercial real estate investment activity and asset values. (CBRE, Sept. 18)
  • Roundtable member Willy Walker (CEO, Walker & Dunlop) appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box, to discuss the importance of removing barriers such as zoning restrictions to increase housing supply. “It’s going to be a very healthy market for commercial real estate as rates start to come down.” (Watch)
  • Roundtable member David O’Reilly (CEO, Howard Hughes Holdings) discussed the resurgence of new construction in the housing market on Fox Business, anticipating that home prices will stabilize in response to interest rates cuts, influencing both demand and affordability. He also highlighted the effects of prolonged high rates on pricing and market trends. “As long as those rates continue to trend lower… demand picks up, more sales occur, prices will remain steady as home builders continue to deliver more supply to meet that demand.” (Watch)

Housing Affordability at the Forefront

  • The Senate Budget Committee, chaired by Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), held a hearing this Wednesday, Sept. 25, on housing unaffordability. The hearing focused on the need for significant policy reform to boost housing supply, remove regulatory barriers to new construction, and deregulate land use and zoning. (Watch Hearing)
  • Chair Whitehouse introduced the Affordable Housing Construction Act, which aims to tackle the housing crisis by expanding the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program, loosening financing requirements, and ensuring affordability for 50 years— an increase from the previous 30-year mark. (Sen. Whitehouse News Release)
  • The bill also pushes for more sustainable, energy-efficient, and accessible housing.

Rate cuts from the Fed are providing relief for both CRE and housing markets, but sustained recovery and resolution of the affordability crisis will require continued policy reform, increased housing supply, and greater collaboration between public and private sectors.

Fed Holds Rates Steady: Implications for Commercial Real Estate

Posted on by Trey Jackson

The Federal Reserve chose to maintain current interest rates at the same level since last July, despite calls from economists and policymakers to implement a cut. (AP News, July 31 | Axios, July 31)

Fed’s Decision

  • Fed chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for data-driven decisions, indicating that future rate adjustments will hinge on economic indicators. (Washington Post, July 31)
  • During the June meeting, Fed officials released their Summary of Economic Projections report, which showed that policymakers penciled in just one rate cut this year, down from the three initially estimated at the start of the year. (RW, June 14)
  • After the decision, Powell said, “a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September.” (Barrons, Aug.1)
  • In June, Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), and John Hickenlooper (D-CO) wrote to Powell, urging the Fed to cut the federal funds interest rates from a two-decade-high of 5.5 percent, citing that high interest rates are increasing the costs of housing and insurance, and exacerbating the housing supply crisis. (Letter)
  • In their letter on housing prices, they emphasized that “The country is already facing a severe housing shortage, and the Fed’s refusal to bring down interest rates is exacerbating this shortage and driving higher inflation rates…Lower mortgage rates would encourage more people to sell their homes, which would in turn increase housing supply, decrease prices, ease the costs of renting, and ultimately increase homeownership.”

CRE Markets

RER board member Owen Thomas (BXP)
  • With interest rates unchanged at a 23-year high, the commercial real estate sector faces significant challenges, particularly in financing and investment, as higher rates increase borrowing costs and reduce demand for development.
  • Higher interest rates and the pandemic-induced shift to remote work have left a lasting impact on office demand, prompting landlords to rethink space utilization.
  • In a recent interview with Bloomberg Television, RER board member Owen Thomas (BXP) discussed the transformation of the office market and the need for innovation and adaptability in the face of changing tenant needs and market conditions. (Watch interview)

The Fed’s next meeting is scheduled for September 17-18, 2024.

Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged

Posted on by Trey Jackson

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously this week to maintain the federal funds rate at the 5.25%-5.5% range where it has been since July of last year. (Federal Reserve Press Release)

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting

  • After the meeting Wednesday, Fed chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference that he saw either one or two rate cuts this year as “plausible” scenarios. (Axios, June 12)
  • “What everyone agrees on is it’s going to be data dependent,” Powell added.
  • The FOMC issued a statement indicating that lowering inflation to 2 percent is their primary objective before reductions can occur.
  • The FOMC currently anticipates making four quarter-point cuts next year, bringing the federal funds rate down by 1.25 percentage points from its current level.

Congressional Pushback

  • Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), and John Hickenlooper (D-CO) wrote to Fed chair Jerome Powell, urging the Fed to cut the federal funds interest rates from its current, two-decade-high of 5.5 percent, citing that other major central banks around the globe have made cuts or are leaning toward lowering interest rates. (Press Release | Letter)
  • Their letter also raises concerns that high interest rates are increasing the costs of housing and insurance, continuing to hurt Americans as rates remain unchanged.
  • On housing prices, the senators wrote: “The country is already facing a severe housing shortage, and the Fed’s refusal to bring down interest rates is exacerbating this shortage and driving higher inflation rates…Lower mortgage rates would encourage more people to sell their homes, which would in turn increase housing supply, decrease prices, ease the costs of renting, and ultimately increase homeownership.”
  • Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), chairman of the Senate’s Budget Committee, and Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA), ranking member of the House Budget Committee, also wrote to Chairman Powell echoing their concerns that high interest rates are exacerbating the housing supply crisis. (Letter)

Next week, at The Roundtable’s all-member Annual Meeting, we will hear economic and market forecasts from a panel of Roundtable members and Kenneth T. Rosen, Chairman, Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley; Chairman, Rosen Consulting Group.

Federal Regulators Signal Significant Changes for Proposed Bank Capital Hikes

Posted on by Trey Jackson
The Federal Reserve in Washington, DC

Proposed regulations that would dramatically hike capital requirements for the nation’s largest banks may undergo significant changes, which could include a 50 percent reduction in the current mandated increase, according to sources cited by The Wall Street Journal on May 19.

Proposed Capital Requirements

  • Top officials from the Fed are working with regulators from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) on “negotiating substantive and technical revisions” to the current proposal, known as the “Basel III Endgame.” (WSJ, May 19)
  • The Real Estate Roundtable strongly opposes the current proposal, which would hike capital requirements by approximately 19 percent for banks with at least $100 billion in assets. (Roundtable Weekly, March 29)
  • Barclay estimates the proposal, if approved without changes, would require eight U.S. global systemically important banks to hold approximately $150 billion more in capital. (WSJ, May 23)

Roundtable Response

Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer testifies before House Oversight Subcommittee on April 30, 2024
  • Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer testified this month before a House subcommittee on the health of CRE markets and offered Roundtable policy recommendations, which included rejection of the Basel III Endgame—along with other pro-cyclical regulatory measures that would restrict credit and capital formation. (Roundtable Weekly, May 3 | DeBoer’s oral statement and written testimony)
  • Additionally, a Jan. 12 Roundtable letter and Jan. 16 industry coalition letter urged federal banking regulators to withdraw the proposed rule, emphasizing its potential negative impact on available credit capacity for commercial real estate transactions, market liquidity, and economic growth. (Roundtable Weekly, Jan. 19)

Policymakers Signal Adjustments

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr
  • The proposal has been met by internal disagreement and concerns among the seven-member Fed Board. (Roundtable Weekly, March 29)
  • Michael Barr, the Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision, said in a May 20 speech that the central bank is exploring “targeted adjustments” to bank liquidity rules, including Basel III.  In March, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified before congressional committees that he expects regulators to “make broad and material changes” to the Basel III proposal. (PoliticoPro, May 20 and Roundtable Weekly, March 8)

The Roundtable’s all-member Annual Meeting on June 20-21 in Washington, DC will address Basel III Endgame and other capital and credit issues impacting CRE.

#  #  #

Fed Report Cites Office Loans as Potential Economic Vulnerability

Posted on by Trey Jackson
The Federal Reserve Board’s semiannual Financial Stability Report, April 2024

Potential losses from certain office real estate loans are an economic vulnerability within the U.S. financial system—yet considered less of a threat than last year, according to the Federal Reserve Board’s semiannual Financial Stability Report. The Fed report noted that if inflation persists and higher interest rates linger during the ongoing, post-pandemic adjustment to remote work, a wave of maturing loans could pose CRE refinancing risks for regional U.S. banks. (Fed report | Bloomberg and Reuters, April 19)

Office Sector Risk

  • The financial stability report focused on four areas of risk, including asset valuations. CRE stress was the third most cited risk, moving down from second in last October’s survey. (KPMG, April 22, 2024 and Roundtable Weekly, Oct. 27, 2023)
  • This month’s Fed report also acknowledged unique strains on CRE, especially in the office sector, “where vulnerabilities have mounted in the post-pandemic period.”
  • The report added that continued economic pressures could reduce investor risk appetite and lead to a “more pronounced correction in commercial property prices.” This, in turn, could “reduce the willingness of financial intermediaries to supply credit to the economy” and further weigh on overall economic activity.
  • Despite ongoing concerns about CRE, the Fed survey also found that the issuance of non-agency securities started to recover in the first three months of 2024.
  • A separate report from DoubleLine shows signs of improvement for the commercial mortgage-backed securities market and other capital markets and notes that borrowers in some sectors, including office, are finding access to credit. (Bloomberg, April 24)

The Roundtable’s all-member June 20-21 Annual Meeting will include a Joint Research Committee and Real Estate Capital Policy Advisory Committee Meeting to drill down into specific CRE capital and credit market trends and issues.

#  #  #

Fed Cautions About Office Sector as Vacancies Climb and Loan Modifications Surge

Posted on by Trey Jackson
La Salle Street, Chicago, Illinois, USA

Recent reports show U.S. office vacancies climbed to nearly 20% during Q1 2024 after loan modifications more than doubled last year compared to 2023. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr cautioned this week that federal regulators are “looking carefully at banks with heavy concentrations in office commercial real estate where there are significant, expected price declines.” (Moody’s Analytics, April 2 | CRED iQ, March 28 | (C-SPAN video, April 3)

Office Sector

  • Preliminary data from Moody’s Analytics reinforces the long-term, negative ramifications of hybrid work models. The Q1 2024 office vacancy rate set a new record at 19.8%, up from 19.6% in the prior quarter, and beating two historic peaks of 19.3% in 1986 and 1991. (Bloomberg, April 2 | Quartz, April 3 | CRE Daily, April 4)
  • “The office stress isn’t quite done yet,” said Thomas LaSalvia, Moody’s head of commercial real estate economics and an author of the report. He added, “This is part of a longer-term evolution where we are seeing obsolete buildings in obsolete neighborhoods.” (Bloomberg, April 2)
  • Brookfield’s Feb. 14 report, “The Misunderstood U.S. Office Market,” emphasizes that high vacancy rates are due to an excess of dated, functionally obsolete office buildings and an undersupply of offices that satisfy tenants’ changing needs.
  • A Roundtable-led coalition of 16 national real estate organizations urged the expansion of a 20 percent tax credit for qualified property conversion expenditures in an Oct. 12, 2022 letter to policymakers. The recommended enhancements included expanding the category of properties eligible for the credit to various types of commercial buildings such as shopping centers and hotels. (Roundtable Weekly, Nov. 11, 2022)

Fed Oversight & CRE Sectors

Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr
  • The Fed’s top market supervisor told the National Community Reinvestment Coalition on April 3 that CRE refinancing deals will “take some time to work through” as the Fed closely monitors office sector conditions. (C-Span | BGov, April 3 | Roundtable Weekly, March 8)
  • Barr said, “This is the kind of thing where it is likely a slow-moving train as the financial sector and commercial real estate market move forward. Over the next two to three years, we are going to see how properties deal with refinancing in a higher interest rate environment. Occupancy rates have lowered because of work-from-home, so for some categories of office CRE they are more exposed to risk.”
Kathleen McCarthy
  • Kathleen McCarthy, global co-head of Blackstone Real Estate and chair-elect of The Real Estate Roundtable, commented to CNBC’s “Closing Bell Overtime” on April 3 that the office sector is different from other CRE investment areas that have performed well. “We do feel like there’s a bottoming happening. There’s no V-shaped recovery … but we do see the cost of capital coming down, we’re seeing more liquidity in markets, and perhaps more importantly for the long term, we’re seeing a sharp decline in new supply,” she said.
  • Barron’s recognized McCarthy this week as one of the 100 Most Influential Woman in Finance. She commented on her upcoming role as Roundtable Chair: “To bring together my interest in policy and have a position to help our whole industry in Washington is really exciting.” (Barron’s, April 4)

Commercial and multifamily market conditions will be discussed during RER’s April 15-16 Spring Meeting in Washington DC (Roundtable-level members only) with guests including White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Jared Bernstein,  House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), and House Financial Services Member French Hill (R-AK). 

#  #  #