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Senate to Debate Changes to Reconciliation Bill

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With Congress back in session next week, the Senate is gearing up to take on the House’s reconciliation package and potentially make significant changes to the bill. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is expected to release further information on its FY2026 budget.

Senate to Take Up One Big Beautiful Bill Act

  • “This bill is far from over, but we are pleased the House bill maintains current law on business property and income tax deductibility, carried interest, and Section 1031 exchanges, while also improving Opportunity Zones, the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, and taxation of pass-through entities,” said Jeffrey DeBoer, President and CEO of The Real Estate Roundtable (RER). “As the Senate takes up this bill we plan to work to preserve these provisions.  We are also highly focused on eliminating the ‘retaliatory tax’ on foreign investment, as well as improving other aspects of the bill.”
  • The Senate is back in session Monday and eager to put its mark on the massive reconciliation package. The next four weeks will involve crucial tax negotiations on a variety of key provisions, including Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) energy tax incentives, state and local tax (SALT) deductions, Medicaid, and more. There are also procedural hurdles that the Senate bill must overcome.
  • Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) implored his Senate colleagues to avoid making major changes to the bill, saying, “If it wasn’t obvious for them, I wanted them to know the equilibrium that we reached is so delicate… My hope and my encouragement to them is – fine tune this product as little as possible.” (Punchbowl News, May 26)
  • Difficult compromises based on countless hours of negotiations were made to get the House bill across the finish line. If the Senate makes drastic changes, it could force negotiators back to the drawing board on certain issues and make it more difficult to meet the GOP’s goal of getting the reconciliation bill to President Trump’s desk by July 4. (Punchbowl News, May 29)

Expected Changes to the Reconciliation Bill

  • Early reports indicate that Senate leadership will seek only minor modifications to the House’s bill, rather than sweeping changes. But some senators are pushing for much more. (Punchbowl News, May 23)
  • Procedural changes: The Senate’s Byrd Rule requires that only budget-related items are included in the reconciliation process. As a result, some minor provisions could be stripped out. (Axios, May 28)
  • Tax additions: The Senate is also expected to switch the bill from a “current law” to a “current policy” baseline, allowing the Senate to permanently extend key tax cuts expiring this year. This would give Senate tax writers more space to include other tax provisions, including the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s (TCJA) 100 percent bonus depreciation.
  • Energy tax incentives: Multiple GOP senators have advocated for protecting the IRA energy tax incentives, including Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Thom Tillis (R-NC), who sits on the Senate Finance Committee and wants to moderate the House’s rollback of the tax credits. (Politico, May 23)
  • These modifications could include extending some tax credits that the House bill proposed eliminating, or expanding the timeline for their phase-out to ensure that the change does not strand energy projects already in progress.

Other Potential Changes

  • Medicaid cuts: Sens. Josh Hawley (R-MO), Susan Collins (R-ME), and others have taken issue with the House bill’s Medicaid cost-cutting measures, including expanded work requirements and other changes. (The Hill, May 28)
  • Deficit debate: A group of deficit hawks, including Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), are pushing for far deeper spending cuts than the House bill proposes, and have criticized it for not sufficiently reducing the deficit. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) also called the spending cuts in the House bill “wimpy and anemic.” (Axios, May 25)
  • Pressure from President Trump was crucial to getting deficit hawks in the House to back down from their opposition to the lower chamber’s bill. It remains to be seen whether conservatives concerned about the deficit in the Senate will put up more of a fight.
  • Debt limit: The Senate could increase the debt limit hike in the bill from $4 trillion to $5 trillion, ensuring that the next debt limit fight doesn’t happen until after the 2026 midterms. However, this proposal has also faced opposition from Sen. Rand Paul. (Politico, May 25)
  • Overall, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has his work cut out for him in order to hammer out the differences in opinion within his caucus. He can only afford to lose three GOP senators. It will take immense effort and deft political maneuvering to meet their aggressive July 4 goal.

Looking Ahead

  • Trump’s FY2026 budget request is expected to be released next week, kicking off a renewed budget battle after the administration’s skinny budget proposed in early May received pushback from both sides of the aisle. (Reuters, May 2)

RER will continue to engage with policymakers to ensure that the commercial real estate industry has a seat at the table in the critical Senate negotiations to come.

Industry Leaders Discuss Economic Outlook, Policy Priorities, and Geopolitical Challenges at Annual Meeting

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The Real Estate Roundtable’s (RER) 2025 Annual Meeting this week included discussions with public officials and industry leaders on a range of issues affecting commercial real estate, including market conditions, tax policy, the House’s recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, tariffs and trade, affordable housing solutions, energy policy, and evolving security threats.

Roundtable Leadership

  • RER Chair Kathleen McCarthy (Global Co-Head of Blackstone Real Estate, Blackstone) opened the meeting by thanking members for their consistent engagement and highlighting the significance of RER’s collaborative efforts in navigating a rapidly evolving policy landscape. (May 2025 Policy Priorities and Executive Summary)
  • During the meeting, RER members approved the nominees for its FY26 board of directors and policy advisory committee officers, which were announced by RER Nominating Committee Chair Geordy Johnson (CEO, The Johnson Group).
  • Addressing the membership, RER President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer emphasized RER’s ongoing commitment to enhancing member involvement through RER’s policy advisory committees and underscored the value of strategic partnerships with other national real estate organizations for proactive policy advocacy. (Meeting Agenda)

Meeting Speakers

  • The Honorable Kevin Hassett (Director, National Economic Council) presented the administration’s economic agenda, focusing on housing initiatives, factory expensing, and the outlook for growth.
  • (L-R): Hessam Nadji (President and CEO, Marcus & Millichap), Martha Gimble (Executive Director, The Budget Lab at Yale University), and Jonathan Pollack (President, Starwood Capital Group) provided macroeconomic insights, reviewed current and future CRE market trends, and spoke about challenges amidst tariff-induced uncertainty. (Hessam Nadji Presentation | Martha Gimble Presentation)
  • Anna Palmer (Founder & CEO of Punchbowl News) offered her perspective on legislative developments and negotiations, and the rise of influential figures within both political parties.

Policy Advisory Committee Meetings

  • Each of RER’s policy advisory committees met this week in conjunction with the Annual Meeting for in-depth policy discussions. The committees hosted several congressional staff and regulatory officials.

Sustainability Policy Advisory Committee (SPAC) Meeting

  • SPAC Chair Anthony E. Malkin (Chairman and CEO, Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.), Co-Vice Chairs Ben Myers (Vice President, Sustainability, BXP) and Katie Rothenberg (Vice President, ESG, AvalonBay Communities, Inc.) led discussions on EPA’s ENERGY STAR program, grid reliability, clean energy procurement, and nuclear energy deployment. (Agenda & Speakers)

Tax Policy Advisory Committee (TPAC)

  • TPAC Chair Josh Parker (Chairman & CEO, Ancora Group Capital), Vice Chair David Friedline (Partner, Deloitte Tax LLP), and the Committee discussed the broad range of tax proposals affecting real estate that are working their way through Congress in the budget reconciliation bill. Panelists included senior staff from the offices of the House Speaker, Ways and Means Committee, Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), and Senator Todd Young (R-IN), as well as the Treasury Department. In addition, tax experts from Baker McKenzie, Sullivan & Cromwell, and Brownstein led or moderated discussions concerning potential new taxes on foreign investors, regulatory initiatives, and Opportunity Zones.  (Agenda & Speakers)

Sustainability Policy Advisory Committee (SPAC)

  • SPAC Chair Anthony E. Malkin (Chairman and CEO, Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.) and Vice Chairs Ben Myers (Vice President, Sustainability, BXP) and Katie Rothenberg (VP, ESG, AvalonBay Communities, Inc.) led discussions on (Agenda & Speakers)

Joint Real Estate Capital Policy Advisory Committee (RECPAC) and Research Committee Meeting

  • D. Michael Van Konynenburg (President, Eastdil Secured) provided an overview of conditions in real estate credit and capital markets.
  • Following a national policy update from RER’S Ryan McCormick (SVP & Counsel, RER) and Chip Rodgers (SVP, RER), Research Committee Chair Spencer Levy (Global Chief Client Officer & Senior Economic Advisor, CBRE) and Darin Mellot (Vice President of Capital Markets Research, CBRE) led a discussion on the evolving post Liberation Day impact of tariffs on commercial real estate markets. 
  • Robert Rubano (Executive Vice Chairman, Head of Equity, Debt, & Structured Finance, Cushman & Wakefield) moderated a capital market roundtable with David Bouton (Co-Head of U.S. CMBS, Citigroup), Jack Gay (Senior Managing Director, Global Head of Real Estate Debt, Nuveen Real Estate), Kathryn Ogden, (Head U.S. Corporate Banking and Global Head, Real Estate Capital Partners (RECP), RBC Capital Markets), and Matt Salem (Partner, Head of RE Credit, KKR). (Agenda & Speakers)

Homeland Security Task Force (HSTF) Meeting

  • HSTF Chair Amanda S. Mason (Executive Director, Global Intelligence, Related Companies) facilitated a number of discussions on the current threat picture.  These discussions included a review of the risks to commercial facilities from lithium-ion batteries with John Frank (AXA XL Risk Consulting). The meeting also included a series of briefs from the FBI regarding the threats from terrorist and transnational criminal organizations that are directly threatening U.S. citizens and commercial facilities. These discussions included updates on the role of the cartels in violent crime, the deaths of American citizens from synthetic opioids, and the facilitation of nearly three million illegal migrant arrivals in 2024, putting U.S. communities at risk. Also addressed were the range of cyber and intelligence threats from China, targeting our critical infrastructure. (Agenda & Speakers)

RER’s 2025 Annual Report will be distributed in July. Next on RER’s FY 2025 meeting calendar is the Fall Meeting, which will take place on October 27-28 (restricted to Roundtable-level members only). 

CRE Executives Signal Increased Caution in Q2 Sentiment Survey

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Commercial real estate executives report a decline in market confidence this quarter, as policy uncertainty, rising costs, and investor caution cloud the outlook, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q2 2025 Sentiment Index released today.

Roundtable View

  • The quarterly Sentiment Index, measuring executive perceptions of market conditions, asset values, and capital availability, declined to an overall score of 54, down 14 points from last quarter. The Current Conditions Index dropped to 50, reflecting a 15-point decline, while the Future Conditions Index decreased by 12 points, settling at 58.
  • The Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive.
  • RER President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “While respondents note early signs of market stabilization and improved transactional discipline, lingering concerns over U.S. trade policies and other economic headwinds are tempering optimism for the remainder of 2025. The office sector remains under pressure, but is experiencing a gradual rebound as return-to-office trends continue to shift closer to pre-pandemic patterns.”
  • He added, “Uncertain tariff policies are driving up construction costs and weighing on long-term investment decisions. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady is slowing capital formation and delaying needed transactions. We need pro-growth economic policies that encourage productive investment, strengthen communities, and promote long-term stability. Extending and making the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provisions permanent, along with advancing incentives to address our nation’s housing supply shortage, are crucial to help achieve these goals.”
  • In the May edition of ULI’s Economist Snapshot, RER’s Senior Vice President Clifton E. “Chip” Rodgers Jr. weighed in on how rising tariffs and trade uncertainty are impacting commercial real estate—from delayed development timelines to rising construction costs and reduced foreign investment. (ULI, May 13)

Topline Findings

  • The Q2 2025 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 54, a decrease of 14 points from the previous quarter. The Current Index registered at 50, a 15-point decrease compared to Q1 2025. The Future Index posted a score of 58 points, a decrease of 12 points from the previous quarter, reflecting uncertainty around policy direction, rising costs, and execution risk. While market sentiment remains cautious, respondents are seeing early signs of stabilization and improved transactional discipline. Nevertheless, expectations for improvement have softened compared to last year, and many investors are still hesitant to re-engage.
  • Market conditions remain mixed, with general uncertainty, along with sector and geographic bifurcation, driving sentiment. 37% of respondents believe that general market conditions are worse now compared to the same period last year, and 37% of respondents believe that general market conditions are better than this time last year.
  • Close to half (47%) of Q2 survey participants expect general market conditions to show improvement one year from now, while 20% of Q2 participants expect general market conditions to be somewhat worse in a year.
  • Logistics and high-quality multifamily remain bright spots, while hospitality and office—particularly commodity space—continue to face significant challenges. From a geographic standpoint, the Midwest is showing relative resilience, whereas sentiment around the Sunbelt reflects concern over elevated supply and near-term softened demand.
  • 42% of respondents believe asset values are roughly unchanged compared to a year ago. The remaining respondents are divided, with 22% believing asset prices have increased and 36% believing they have declined. Looking ahead, the outlook is cautious: 38% expect asset prices to remain stable over the next year, while another 38% anticipate a slight decline.
  • Perceptions of equity capital are widely varied, though 34% of respondents believe the availability of equity capital is better than it was a year ago. Sentiment around debt capital has brightened, as 43% said the availability of debt capital has improved from last year. Looking forward, 45% of respondents believe that equity capital availability will be better in one year and 39% believe debt capital availability will be better in one year.

Data for the Q2 survey was gathered by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on RER’s behalf. Read the full Q2 report here.

Momentum Builds for Housing Reform in Washington

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The nation’s housing policy landscape is shifting rapidly as the Trump administration and Congress push forward on multiple fronts—spanning GSE reform, regulatory rollback, and bipartisan legislative efforts to expand affordable housing tools. The Real Estate Roundtable (RER) remains engaged on these developments, reinforcing its priorities through direct advocacy and coalition efforts.

GSE Reform

  • This week, President Trump said he’s “giving very serious consideration” to taking government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public—reigniting debate over the future of the mortgage giants. (WSJ, May 21)
  • “I am giving very serious consideration to bringing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public,” Trump posted Wednesday on Truth Social. Trump also said he would consult with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, as well as the GSEs’ chief regulator, Federal Housing Finance Agency head William Pulte. (Politico, May 21)
  • The GSEs have been in federal conservatorship since 2008, and Congressional action would likely be required to change their legal status.
  • While no active legislative proposals exist, some GOP lawmakers are discussing the sale of the government’s stakes in the GSEs as a potential offset for extending tax cuts. (Politico, May 21)
  • RER supports sensible GSE reform that balances taxpayer protection with ensuring financial stability and continued liquidity for ownership, rental housing, and underserved markets.

Roundtable Advocacy

  • This week, RER joined a coalition of 15 national real estate organizations urging the Department of Labor to repeal and revise its 2023 Davis-Bacon rule. (Letter, May 20)
  • In the letter sent to Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Scott Turner and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, the coalition applauded the administration’s focus on affordability and supply, and called for an end to outdated wage classifications that drive up project costs.
  • The current rule increases housing construction costs by up to 20% and deters developer participation in federally funded projects.
  • The letter recommends suspending enforcement and launching a formal rulemaking to streamline compliance and reduce regulatory risk.
  • In a separate letter, RER voiced strong support for the bipartisan Housing Affordability Act introduced (S.1527) by Senators Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Dave McCormick (R-PA) to modernize the FHA multifamily insurance program. (Letter, May 13)
  • Outdated statutory limits, unchanged since 2003, are suppressing the number of insurable housing units and acting as a barrier to middle-income housing development.
  • Updating the limits would unlock private capital, free up federal resources, and bring the program in line with modern construction costs.

LIHTC Expansion Clears the House

  • The reconciliation bill that passed in the House this week includes major provisions from the Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act (AHCIA), marking the most significant increase in Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) resources in 25 years. (Affordable Housing Finance, May 22)
  • Although the entire bill was not incorporated into the package, the elements that were included still amount to a significant expansion of the program.
  • The elements included in the bill—increase the 9% credit volume cap, lower the bond financing threshold to 25% for 4% housing credit projects, and authorize up to a 30% basis boost for rural and tribal developments.

Federal Land Sales to Expand Housing Supply

  • HUD Secretary Scott Turner and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum are advancing the administration’s plan to sell underutilized federal land for new housing construction. (Bloomberg, May 22)
  • Their coordinated effort aims to unleash more of the government’s 640 million acres for development—particularly affordable and workforce housing. (PoliticoPro, May 20)

RER will continue to advocate for smart, market-based solutions that expand housing supply, reduce regulatory barriers, and support investment across the full spectrum of the nation’s housing needs.

ENERGY STAR and IRA Tax Credits Remain Front and Center

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Lawmakers put energy policy under a microscope this week, as Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin appeared before Congress regarding the agency’s FY2026 budget request and addressed concerns over the future of the ENERGY STAR program. Additionally, significant changes to the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) energy tax credits were included in the One Big Beautiful Bill that passed in the House on Thursday morning.

Roundtable Advocacy

  • This week, The Real Estate Roundtable (RER) joined a coalition of real estate organizations in writing to key members of the House and Senate committees to urge continued funding for the ENERGY STAR program. (Letter)
  • As House appropriators begin drafting FY2026 spending bills, the letter urged committees to maintain funding for ENERGY STAR—highlighting the program’s bipartisan value and pro-business message. (PoliticoPro, May 21)
  • The letter emphasized ENERGY STAR’s value as a voluntary, market-based public-private partnership that helps building owners and managers benchmark building performance, reduce utility costs, and bolster grid reliability. (Roundtable Weekly, May 16)
  • The coalition letter built upon earlier communications RER and partner organizations sent to the EPA and Department of Energy (DOE) opposing a potential phaseout of the program’s foundational benchmarking platform, Portfolio Manager. (Letters: May 14 and April 4)

Hearings This Week

  • EPA Administrator Zeldin appeared before the House and Senate panels this week to defend the EPA’s FY2026 budget request. (E&E News, May 21)
  • Lawmakers voiced concerns about EPA plans to wind down or defund ENERGY STAR. (Rep. Paul Tonko (D-NY) Press Release, May 20)
  • Rep. Darren Soto (D-FL) questioned Zeldin directly about the administration’s plans. In response, Zeldin claimed that ENERGY STAR is not a statutory obligation. (E&E News, May 21). However, the real estate coalition’s letter to Congress this week, cites multiple examples of bipartisan legislation that authorizes ENERGY STAR as a federal program.
  • On Thursday, Senators Peter Welch (D-VT) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) led 20 colleagues in a letter to EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin and Energy Secretary Christ Wright, urging the Trump administration to reverse its plan to eliminate the ENERGY STAR program—citing its bipartisan support, billions in consumer energy savings, and nearly 800,000 U.S. jobs it helps sustain. (Sen. Welch Press Release, May 21)

IRA Clean Energy Tax Credits

  • The One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed by the House Thursday would end IRA tax incentives for clean energy projects (like solar and storage) earlier than initially proposed. (Bloomberg, May 21)
  • Late-night modifications to the bill, accelerate the repeal of the clean energy production (45Y) and investment (48E) tech-neutral credits, limiting their eligibility to only projects that have started construction within 60 days of the bill’s enactment and which are put into service before January 1, 2029. (Utility Dive, May 22) 
  • The initial version of the bill proposed by House Republicans had a longer phase-out time, which would have allowed many of the IRA’s energy tax credits to remain until 2032. (Bloomberg, May 21)
  • The Senate may take a more measured approach. Several Senate Republicans have voiced support for maintaining IRA incentives that bolster U.S. manufacturing, enhance grid reliability, and support domestic clean energy production. (Roundtable Weekly, April 25; Semafor, May 22)

RER supports an “all of the above” energy efficiency, generation, and storage agenda and will continue to engage lawmakers and share member perspectives on effective energy policies that strengthen industry and economic growth.

“One Big Beautiful Bill” Moves Through to the Senate as House Republicans Unite on Trump Tax Plan

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House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) met his self-imposed Memorial Day deadline as dissenting factions within the caucus reached an agreement on a series of last-minute changes, culminating in a razor-thin vote (215-214) on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act early Thursday morning. The budget reconciliation measure—which has wide implications for CRE—now goes to the Senate, where a similar tug of war could play out. (Ways & Means Press Release, May 22)

State of Play

  • The House Budget Committee voted late Sunday night to advance President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act after several GOP hard-liners on the Committee blocked the measure from moving forward last Friday. (ABC News, May 19)
  • President Trump traveled to Capitol Hill Tuesday morning to deliver a message to House Republicans impeding the massive bill, a critical part of his domestic agenda: stop fighting and get it done as soon as possible. (NBC News, May 20)
  • The chamber took action, clearing the sprawling package in an early-morning vote Thursday after days of marathon meetings, intense negotiations that spanned both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, and a series of swift changes to the bill, which were crucial in coalescing Republicans around the measure. (The Hill, May 22)
  • House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) said that he’s been working “hand in glove” with Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-ID) on the tax package and had crafted it intentionally so it could survive the Senate’s rules. “I think 90 to 95 percent of the bill is going to be pretty much very similar,” he said previously. (Bloomberg, May 22)

Implications for CRE

  • The legislation includes an extension of the 2017 tax cuts, while maintaining the full deductibility of state and local business property tax deductions (also known as “Business SALT”) and preserving the current treatment of carried interest, two key priorities for The Roundtable in the current tax negotiations.
  • Additionally, the pass-through deduction under Section 199A would increase from 20 percent to 23 percent for qualifying income, including REIT dividends and the real estate operating income of partnerships and other pass-through entities. A late addition to the bill will allow REITs greater flexibility in their use of taxable REIT subsidiaries. (The Hill, May 21)
  • The bill extends the Opportunity Zone (OZ) tax incentives through 2033, with several updated eligibility criteria and new benefits for rural areas. This legislation also calls for a new round of OZ designations by state governors. (Mortgage Point, May 22)
  • Other positive developments include an expansion of the low-income housing tax credit and the reinstatement of 100 percent expensing for qualifying leasehold and nonresidential property improvements.
  • Now, the Senate will debate and craft its version of the bill, which it aims to pass by July 4. (The Hill, May 21; CNBC, May 22)

The Roundtable’s Position

  • RER expressed support for the House’s budget reconciliation measure. The extension of TCJA policies, preservation of property tax deductibility, continued capital gains treatment for carried interest, increased investment in affordable housing, and enhanced pass-through deduction are all positive developments. 
  • “Taken as a whole, the tax proposals in the Chairman’s amendment will spur needed investment in our nation’s housing supply, strengthen urban and rural communities, and grow the broader economy to the benefit of all Americans,” said RER President and CEO Jeff DeBoer in a recent statement following the House Ways and Means Committee’s bill markup last week.

What’s Next       

  • The action on the tax and fiscal legislation now shifts to the U.S Senate where Republicans are operating under similar tight margins.
  • Senate Republican leaders have not yet decided whether they will mark up the reconciliation bill in the various committees of jurisdiction. Finance Chairman Crapo could bring a substitute amendment straight to the Senate floor sometime in June.

RER will work to ensure that these hard-fought victories are protected in any final tax package.

Commercial Real Estate Executives Signal Increased Caution in Q2 Sentiment Survey

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(WASHINGTON, D.C.) — The Real Estate Roundtable (RER) today released its Q2 2025 Sentiment Index, reporting a decrease in confidence in the commercial real estate market environment among industry executives due to policy uncertainty, rising costs, and cautious investor sentiment. The quarterly Sentiment Index, measuring executive perceptions on market conditions, asset values, and capital availability, declined to an overall score of 54, down 14 points from last quarter. The Current Conditions Index dropped to 50, reflecting a 15-point decline, while the Future Conditions Index decreased by 12 points, settling at 58. The Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive.

RER President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “While respondents note early signs of market stabilization and improved transactional discipline, lingering concerns over U.S. trade policies and other economic headwinds are tempering optimism for the remainder of 2025. The office sector remains under pressure, but is experiencing a gradual rebound as return-to-office trends continue to shift closer to pre-pandemic patterns.”

He added, “Uncertain tariff policies are driving up construction costs and weighing on long-term investment decisions. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady is slowing capital formation and delaying needed transactions. We need pro-growth economic policies that encourage productive investment, strengthen communities, and promote long-term stability. Extending and making the2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provisions permanent, along with advancing incentives to address our nation’s housing supply shortage, are crucial to help achieve these goals.”

The Q2 Sentiment Index topline findings include:

  • The Q2 2025 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 54, a decrease of 14 points from the previous quarter. The Current Index registered at 50, a 15-point decrease compared to Q1 2025. The Future Index posted a score of 58 points, a decrease of 12 points from the previous quarter, reflecting uncertainty around policy direction, rising costs, and execution risk. While market sentiment remains cautious, respondents are seeing early signs of stabilization and improved transactional discipline. Nevertheless, expectations for improvement have softened compared to last year, and many investors remain hesitant to re-engage.
  • Market conditions remain mixed, with general uncertainty, along with sector and geographic bifurcation, driving sentiment. 37% of respondents believe that general market conditions are worse than this time last year, and 37% of respondents believe that general market conditions are better than this time last year. Close to half (47%) of Q2 survey participants expect general market conditions to show improvement one year from now, while 20% of Q2 participants expect general market conditions to be somewhat worse in a year. Logistics and high-quality multifamily remain bright spots, while hospitality and office—particularly commodity space—continue to face significant challenges. From a geographic standpoint, the Midwest is showing relative resilience, whereas sentiment around the Sunbelt reflects concern over elevated supply and near-term softened demand.
  • 42% of respondents believe asset values are roughly unchanged compared to a year ago. The remaining respondents are divided, with 22% believing asset prices have increased and 36% believing they have declined. Looking ahead, the outlook is cautious: 38% expect asset prices to remain stable over the next year, while another 38% anticipate a slight decline.
  • Perceptions of equity capital are widely varied, though 34% of respondents believe the availability of equity capital is better than it was a year ago. Sentiment around debt capital has brightened, as 43% said the availability of debt capital has improved from last year. Looking forward, 45% of respondents believe that equity capital availability will be better in one year and 39% believe debt capital availability will be better in one year.

Some sample responses from participants in the Sentiment Index’s Q2 survey include:

“The one thing that every investor – domestic and foreign – wants is stability. The environment in the United States is incredibly unstable, so some of our investors are sitting on the sidelines.”

“Foreign capital flows into the U.S. will shrink in the near term. That said, the U.S. is typically the first market to readjust in terms of pricing, and that will create opportunity.”

“We’re starting to see slightly more trades, which opens up the door to better visibility into valuations, and as a result, may improve the comfort and volume of future trades.”

Data for the Q2 survey was gathered by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on RER’s behalf in April. See the full Q2 report.

The Real Estate Roundtable brings together leaders of the nation’s top publicly-held and privately-owned real estate ownership, development, lending and management firms with the leaders of major national real estate trade associations to jointly address key national policy issues relating to real estate and the overall economy.

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Roundtable Members Featured in Commercial Observer’s “Power 100” List of 2025 Most Influential Leaders in CRE

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This week, Commercial Observer released their “Power 100” list of prominent industry leaders, which includes RER Chair Kathleen McCarthy (Global Co-Head of Blackstone Real Estate, Blackstone), President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer, 8 other RER board directors, and many other RER members. (Commercial Observer, May 13)

CRE Industry Leadership

  • Commercial Observer begins its list by acknowledging what has been a roller coaster of a year so far for CRE, celebrating return to office mandates and steady interest rates while acknowledging April’s volatility and the ever-present housing crisis.
  • In balancing these factors, Commercial Observer identified those included on the list as “the names who have run faster, stretched their arms out farther, and are beating their boats against the current—in their case, ceaselessly into the future.” (Commercial Observer, May 13)
  • The article describes RER as the “top lobby for commercial real estate in Washington, D.C.,” noting RER’s role in helping policymakers understand and address critical issues facing the industry and the country.

RER’s Role

  • As RER President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer explained to Commercial Observer, “I’m in the information business… I try to inform policymakers about an industry that they may not be fully familiar with.”
  • Federal policy has been top of mind for many CRE executives in the past few months, as uncertainty around tariffs, tax negotiations, federal leasing, and other key issues continues to grow. This has bolstered the need to ensure that the unified voice of the real estate industry is heard and impactful in Washington. (Commercial Observer, May 13)
  • This is especially crucial in a political environment that DeBoer describedas “March Madness, but not the NCAA basketball Tournament,” to CO in late March. (Commercial Observer, May 13)
  • Members of RER’s board of directors and former RER chairs on Commercial Observer’s Power 100 list this year include:
    • RER Chair Kathleen McCarthy (Global Co-Head of Blackstone Real Estate, Blackstone), #2
    • Jeff Blau (CEO, Related Companies), #4
    • Rob Speyer (President and CEO, Tishman Speyer), #5
    • Owen Thomas (Chairman & CEO, BXP), #8
    • RER Chair Emeritus (2015-2018) William Rudin (Co-Executive Chairman, Rudin), #13
    • Barry Sternlicht (Chairman & CEO, Starwood Capital Group), #14
    • Scott Rechler (Chairman & CEO, RXR), #21
    • Mark J. Parrell (President & CEO, Equity Residential), #33
    • Chair of RER’s Sustainability Policy Advisory Committee (SPAC) Anthony Malkin (Chairman and CEO, Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.), #37
    • RER President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer, #90
    • Diane Hoskins (Global Chair, The Urban Land Institute, Global Co-Chair, Gensler), #95

Policymakers and Industry Advocates Focus on ENERGY STAR Support, Clean Energy Tax Credits

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As Republican lawmakers released a sweeping tax package this week and considered federal spending for the next fiscal year, The Real Estate Roundtable (RER) and industry allies continued to advocate for the ENERGY STAR program amid efforts to cut Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clean energy credits.

Roundtable Advocacy

  • This week, RER along with eleven industry partners submitted a letter to U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Wright reiterating the message of support for ENERGY STAR, and the benefits of the program driving down utility costs, bolstering grid reliability, and supporting U.S. economic competitiveness by helping building owners and managers benchmark performance and cut waste (Letter, May 14) (RW, May 9)
  • In April, RER and 17 industry organizations sent a letter to EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin expressing strong support for the program. (Roundtable Weekly, April 4)
  • In a Washington Post op-ed this week, former EPA Administrator William K. Reilly (1989-1993) described the program as “government at its best,” noting it was never intended as a climate policy tool but rather a cost-saving initiative embraced by businesses, developers, and consumers alike. (Washington Post, May 14)

Hearings This Week

  • EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin testified at Appropriation Committee House and Senate hearings this week regarding the president’s budget, but offered no clarity on ENERGY STAR’s future.
  • Lawmakers on both committees voiced concern over the scope of proposed EPA spending cuts.
  • The chair of the House’s Interior-EPA spending subcommittee Mike Simpson (R-ID) told Zeldin during the hearing, the administration’s proposed 55% EPA budget cut was unlikely to be accepted. (PoliticoPro, May 15)
  • In the Senate, Appropriations Subcommittee on Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies Chair Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) called the FY2026 EPA budget proposal “unserious” and “problematic.” (Sen. Murkowski Remarks, May 15)

IRA Clean Energy Tax Credits

  • The House Ways and Means Committee advanced its reconciliation bill that proposes sweeping changes to the IRA.

  • The bill terminates or phases out most of the clean energy tax credits that were expanded or created in the IRA.
  • Over past few weeks, several Senate and House Republicans have written to leadership expressing their support for maintaining energy incentives that benefit both traditional and renewable energy sectors, and urging a more selective approach to scaling back the IRA’s tax provisions. (RW, April 25)
  • Ways and Means vice chair Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-FL), a defender of IRA clean energy credits, said in an interview Wednesday he hopes Senate Republicans will make changes to the committee’s rollback of incentives. (Politico, May 14)

The Roundtable continues to engage lawmakers to ensure balanced, effective energy policies that support industry and economic growth.

House Ways and Means Advances GOP Tax Bill

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The House Ways and Means Committee this week passed a comprehensive tax package that preserves critical features of current law while extending and improving real estate provisions supported by The Real Estate Roundtable. However, the legislation encountered a substantial setback Friday morning, when the House Budget Committee rejected the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which combined the work of the Ways and Means and other House committees. (Axios, May 16)

“Taken as a whole, the tax proposals in the Chairman’s amendment will spur needed investment in our nation’s housing supply, strengthen urban and rural communities, and grow the broader economy to the benefit of all Americans,” said Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer.  (Read DeBoer’s full statement here)

State of Play

  • The House Budget Committee rejected the bill in a 16-21 vote after GOP leadership failed to secure sufficient support from several Republican holdouts. (Axios, May 16)
  • President Trump on Friday urged Republicans to fall in line and support the massive reconciliation package amid sparring among members on the Hill over various provisions. “Republicans MUST UNITE behind, ‘THE ONE, BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL!’” Trump posted on Truth Social.
  • House GOP leaders plan to continue private talks with the reluctant Republicans and the White House over the weekend in hopes of resurrecting the package next week. (Politico, May 16)

What’s In and Out for CRE

  • As currently drafted, the House legislation maintains the full deductibility of state and local business-related property taxes.
  • Carried interest, capital gains, like-kind exchanges, and general cost recovery periods for commercial real estate would remain unchanged.
  • Section 199A Deduction Boost: The legislation permanently increases the pass-through business income deduction from 20% to 23%, preserving eligibility for REIT dividends and effectively lowering the maximum tax rate on qualifying income to 28.49%.
  • 100% Bonus Depreciation: The Ways and Means Committee is proposing to reinstate 100% bonus depreciation for five years (2025–2030), incentivizing investments and upgrades in nonresidential properties.
  • Opportunity Zones: The legislation extends the Opportunity Zone tax incentives through 2033 and would set aside 33% of new OZ designations for rural areas.
  • Low-Income Housing Tax Credit: The legislation increases the allocation of low-income housing credits by 12.5% for four years and permanently reduces the threshold of private activity bond financing necessary for projects to otherwise qualify for credits.
  • Energy Tax Incentives: The Ways and Means legislation repeals or phases out tax incentives such as the section 48 tax credit for solar panel and other clean energy investments, the 45L tax credit for new home construction, and the section 30C tax credit for EV recharging stations.  (See more in Energy story below) 
  • Factory Expensing: Other tax changes would temporarily allow newly constructed manufacturing, agricultural and refining properties to qualify for 100% expensing.

Roundtable Advocacy

  • RER President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer provided insights on these developments during a fireside chat at the ULI Spring Meeting in Denver this week. DeBoer discussed the current political climate, policy implications for commercial real estate, and outlined both emerging risks and opportunities shaping the industry’s future.

Housing News

  • The Ways and Means Committee’s provisions to expand the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) align with components of the Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act (AHCIA).  (Affordable Housing Finance, May 16) (RW, May 2)
  • The House Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance held a hearing this week titled, “Expanding Choice and Increasing Supply: Housing Innovation in America,” focused on how modern construction technologies could increase moderate-income housing supply while identifying regulatory and financing barriers that limit broader adoption.
  • Lawmakers and witnesses explored alternative housing solutions such as manufactured housing, modular construction, and 3-D printed homes as ways to help close the housing supply gap.  (Watch Hearing, May 14)

Looking Ahead

  • House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) expressed interest in passing a separate bipartisan tax package by the end of the year, at an appearance at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. earlier this week. This package would include expiring tax provisions and healthcare-related items.
  • “I would love to work with Sen. Wyden, Chairman Crapo, ranking member Neal in trying to craft a bipartisan bill before the end of the year, because there’s a lot of tax provisions that I really care about that are expiring, or have expired, that are truly, truly bipartisan,” said Smith. (PoliticoPro, May 15)
  • Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-ID) and fellow panel member Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) are pushing to extend business tax cuts beyond the expiration set by Ways and Means, the latest change the Senate wants to make to the bill. (Reuters, May 16)

With the Budget Committee setback, the immediate future of the tax package is uncertain. But the provisions are certain to change further as the debate shifts to the Senate.