Tag: Interest Rates

Fed Chair Powell Testifies on Monetary Policy Outlook, Proposal to Ease Bank Capital Requirements, and Basel III Endgame

Posted on by abigail_grenadier

In a busy week for Fed policy, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered his semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, testifying at a pair of House and Senate hearings on the state of the U.S. economy. Powell also fielded questions from policymakers on a new proposal unveiled this week to ease capital requirements for large banks and the state of Basel III Endgame.

Policy Outlook

  • In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, Chair Powell defended the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady last week. (Roundtable Weekly, June 20)

  • With consumer confidence weakening and inflation risks from tariffs and Middle East tensions rising, the Fed faces competing pressures that could challenge price stability.
  • On Capitol Hill this week, Chair Powell reiterated the Fed’s wait-and-see approach, saying, “For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.” (Federal Reserve, June 24)
  • Two Trump-appointed Fed officials, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and board member Christopher Waller, signaled support for cutting interest rates as soon as July. Their public stance diverges from the majority of Fed officials, seven of whom do not anticipate any rate cuts this year, highlighting an unusual divergence among Fed leadership. (Axios, June 24)

The Fed’s New Proposal

  • On Wednesday, the Fed advanced a proposal to reform the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) in a 5-2 vote, which would reduce capital requirements for relatively low-risk assets, like U.S. Treasury markets. (Reuters, June 25)
  • The SLR was originally designed as a backstop to risk-based capital requirements to ensure that large banks hold a sufficient amount of capital, regardless of the riskiness of those assets. (ABA Journal, June 23)
  • Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), Chair of the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, noted at the Senate hearing with Chair Powell, the backstop has “too often” acted as a binding requirement for U.S. banks, which could harm the effective functioning of U.S. Treasury markets during periods of distress and discourage banks from engaging in low-risk activity.
  • The proposed modifications are intended to make it less expensive for large banks to hold less risky assets, so that more capital is freed up for banks to invest in Treasuries and other low-risk markets.

  • Vice Chair Bowman touted the proposal as an “important first step in balancing the stability of the financial system and Treasury market resilience, while preserving safety and soundness and restoring the SLR as a backstop.” (PoliticoPro, June 25)

  • Chair Powell similarly highlighted the benefits of the reform proposal, noting that “it will not in any way diminish the safety and soundness of the financial system.” (Senate Hearing, June 25)

  • The Fed published a notice of proposed rulemaking on the proposal, opening it for public comment.
  • RER plans to comment on the proposal and its implications for the commercial real estate industry.  The organization’s Real Estate Capital Policy Advisory Committee (RECPAC) is working on a response to the notice of proposed rulemaking and welcomes member input.

Basel III Endgame

The Federal Reserve in Washington, DC
  • Chair Powell was also asked about the Fed’s plans for Basel III Endgame, which stalled after the proposal was met with widespread criticism from policymakers and industry associations last year.

  • Chair Powell told policymakers that the Fed would take a “fresh start” at Basel III in light of the feedback it received. He agreed that the original proposal’s capital requirements were excessive and “very significantly exceeded” the Basel requirements, suggesting that it will be further revised. (American Banker, June 25)

  • RER strongly opposed the original Basel III proposal, pointing out the significant economic costs it would incur without clear benefits to the economy, recommending that it be withdrawn and only reissued after further study.
  • Bowman, the newly appointed Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, is actively involved in reviewing and potentially reforming the Basel III endgame proposal to make it more capital-neutral for U.S. banks.
  • Tighter capital requirements and higher costs would come at a time when the commercial real estate industry is facing a wave of maturing loans, undermining the ability of owners and developers to restructure debt and fill the equity gap. So it is important for the Agencies to recalibrate their proposal accordingly to avert increased borrowing costs and reduced credit capacity for real estate and the overall economy.

Chair Powell’s term at the Fed isn’t up until May 2026—but reports indicate that President Trump is considering announcing his pick to succeed Powell far in advance, potentially a candidate who is more amenable to lowering interest rates on an accelerated timeline.

Interest Rates Remain Unchanged as Chair Powell Keeps Door Open for Future Cuts

Posted on by abigail_grenadier

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its benchmark interest rate at 4.25-4.5 percent, signaling a “wait-and-see” posture amid renewed economic uncertainty and lingering inflation. (FOMC Statement, June 18)

The Fed’s Decision

  • At his Wednesday press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that policymakers are “well positioned to wait” before moving further on rates. He added, “we’re beginning to see some effects” of tariffs on inflation. (CNBC, June 18)
  • When discussing the tariffs, Powell told reporters, “There’s the manufacturer, the exporter, the importer, the retailer, and the consumer, and each one of those is going to be trying not to be the one to pay for the tariff. But together they will all pay for the tariff.” (Yahoo Finance, June 18) 
  • Hours before the decision, President Donald Trump called Powell “stupid” and asked whether he could “appoint myself” to the Fed. “We have a man who just refuses to lower the Fed rate. Just refuses to do it,” said Trump. (Financial Times, June 18; Fox Business, June 18)

Looking Ahead

  • To resume rate cuts that started last year, Fed officials are likely to need to see either labor markets soften or stronger evidence that price increases due to tariffs will be relatively muted. Projections released Wednesday suggest officials were open-minded about whether they would have that evidence after the summer. (WSJ, June 18) 
  • Markets are now pricing in a rate cut as soon as September or October, though officials cautioned that durable inflation or geopolitical risks could delay those cuts. (Seeking Alpha, June 18)
  • The Fed also raised its inflation forecast to around 3 percent this year—well above its 2 percent target—while reducing GDP growth estimates to approximately 1.4 percent, reinforcing its cautious stance. (The Guardian, June 18)

Implications for CRE

  • The decision to keep rates flat means access to—and the cost of—capital will remain a hurdle for investors across the commercial real estate landscape. (BisNow, June 18)
  • The Fed’s decision reinforces findings from RER’s Q2 2025 Sentiment Index , which indicated that the CRE executives expressed a decline in market confidence, as policy uncertainty, rising costs, and investor caution continue to cloud the outlook. (RW, May 23)

What’s Next

  • The Federal Reserve will hold a June 25 board meeting to consider revising the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) standards.
  • These revisions aim to address potential issues and ensure the SLR remains an effective backstop to risk-based capital requirements, potentially easing constraints on bank activities, particularly in the Treasury market.

These potential revisions could have positive implications for real estate financing and the broader market. RER plans to submit comments on the anticipated notice of proposed rulemaking.

Fed Holds Steady on Rates Amid Economic Uncertainty

Posted on by Trey Jackson

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it will maintain its benchmark federal funds rate at the current 4.25-4.50 percent range, citing heightened economic uncertainty linked primarily to recent tariff policies.

Fed’s Decision

  • The decision reflects cautiousness by Fed policymakers amid rising inflation expectations and slower projected economic growth. (AP, March 19)
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted ongoing economic uncertainty, citing the Trump administration’s potential “significant policy changes” on trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. (Opening Statement, March 19)
  • “It’s the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy,” Powell said. “Uncertainty around the changes and their effects on the economic outlook is high.”
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell also emphasized that uncertainty is “unusually elevated,” largely due to the Trump administration’s extensive import tariffs.
  • “Clearly, a good part of [inflation] is coming from tariffs,” Powell stated, adding that while tariffs may temporarily delay inflation reduction, he believes the effect will ultimately prove transitory.

Looking Ahead

  • Powell stated that the Fed will take a patient, data-driven approach to future rate decisions.
  • “We’re not going to be in any hurry to move,” Powell said. “Our current policy stance is well-positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we face.”
  • According to the Fed’s quarterly projections, officials expect GDP to grow 1.7 percent this year, a drop from their 2.1 percent estimate in December.
  • While Fed policymakers still anticipate two quarter-percentage-point rate cuts by year-end, consistent with their December forecast, this expectation primarily reflects concerns over slowing economic growth counterbalancing rising inflation and what Powell described as uncertainty-driven “inertia” given the unclear outlook. (Reuters, March 19)

Pressure From The White House

  • President Trump criticized the Fed’s cautious approach via Truth Social, advocating for rate cuts, stating, “The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S. Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy. Do the right thing.” (ABC News, March 20)
  • Earlier this week, President Trump nominated Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman as vice chair for supervision, the central bank’s top regulatory position. (Bloomberg, March 17)
  • Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) applauded the nomination and called Bowman an important voice in “pushing back on burdensome rules.”

Implications for CRE

  • The decision to maintain current interest rates carries significant implications for commercial real estate. Stable and lower interest rates can provide a more predictable environment for financing and investment decisions.
  • The Fed’s decision reinforces findings from our Q1 2025 Sentiment Index that the CRE industry remains in a transitional period. Released in February, the Index showed signs of market stability—but also lingering uncertainty over tariffs, expiring tax cuts and regulatory reforms that could slow investment and economic growth. (Roundtable Weekly, Feb. 21)
  • Heightened economic uncertainty, particularly from tariff policies, could dampen investment activity and make it challenging to attract foreign capital—both critical elements needed to drive economic growth.
  • Reduced investment activity also risks hindering development projects, including the creation of affordable housing, and could slow ongoing efforts to revitalize communities and cities still recovering from pandemic disruptions. (CBRE, March 19)

RER will continue to track coverage on interest rates and tariffs, and the implications for commercial real estate.

Federal Reserve Opts Out of Cutting Rates

Posted on by Trey Jackson

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds target range steady at 4.25% to 4.50% on Wednesday, as widely anticipated, during its first meeting of 2025. This decision marks a departure from three consecutive rate cuts, which collectively lowered the target range by 100 basis points since September.

Fed’s Decision

  • Chair Fed Jerome Powell indicated that inflationary trends are headed in the right direction. The Fed maintained its assessment that the risks to its dual mandate—promoting a strong labor market and controlling inflation—remain “roughly in balance.” (ConnectCRE, Jan. 29)
  • The country’s inflation rate remains somewhat elevated above the Fed’s target of 2%. In projections released at last month’s meeting, most officials signaled they expected the Fed to lower rates in the year ahead, but were less certain over how many times the central bank would cut.
  •  Most of them penciled in two rate cuts this year, down from four cuts in projections released last September, assuming progress in lowering inflation continued. (CoStar, Jan.29) (WSJ, Jan.29)

Looking Ahead

  • Powell highlighted that future decisions will be guided by “real progress” in bringing inflation down toward the Fed’s target or “some weakness” in the labor market. (ConnectCRE, Jan.29) 
  • President Donald Trump’s plans to cut taxes, impose hefty tariffs on key imports and deport millions of immigrants who lack permanent legal status have generated unusual uncertainty about the course of the economy, inflation and interest rates. (USAToday, Jan. 27)
  • Thomas LaSalvia, Moody’s head of commercial real estate economics, told CoStar News in an email that “all eyes are now shifting away from Fed action and towards economic consequences of new administration policies.” He added that “moving forward, the extremity of those policy actions will be more influential on economic health.” (CoStar, Jan.29)

Pressure From The White House

  • Trump says he will “demand” lower interest rates in a virtual address last week to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
  • When asked about the comments, Powell, sought to stay above the fray. “I’m not going to have any response or comment whatsoever on what the president said. It’s not appropriate for me to do so,” he said. “The public should be confident that we will continue to do our work as we always have, focusing on using our tools to achieve our goals.” (USNews, Jan.27)
  • In the wake of the Fed’s interest rate announcement, President Trump took to Truth Social: “Because Jay Powell and the Fed failed to stop the problem they created with Inflation, I will do it by unleashing American Energy production, slashing Regulation, rebalancing International Trade, and reigniting American Manufacturing, but I will do much more than stopping Inflation, I will make our Country financially, and otherwise, powerful again!” (TheHill, Jan.29)

What to Watch: Tariffs

  • White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters today President Trump plans to move forward with a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico starting tomorrow, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports. (USA Today, Jan. 31)
  • Howard Lutnick, Trump’s Commerce Secretary Nominee, told the Senate during his confirmation hearing this week, that he advised Trump to impose country-by-country tariffs to restore trade “reciprocity” and vowed to tighten restrictions on China’s access to advanced AI technology. (Reuters, Jan. 29)
  • These tariffs could have significant repercussions for the U.S. economy, including housing affordability. Any tariffs on imported materials like steel, aluminum and lumber are likely to drive up costs for developers and impact efforts to address the housing shortage. (Roundtable Weekly, Jan. 24 | Nov. 27)

The Roundtable will continue to track coverage on interest rates and tariffs, and the implications for commercial real estate.

Fed Cuts Rates Again: Slower Path Ahead Amid Inflation Concerns

Posted on by Trey Jackson

The Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point Wednesday, bringing it to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. While the cut provides some relief to borrowers, the central bank signaled a more cautious pace for future rate reductions as inflationary pressures persist. (Axios, Dec. 18)

Why It Matters

  • The Fed’s decision reflects its effort to balance slowing inflation with a resilient economy.
  • Powell cited recent data, and not just potential policy changes, justified an adjustment to the inflation forecast. Additionally, the labor market has proven more resilient than officials anticipated when they began rate cuts in September. (WSJ, Dec. 18)
  • “We are at or near a point at which it will be appropriate to slow the pace of further adjustments,” Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters at a press conference on Wednesday, referring to the decision to cut rates. (Press Conference, Dec. 18)
  • The Fed’s latest quarterly projections suggest a slower path to lower rates, with officials anticipating only two rate cuts in 2025, down from four or five predicted in September. (AP News, Dec. 18)
  • Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, dissented from the decision, advocating for steady rates.

Looking Ahead

  • The incoming Trump administration is expected to pursue policies such as deregulation, tax cuts, and a growth-focused agenda.
  • While policies like deregulation and tax cuts could stimulate growth, tariffs and deportations threaten to exacerbate inflationary pressures.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that some officials have started factoring in “highly conditional estimates” of the potential economic impacts of Trump administration policies into their forecasts.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) emphasized that further cuts would depend on incoming data, stating it will assess “the extent and timing” of future adjustments. (Summary of Economic Projections, Dec. 18)
  • The Fed now projects inflation to reach 2.5% in 2025, higher than its September forecast of 2.1%, reflecting expectations of slower progress in curbing price increases. (CBS, Dec. 18)
  • For CRE, adaptability remains key as the macroeconomic environment evolves.

The Fed’s next meeting will be January 28-29, 2025, a week after inauguration, and RER’s all-member State of the Industry (SOI) Meeting on January 22-23. 

View from the CEO: Priorities for the CRE Industry in 2025

Posted on by Trey Jackson

With control over the White House and both chambers of Congress decided, attention has turned to how President-elect Donald Trump’s second term will affect the commercial real estate industry.

Looking Ahead

  • As Roundtable President & CEO Jeff DeBoer noted to BisNow last week, the new administration represents a chance to strengthen policymakers’ understanding of the critical role CRE plays in the economy. (BisNow, Nov. 12)
  • “Anytime that there’s a turning of the page, there’s an opportunity to emphasize new issues, or to bring priority to older issues that maybe have been pushed out by previous leaders,” DeBoer told BisNow. DeBoer also highlighted key policy priorities for commercial real estate to move forward in the coming administration, including housing, tax, capital markets, and energy.

Housing Policy

  • Interagency task force: The Roundtable is calling for a federal task force focused on expanding the housing supply, particularly affordable housing. This task force would coordinate efforts across agencies to streamline building processes and reduce regulatory barriers, incentivizing new development across the U.S.
  • Property conversions: The administration should support federal incentives for (such as low interest loans) converting obsolete office buildings into residential housing. Modeled after tax credits for historic preservation, bipartisan legislation like the Revitalizing Downtowns and Main Streets Act could help relieve the national housing shortage. (Roundtable Weekly, July 12)
  • Tariff concerns: Proposed tariffs on materials like lumber, steel, concrete, glass and appliances could impact housing supply: “By putting tariffs on housing materials, you will be indirectly increasing costs for buyers and renters and making it more difficult to solve this housing crisis,” said DeBoer.

Tax Policy

  • With key provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) expiring soon, tax legislation will likely be central to President-elect Trump’s first 100 days.
  • Capital gains: Long-standing elements of the tax code, including the reduced rate for capital gains, the ability to reinvest through like-kind exchanges, and step-up in basis of assets at death, are critical for real estate businesses and encourage productive investment and economic growth. RER will continue to advocate that these provisions be maintained.
  • Section 199A: The qualified business income deduction for pass-through businesses, known as Section 199A, ensures that small businesses can compete on a level playing field with public corporations. RER supports extending the deduction, which is currently set to expire.
  • Foreign investment: Restrictions on foreign investment discourage capital formation and could hinder growth in real estate at a time when increasing the supply and availability of capital is critical to the industry’s recovery. Policymakers should avoid imposing additional restrictions or tax burdens on foreign investors, and consider repealing or reforming the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA).

Capital Markets

  • Strengthening capital flows in real estate is a top priority, as lending and credit availability have remained relatively weak since the pandemic and are only recently starting to see improvement.
  • Interest rates: Policymakers should carefully consider the inflationary effects of fiscal policies to maintain a favorable interest rate environment. Avoiding increased capital requirements, such as Basel III Endgame proposal, is also necessary to prevent hindering growth.

Energy Policy

  • With the rise of data centers, AI and other energy-intensive sectors, addressing energy capacity and permitting is a critical bipartisan need and “very important” to RER’s agenda, as DeBoer noted.

RER is committed to working proactively and productively with President-elect Trump and the 119th Congress to support the needs of the economy and commercial real estate industry.

The Federal Reserve Cuts Interests Rates

Posted on by Trey Jackson

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by half a percentage point, marking the
first rate cut in four years. The target rate now stands at 4.75-5%, with important implications for the commercial real estate industry and broader economy. (Federal Reserve Press Release | Washington Post, Sept. 18)

Fed’s Decision           

  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that while inflation is easing, falling below 3% from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022, the labor market needs support to prevent further weakening.
  • At a news conference after the meeting, Chair Powell said, “This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market, and will continue to enable further progress on inflation.” (WSJ, Sept. 18)
  • Fed officials project the target rate will decrease to 3.4% by the end of 2025, indicating four quarter-point cuts over the next year.    

Impacts on CRE    

  • The rate cut comes at a time when the real estate capital markets landscape remains challenging. However, this move could improve credit capacity and capital availability and help stabilize asset values.
  • Prior to the rate cut, The Roundtable’s Q3 2024 Sentiment Index revealed that a majority of respondents expected improvements in the availability of both equity capital (71%) and debt capital (60%) within the next year.
  • Meanwhile, 88% of respondents expressed optimism that asset values will either increase (57%) or remain stable (31%) over the same period. Stay tuned for The Roundtable’s Q4 Sentiment Index, which will provide further insights into how the rate adjustment is impacting real estate markets.

Looking Ahead

  • Chair Powell added that decisions regarding further rate adjustments will be data-driven and made on a meeting-to-meeting basis.
  • Roundtable President & CEO Jeffrey DeBoer commented on the impact for commercial real estate: “The Fed’s rate cuts will bring much-needed relief to the industry. Lower borrowing costs could help address the wave of maturing commercial real estate loans, reignite stalled projects and encourage new investments, helping stabilize property values as we move into a more favorable lending environment.”
  • A mix of lower rates and corporate decisions like Amazon’s office return could help stabilize the office sector still grappling with the post-pandemic shift toward remote work. (Business Insider, Sept. 18)
  • This environment also presents multifamily investors with opportunities to refinance properties, reduce payments, improve cash flow, and capitalize on lower borrowing costs, while exploring new asset classes as valuations stabilize. (JPMorgan, Sept. 19)

The Fed has two more opportunities to adjust interest rates in 2024, with meetings scheduled for November 6-7 and December 17-18.

Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged

Posted on by Trey Jackson

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously this week to maintain the federal funds rate at the 5.25%-5.5% range where it has been since July of last year. (Federal Reserve Press Release)

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting

  • After the meeting Wednesday, Fed chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference that he saw either one or two rate cuts this year as “plausible” scenarios. (Axios, June 12)
  • “What everyone agrees on is it’s going to be data dependent,” Powell added.
  • The FOMC issued a statement indicating that lowering inflation to 2 percent is their primary objective before reductions can occur.
  • The FOMC currently anticipates making four quarter-point cuts next year, bringing the federal funds rate down by 1.25 percentage points from its current level.

Congressional Pushback

  • Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), and John Hickenlooper (D-CO) wrote to Fed chair Jerome Powell, urging the Fed to cut the federal funds interest rates from its current, two-decade-high of 5.5 percent, citing that other major central banks around the globe have made cuts or are leaning toward lowering interest rates. (Press Release | Letter)
  • Their letter also raises concerns that high interest rates are increasing the costs of housing and insurance, continuing to hurt Americans as rates remain unchanged.
  • On housing prices, the senators wrote: “The country is already facing a severe housing shortage, and the Fed’s refusal to bring down interest rates is exacerbating this shortage and driving higher inflation rates…Lower mortgage rates would encourage more people to sell their homes, which would in turn increase housing supply, decrease prices, ease the costs of renting, and ultimately increase homeownership.”
  • Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), chairman of the Senate’s Budget Committee, and Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA), ranking member of the House Budget Committee, also wrote to Chairman Powell echoing their concerns that high interest rates are exacerbating the housing supply crisis. (Letter)

Next week, at The Roundtable’s all-member Annual Meeting, we will hear economic and market forecasts from a panel of Roundtable members and Kenneth T. Rosen, Chairman, Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley; Chairman, Rosen Consulting Group.

While Uncertainty Remains, Commercial Real Estate Executives Are Optimistic About Future Market Conditions

Posted on by Trey Jackson

The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q1 Economic Sentiment Index reports that industry executives, while optimistic about the future, remain uncertain about current market conditions, citing inflation, rising interest rates, and supply chain disruptions as concerns. However, executives also express that perceptions and outlooks differ across asset classes, as some remain strong and others show concerns.

  • Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Fundamentally, our Q1 index illustrates that the trends accelerated by the pandemic have led to mixed performances across asset classes. Multifamily and industrial assets have maintained steady growth due to increased housing demand and supply chain needs, while hospitality and student housing are regaining momentum. But in the office sector, remote work policies, concerns over crime and transportation are driving record-high vacancy rates throughout the country, hurting city budgets and small businesses.”
  • “Looking forward, industry leaders are anticipating the landscape to improve throughout the year, despite recent declines in asset values and the decreased availability of debt and equity capital compared to a year ago. Policymakers should emphasize the need to return to the workplace while considering other innovative solutions such as legislation to convert underutilized offices to housing to entrench this optimism, create jobs, spur economic activity, and increase housing supply and tax revenue,” DeBoer added.
  • The Roundtable’s Economic Sentiment Index—a measure of senior executives’ confidence and expectations about the commercial real estate market environment—is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Economic Sentiment Indices.­­­­ Any score over 50 is viewed as positive. ­­­­

Top Line Findings

  • The Q1 2023 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 44, an increase of five points from the previous quarter. The Current Index registered at 31, a two-point increase from Q4 2022, and the Future Index posted a score of 58 points, an increase of ten points from the previous quarter.
  • Several survey respondents acknowledged the dangers of generalizing trends across the commercial real estate industry as the disparities between asset classes grow; multifamily and industrial continue to attract interest, hospitality and student housing are beginning to bounce back, meanwhile Class B office is struggling.
  • Nearly all survey participants (93%) expressed that asset values have fallen year-over-year. That said, conversations with industry leaders suggest that the market is still in a period of price discovery. With low transaction volume and a limited supply of debt capital, there is lingering uncertainty as to where asset prices will ultimately land.
  • Survey participants overwhelmingly indicated that the availability of debt and equity capital is worse today compared to one year ago (93% and 82% respectfully). However, over half of participants expect the capital markets landscape to improve over the next 12 months.

Data for the Q1 survey was gathered in January by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf.  See the full Q1 report. 

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News Release: While Uncertainty Remains, Commercial Real Estate Executives Are Optimistic About Future Market Conditions

Posted on by Trey Jackson

(WASHINGTON, D.C.) — The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q1 Economic Sentiment Index reports that industry executives, while optimistic about the future, remain uncertain about current market conditions, citing inflation, rising interest rates, and supply chain disruptions as concerns. However, executives also express that perceptions and outlooks differ across asset classes, as some remain strong and others show concerns.

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Fundamentally, our Q1 index illustrates that the trends accelerated by the pandemic have led to mixed performances across asset classes. Multifamily and industrial assets have maintained steady growth due to increased housing demand and supply chain needs, while hospitality and student housing are regaining momentum. But in the office sector, remote work policies, concerns over crime and transportation are driving record-high vacancy rates throughout the country, hurting city budgets and small businesses.”

“Looking forward, industry leaders are anticipating the landscape to improve throughout the year, despite recent declines in asset values and the decreased availability of debt and equity capital compared to a year ago. Policymakers should emphasize the need to return to the workplace while considering other innovative solutions such as legislation to convert underutilized offices to housing to entrench this optimism, create jobs, spur economic activity, and increase housing supply and tax revenue,” DeBoer added.

The Roundtable’s Economic Sentiment Index—a measure of senior executives’ confidence and expectations about the commercial real estate market environment—is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Economic Sentiment Indices.­­­­ Any score over 50 is viewed as positive. ­­­­

The Q1 Sentiment Index topline findings include:

  • The Q1 2023 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 44, an increase of five points from the previous quarter. The Current Index registered at 31, a two-point increase from Q4 2022, and the Future Index posted a score of 58 points, an increase of ten points from the previous quarter.
  • Several survey respondents acknowledged the dangers of generalizing trends across the commercial real estate industry as the disparities between asset classes grow; multifamily and industrial continue to attract interest, hospitality and student housing are beginning to bounce back, meanwhile Class B office is struggling.
  • Nearly all survey participants (93%) expressed that asset values have fallen year-over-year. That said, conversations with industry leaders suggest that the market is still in a period of price discovery. With low transaction volume and a limited supply of debt capital, there is lingering uncertainty as to where asset prices will ultimately land.
  • Survey participants overwhelmingly indicated that the availability of debt and equity capital is worse today compared to one year ago (93% and 82% respectfully). However, over half of participants expect the capital markets to improve over the next 12 months.

Data for the Q1 survey was gathered in January by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf.  See the full Q1 report.

The Real Estate Roundtable brings together leaders of the nation’s top publicly-held and privately-owned real estate ownership, development, lending and management firms with the leaders of major national real estate trade associations to jointly address key national policy issues relating to real estate and the overall economy

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