Fed Signals Another Rate Hike as Regulators Advance Capital Reforms

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15-16 meeting, released Oct. 7, indicated that most policymakers believe another interest rate increase would likely be appropriate by year-end. The minutes follow recent remarks by Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, who said she expects regulators to finalize the revised Basel III capital framework by year-end, while pointing to early results from recent leverage ratio reforms. (Federal Reserve, Sept. 18 | Federal Reserve, Oct. 1 | American Banker, Oct. 1 | Federal Reserve, Oct. 7)

Fed Outlook

  • Most Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants indicated that another rate increase would likely be appropriate before year-end, following the Fed’s unanimous decision in September to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4%. Officials cited persistent inflation, resilient economic activity, and diminished labor market risks in support of additional tightening. (Federal Reserve, Oct. 7 | Wall Street Journal, Oct. 7 | Associated Press, Oct. 7)
  • Credit and Housing. Several participants pointed to easier bank lending standards, while a few noted that elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh on housing activity. Treasury yields rose roughly 35 basis points across the 2- to 10-year range between meetings, while residential mortgage rates increased slightly more than the 10-year Treasury yield. (Federal Reserve, Oct. 7)
  • Regulatory Reform. Bowman said the Fed’s recalibration of the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR) has expanded large banks’ balance sheet capacity and improved Treasury market intermediation. Dealers’ Treasury positions increased from approximately $600 billion before the changes to more than $700 billion by the end of April, demonstrating how adjustments to capital requirements can support market liquidity. (Federal Reserve, Oct. 1 | Bloomberg Law, Oct. 1)
  • Capital Reforms. Regulators are expected to finalize revised risk-based capital requirements under Basel III and accompanying changes to the global systemically important bank (G-SIB) surcharge before year-end. The proposals, released in March, would reduce aggregate capital requirements for the largest U.S. banks by an estimated 2.4% and revise the treatment of mortgages and mortgage servicing assets to better align capital requirements with risk. (Roundtable Weekly, March 20 | Bloomberg, March 19 | Federal Reserve, Sept. 18)

Why It Matters

  • Another potential rate increase, combined with elevated Treasury yields, could extend borrowing and refinancing pressures for commercial real estate (CRE) owners. Nearly $983 billion in CRE mortgages are estimated to mature in 2027, increasing the importance of accessible financing as borrowers seek to refinance existing debt. (Federal Reserve, Oct. 7 | RER Policy Priorities, Capital & Credit)
  • At the same time, appropriately calibrated capital requirements could strengthen banks’ capacity and incentives to provide CRE financing. While the eSLR changes primarily address Treasury market intermediation, the revised Basel III framework could ease certain regulatory constraints on lending and support market liquidity as borrowers navigate elevated financing costs. (Roundtable Weekly, March 20 | Federal Reserve, Sept. 18 | Federal Reserve, Oct. 1)

Roundtable Advocacy

  • The Real Estate Roundtable has consistently advocated for appropriately calibrated, risk-based bank capital requirements that maintain financial stability without unnecessarily limiting CRE lending. RER opposed the original 2023 Basel III proposal, warning that higher capital requirements could reduce credit availability, increase financing costs, and constrain investment in commercial and multifamily real estate. (Roundtable Weekly, March 20)
  • In a June 18 coalition letter, RER and other national real estate organizations urged regulators to preserve the revised proposal’s improvements while making targeted changes to avoid unnecessarily constraining CRE financing. Recommendations included more risk-sensitive treatment of CRE and multifamily loans, mortgage servicing, and securitizations, along with changes to prevent disproportionate capital charges on common financing arrangements such as mezzanine loans and preferred equity. (Coalition Letter, June 18)

RER will continue engaging with federal regulators and industry partners as the Basel III reforms move toward finalization, advocating for capital requirements that preserve credit availability, support housing and commercial real estate investment, and maintain a stable and liquid CRE finance market.

New Senate Legislation Takes Aim at Wall Street but Threatens to Disrupt U.S. Real Estate

Legislation introduced in the House and Senate on Sept. 24 aims to fundamentally reform the private equity industry, but the expansive legislation could cause major disruption to U.S. real estate values and markets.

The newly revised Stop Wall Street Looting Act, introduced by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and seven other Democratic senators, as well as a coalition of progressive House members, would raise the tax rate on REIT investors, end capital gains treatment for carried interest, and greatly restrict the deductibility of interest on real estate borrowing. (Senate Banking Committee, Sept. 24 | Bill Text)

State of Play

  • Sponsors seek to rein in investment by private funds. The bill authors seek to build on their successful effort this summer to expand the government’s role in regulating private investment in single-family rental housing. The legislation would impose restrictions on the activities of private funds, including their acquisitions, distributions, and business operations such as outsourcing jobs or closing facilities. (Section-by-Section Summary, Sept. 24)
  • Legislation’s reach extends beyond Wall Street. The legislation would have far-reaching consequences for REITs, REIT investors, and real estate generally. While the sponsors highlight a specific case involving REIT ownership of health care-related property, the bill would raise the tax rate on all REIT investors by repealing the 20% deduction for qualified REIT dividends (Section 199A). (Section-by-Section Summary, Sept. 24)
  • Carried interest. The bill also incorporates the Carried Interest Fairness Act (S. 445), introduced by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI). The Carried Interest Fairness Act would recharacterize all carried interest income as ordinary income rather than capital gains. (Section-by-Section Summary, Sept. 24)
  • Interest deductibility. The bill would restrict business interest deductions under Section 163(j) for certain businesses controlled by private investment funds if the business has a rate of leverage (debt-to-equity ratio) greater than 50%. The proposal would calculate leverage using the adjusted basis of a business’s assets rather than market value, potentially overstating the leverage on appreciated real estate. Qualifying businesses that meet the bill’s conditions would also lose access to the existing real estate exception from the Section 163(j) limitation. (Section-by-Section Summary, Sept. 24)
  • Health care real estate and fund fees. Other provisions would prohibit federal health care payments to certain entities that sell or pledge assets to REITs and modify rules governing taxable REIT subsidiaries that operate health care properties. Additionally, it would impose a 100% tax on certain fees, often called “monitoring” or “transaction” fees, paid by fund-controlled companies to private fund managers. (Section-by-Section Summary, Sept. 24)
  • Outlook for the bill. While action on the legislation is unlikely in the near term, the sponsors will likely seek to include some or all of the provisions in tax legislation next year if control of either chamber changes.

Why It Matters

  • Taken together, the proposed changes could affect a broad range of real estate businesses and investors beyond private equity funds. Eliminating the Section 199A deduction for qualified REIT dividends and changing the tax treatment of carried interest would increase tax burdens and discourage investment in real estate partnerships, REITs, and development projects. (RER Carried Interest Fact Sheet, Jan. 2026)
  • Restrictions on interest deductions could create additional financing challenges for real estate owners by increasing after-tax borrowing costs, reducing property values, and complicating the refinancing of maturing debt. Because debt is a fundamental source of financing for commercial real estate investment and development, the changes could also constrain capital availability and discourage new investment. (RER Policy Priorities, Tax)

Roundtable Advocacy

  • The Real Estate Roundtable (RER) has consistently opposed proposals to tax all carried interest as ordinary income, emphasizing that carried interest reflects the entrepreneurial risk and “sweat equity” contributed by general partners to real estate ventures. RER has warned that such changes could affect 2.2 million real estate partnerships and 9.7 million partners nationwide. (RER Carried Interest Fact Sheet, Jan. 2026)
  • Beyond carried interest, RER has advocated for preserving the Section 199A deduction for pass-through businesses and qualified REIT dividends, as well as the real estate exception from Section 163(j). In an October 2025 letter to Treasury and the IRS, RER urged regulators to allow real estate businesses to revisit prior Section 163(j) elections to access bonus depreciation benefits restored under the 2025 tax law. (RER Letter, Oct. 17, 2025)

RER will continue working with policymakers to oppose tax provisions that could undermine real estate investment, financing, and development, while advocating for policies that support capital formation and the stability of U.S. real estate markets.

Data Centers, Permitting Reform Await Action Post-Midterms

With affordability of energy prices top of mind for voters heading into the midterms, the Senate failed this week to advance legislation addressing data center growth and broader permitting reform. Both measures could see action during the post-election lame-duck session or the next session of Congress that starts in January, while House Democrats have outlined energy priorities they could pursue if they win the majority in November.

Regulations Versus Voluntary Agreements 

  • The Ratepayer Protection Act (H.R. 9340) stalled in the Senate on Sept. 30, even though it passed the House earlier this month by a wide bipartisan margin (417-3). (Roll Call, Sept. 30) The legislation would pressure state utility regulators to consider, but not compel adoption of, federal standards ensuring 100-MW data centers pay the full cost of grid upgrades needed to serve them. (House Energy Committee Press Release, Sept. 16)
  • Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) called the bill a “common sense” measure to codify portions of President Trump’s voluntary “Ratepayer Protection Pledge” with utilities and hyperscalers operating global data center networks. (Roll Call, Sept. 30)
  • Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY), meanwhile, criticized the bill as “toothless,” lacking “real guardrails on AI and data centers,” and called for legislation “to make it mandatory for data centers to cover their own costs.” (The Hill, Sept. 29)
  • Also this week, the White House issued an executive order and fact sheet (Sept. 29) “Inaugurating the Era of Super Intelligence.” Amid calls for regulations, frontier companies agreed to a voluntary pact to maintain internal controls, report safety and security incidents, and conduct third-party audits as they develop advanced AI models and agentic systems at the cutting edge of technology. (New York Times, Sept. 29)    

Permitting Reform

  • The package would streamline permitting for energy and infrastructure projects, including transmission, while requiring data centers to pay their associated transmission costs. The Senate is not expected to vote until after the midterm elections, leaving the measure for possible lame-duck action. (Bill Summary, Sept. 30 | Senate EPW Committee, Sept. 30)
  • RER supports permitting reform to improve energy affordability and meet growing electricity demand. Its letter backing the bipartisan SPEED Act (H.R. 4776) urged certainty for approved projects and warned that redundant federal reviews delay affordable, reliable power to homes and commercial buildings. (Letter, Dec. 8, 2025 | Roundtable Weekly, Dec. 12, 2025)

House Democrats’ Energy Blueprint

  • On Sept. 15, House Democrats led by Rep. Kathy Castor (D-FL) released the Thriving Economy Project (TEP), a menu of more than 800 recommendations that could shape the energy agenda if Democrats win the House in November. Democratic leadership has not formally endorsed the proposals. (TEP Report, Sept. 15 | Politico via SEEC, Sept. 16)
  • Building-related recommendations include energy benchmarking for commercial and residential buildings and disclosure of energy costs in sales and leases, as well as high-performance building standards tied to federal housing, infrastructure, disaster recovery, and mortgage programs. (TEP Report, Sept. 15)
  • Data center proposals include energy and water disclosure requirements, siting and efficiency standards, responsibility for associated grid infrastructure costs, and new DOE efficiency metrics, such as an ENERGY STAR-equivalent program for AI tools. (TEP Report, Sept. 15)

RER will continue tracking these developments and advocating for policies that support affordable and reliable electricity and timely energy infrastructure investment.

FinCEN Permanently Ends Beneficial Ownership Reporting for U.S. Companies

The Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) issued a final rule on Aug. 11 permanently removing beneficial ownership information (BOI) reporting requirements for U.S. companies and U.S. persons under the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA). The rule finalizes the narrower framework adopted in March 2025 and provides long-term relief for millions of U.S. businesses.

State of Play

  • All entities created in the United States are exempt from BOI reporting, including the limited liability companies and partnerships commonly used to own and operate commercial real estate. The rule took effect Aug. 14, 2026. (Final Rule | Treasury Press Release, Aug. 11)
  • FinCEN will delete information previously reported by U.S. persons who are now exempt from the requirements. (FinCEN, Aug. 11)
  • Foreign entities that qualify as reporting companies remain subject to the CTA, but they are required to report BOI only for foreign individuals. (FinCEN, Aug. 11)

Why It Matters for CRE

  • Treasury originally estimated the CTA would reach roughly 32 million existing entities, plus millions of newly formed entities each year. Under the narrowed framework, only about 11,600 foreign firms are expected to report annually. (Roundtable Weekly, March 28, 2025)
  • The regime posed particular challenges for real estate, where individual assets are frequently held in separate LLCs or partnerships. The final rule eliminates the need to identify individuals with indirect ownership interests or substantial control across these structures and file updates following changes in ownership or management. (Roundtable Weekly, June 7, 2024)

RER Advocacy

  • Most recently, RER and a coalition urged Treasury to delay the CTA’s reporting requirements weeks before the department announced it would suspend enforcement against domestic companies. (Coalition Letter, Jan. 4, 2025)

RER’s Real Estate Capital Policy Advisory Committee (RECPAC) will continue to track developments related to beneficial ownership reporting requirements.

Senate Passes Seven-Year TRIA Reauthorization

The Senate passed the bipartisan Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2026 (S. 4395) by unanimous consent, advancing a seven-year extension of the federal terrorism risk insurance program through Dec. 31, 2034.

State of Play

  • Sponsored by Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA), with Sens. Tina Smith (D-MN), Thom Tillis (R-NC), and Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), S. 4395 provides a clean seven-year reauthorization through 2034, maintaining the program’s existing structure.
  • Both chambers have now approved seven-year extensions, but the Senate bill differs from the House-passed measure, which would increase the minimum loss threshold for an event to qualify as an act of terrorism under the program from $5 million to $10 million beginning in 2029 and establish a 90-day timeframe for Treasury certification determinations. (Roundtable Weekly, July 17) 

What’s Next

  • Because the House and Senate passed different versions of the reauthorization, identical legislation must still clear both chambers before it can be sent to the president for his signature.
  • Options include the House adopting the Senate bill, a conference to resolve differences, or attaching final language to a must-pass package by year’s end.

RER Advocacy

  • RER and coalition partners urged lawmakers to advance S. 4395, warning that policyholders are already negotiating coverage extending beyond TRIA’s 2027 expiration and emphasizing the importance of maintaining certainty for insurers and policyholders. (Roundtable Weekly, Sept. 18)
  • RER and its industry partners will continue urging Congress to send a long-term TRIA reauthorization to the president’s desk before the end of the year, providing certainty ahead of the program’s 2027 expiration.