President Biden’s FY2025 Budget Calls for $4.9 Trillion in Tax Increases

The Biden administration this week released its $7.3 trillion FY2025 budget request, which includes $4.9 trillion in tax increases and several tax proposals impacting capital gains. The Treasury Department also released its “Green Book,” which provides detailed descriptions of the budget’s tax proposals and associated revenue estimates. (White House budget and Treasury news release, March 11)

Capital Gains Focus

  • The White House’s annual budget represents the economic policy agenda of the Biden administration. While it is a wish list with no immediate impact, it sets a marker for upcoming debates on spending and fiscal priorities in Congress and throughout the upcoming election. This week’s budget document includes many of the same tax proposals in President Biden’s previous budgets and policies outlined during his State of the Union address last week. (Roundtable Weekly, March 8 and White House Fact Sheet on the Budget, March 11)
  • The FY2025 Green Book repeats the administration’s proposal to tax capital gains at ordinary income rates—nearly doubling the capital gains rate from 20% to 39.6%.  The budget would also increase the net investment income tax from 3.8% to 5% and extend the tax to all pass-through business income, effectively ending the exception for real estate professionals active in the business. As a result, the top combined tax rate on real estate capital gains and rental income would rise to 44.6%.
  • Other tax proposals in the budget would create a 25% minimum tax on the unrealized gains and income of individuals with more than $100 million in wealth, recapture depreciation deductions at ordinary income rates when real estate is sold, and raise the top personal income tax rate from 37% to 39.6% for those making more than $400,000. The president also proposes to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. (The Hill, March 13)
  • Biden’s 2025 budget would largely eliminate the deferral of capital gain through like-kind exchanges (section 1031) and tax all carried interest as ordinary income. (White House Fact Sheet, March 11)

Tax Debates Begin

  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will testify on the administration’s budget and tax proposals before the Senate Finance Committee March 21 and during an upcoming House Ways and Means Committee hearing.
  • The Green Book will serve as a reference for congressional Democrats who develop large-scale tax legislation for the next Congress in anticipation of the expiration of 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions at the end of 2025.
  • As the FY2025 budget proposals spark a wide-ranging tax debate, a current $79 billion tax packagepassed by the House and supported by The Roundtable—is pending in the Senate. (CQ News | Politico Pro | Tax Notes, March 15). Additional proposals in the budget impact housing policy—see story below.

Joint Employer Rule Struck

  • Separately, a federal court on March 8 blocked the National Labor Relations Board’s (NLRB) final joint-employment standard rule. The decision from the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas addressed whether the expansive definition has the potential to expose broad swaths of employers to liability for labor law violations committed by contractors or franchisees. The court vacated the NLRB rule, stating the joint-employment standard interpretation is too broad. (Politico Weekly Shift, March 11, 2024 and Roundtable Weekly, Jan. 17, 2020)

As an appeal from NLRB is expected, employers should continue to comply with the current joint-employer rule adopted in 2020. (JD Supra, March 14)

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President Biden Proposes New Housing Incentives, Increased Taxes on Wealthy Individuals and Public Corporations

President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address last night included proposals to levy a 25 percent minimum tax on wealthy individuals, increase the corporate tax rate from 21 to 28 percent, and raise the alternative minimum tax on large corporations from 15 to 21 percent. He also called on Congress to pass legislation to support the construction or rehabilitation of more than 2 million homes and rolled out new tax incentives for homebuyers. (Biden’s Remarks | White House Fact Sheets on Taxes and Housing, March 7)

Proposed Tax Increases

  • Biden proposed to levy a 25 percent minimum tax on those with wealth of more than $100 million. He committed to not raising taxes on those making $400,000 or less while heavily criticizing the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) as a $2 trillion giveaway to high-income households and corporations. (Tax Policy Center | Forbes, March 8)
  • Most of the Biden tax agenda is carried over from his prior budgets and includes provisions that he was unable to pass when Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress. While not detailed in his speech, the White House’s upcoming 2025 budget could include past proposals to raise taxes on real estate like-kind exchanges and carried interest income. (Roundtable Weekly, March 10, 2023)
  • Many provisions from the 2017 tax bill will expire at the end of 2025, including the 20 percent deduction for pass-through business income, the cap on the deductibility of state and local taxes, and the reduction in the top individual tax rate from 39.6 to 37 percent. The approaching expiration of the individual provisions creates a tax “cliff” that is likely to drive tax negotiations next year.

Housing Plan

Real Estate coalition  response to President Biden's SOTU housing proposals.
Real estate coalition response to President Biden’s SOTU housing proposals.
  • The White House’s Fact Sheet on housing describes the administration’s plans to establish new tax credits for first-time homebuyers and individuals who sell their starter homes. The tax credit for home sellers seeks to address the “lock-in” effect associated with current high interest rates.The president would also increase spending on affordable housing by Federal Home Loan Banks. (PoliticoPro and White House Fact Sheet on Housing, March 7)
  • The White House Fact Sheet also includes an expansion of the low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC) to support an additional 1.2 million affordable rental units and a new Neighborhood Homes Tax Credit to encourage the construction or preservation of over 400,000 affordable, owner-occupied homes. Bipartisan legislation to expand LIHTC passed the House in January and is pending in the Senate.
  • The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) and nine industry groups responded to the negative aspects of Biden’s housing plan. A coalition letter explained how proposals to limit fee for service arrangements would hurt renters by undermining the administration’s objectives of lowering housing costs, driving new housing development, and creating more affordable rental housing. President Biden has also supported Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission investigations into rental rate fixing—investigations that many in the industry believe are highly questionable. (NMHC statement and real estate coalition letter, March 7)

Funding Watch

  • After the House passed a spending package this week to fund several federal agencies through September, the Senate has until midnight tonight to pass the bill and avoid a partial government shutdown.
  • Approval from all 100 senators is necessary to fast track the process. The consideration of multiple amendments could delay a final vote until Saturday, necessitating a temporary funding extension to avoid disruption and get the final bill to President Biden for his signature. (The Hill, March 8)

The next government funding deadline is March 22, which requires a new spending package to fund the Pentagon, Health and Human Services, Labor, and other agencies. Policymakers agreed on this two-tiered stopgap funding plan (March 8 and 22) to buy time to negotiate a full-year appropriations bill. (Roundtable Weekly, March 1)

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Senate Republicans Seek Changes to House-Passed Tax Package

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR), left, and Ranking Member Mike Crapo (R-ID), right.

The Senate Finance Committee’s top Republican made it clear this week that he wants changes to a House-passed $78 billion tax package, which includes Roundtable-supported measures on business interest deductibility, bonus depreciation, and the low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC). [Roundtable Weekly, Feb. 2 | PoliticoPro and Tax Notes, Feb. 29]

Senate Republicans Concerns

  • The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024 (H.R. 7024) passed the House on Jan. 31 by an overwhelming 357-70 vote. House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR) are pressing Senators to support its passage. (Axios, Feb. 16)
  • Senate Republicans considering the House tax package have called for an amendment process that could be time consuming. (The Hill, Feb. 2)
  • Finance Committee Ranking Member Mike Crapo (R-ID) laid out the changes he would like to see in the bill in a Feb. 28 news release. A major issue for Sen. Crapo is a reform to the Child Tax Credit (CTC) that allows taxpayers to rely on income from prior years when determining their eligibility for the refundable credit. (Fiscal Times, Feb. 29)
  • Sen. Crapo added in comments to Tax Notes this week that “There’s just a lot of separate issues that need to get sorted out. Everything from traditional extenders to LIHTC to SECURE 2.0.”

Congressional Timing

  • Sen. Crapo also stated in his news release that “… with each week that has passed, (Republican) members have strongly voiced additional calls for numerous modifications, and there are also increasing concerns about making 2023 changes this far into the IRS tax filing season.” The Senator said he is “committed to seeking a bipartisan resolution that a majority of Senate Republicans can support.” (Tax Notes, Feb. 29)
  • Sen. Wyden and senior congressional staff discussed the tax package with Roundtable members during The Roundtable’s all-member 2024 State of the Industry Meeting in Washington. (Roundtable Weekly, Jan. 26)
  • Additionally, The Roundtable and 21 other industry organizations that comprise the Housing Affordability Coalition urged the Senate on Feb. 15 to pass the tax package. The coalition’s letter emphasized the importance of advancing provisions in (H.R. 7024) that strengthen the low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC)—along with various real estate investment measures that would benefit communities and the broader economy. (Coalition letter, Feb. 15)

The best chances for enacting the tax package may be in combination with a government funding bill later in March. (See story above).

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Government Shutdown Looms … Coalition Supports YIMBY Bill … SEC Scope 3 Emissions Rule

Congress returns next week to address an imminent government shutdown. Unless the House and Senate pass a long-term budget or short-term stopgap by March 1, 20 percent of funding for the current fiscal year will expire – with remaining federal operations potentially ceasing on March 8.  (Forbes | (Politico, Feb. 21)

Funding Negotiations

  • Policy riders on issues such as abortion, gender-affirming care, and medical research remain contentious issues.
  • Axios reported this week that House Republicans expect some version of a shutdown before passing a new funding bill. Congress has approved three continuing resolutions since Sept. 30 to keep the government open with current funding in place, as a full budget for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 remains elusive. (Committee for a Responsible Budget, Feb. 13)
  • Congress must also take into account a key date of April 30, when a 1 percent cut in all federal funding (including Pentagon programs) will take effect without passage of fiscal legislation. (Federal News Network, Dec. 26, 2023)

Pending Tax Package

House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith [R-MO]
  • A bipartisan $79 billion tax package that was overwhelmingly approved by the House on Jan. 31faces potential hurdles in the Senate. The bill contains Roundtable-supported measures on business interest deductibility, bonus depreciation, and the low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC). (Roundtable Weekly, Feb. 2 and Jan. 19)
  • Leading congressional tax writers are considering adding the House-passed tax package to a potential spending bill. House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith [R-MO] recently told Axios that he is meeting with Republican senators to pass the limited tax extenders package as a prelude to next year’s effort on whether to extend tax cuts passed in 2017 as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. (TaxNotes Talk podcast, Feb. 21)
  • Smith commented, “For one it breaks the dam. There has not been any kind of even a small extenders package passed in three years and let alone in divided government. And so 2025 is the Super Bowl of tax.” (Axios, Feb. 16)

“Yes in My Backyard” Coalition

The Yes In My Backyard (YIMBY) Act -- H.R. 3507
  • This week, The Real Estate Roundtable and 21 other national organizations expressed their strong support for the bipartisan Yes in My Backyard Act (YIMBY) in their latest letter to the House Financial Services Committee (Coalition letter, Feb. 20)
  • H.R. 3057, introduced by Congressmen Mike Flood (R-NE) and Derek Kilmer (D-WA), would help promote development of affordable housing by requiring local governments that receive certain federal grants to report on their practices to support high-density development.
  • Separately, the Wall Street Journal (Feb. 20) highlighted that community opposition to new projects is not just restricted to housing developments. E-Commerce hubs are also “increasingly contending with a headache” of NIMBY sentiments, as developers of warehouse and logistics properties face the conundrum of siting projects that are necessary to deliver goods to residents and consumers.     

SEC & Scope 3 Disclosure

The SEC must still vote on the final regulation before its release. Progressive Democrats in Congress will likely object to any rule that relieves registered companies from Scope 3 reporting.

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Roundtable and Housing Affordability Coalition Urge Senate to Pass Tax Package

Housing Affordability Coalition logos

This week, The Real Estate Roundtable and 21 other industry organizations urged the Senate to pass a tax package that was approved by the House in an overwhelming bipartisan vote (357-70) on Jan. 31. (Coalition letter, Feb. 15)

Tax Provisions in the Senate

  • The Housing Affordability Coalition’s letter to all Senators emphasized the importance of advancing provisions in The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024 (H.R. 7024) that strengthen the low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC)—along with various real estate investment measures that would benefit families, workers, and the national economy.
  • The coalition noted how the bill would increase the supply of housing as a positive response to the nation’s housing affordability crisis. It would also suspend certain tax increases on business investment that took effect in 2022 and 2023. 
  • The Feb. 15 letter focused on details of the bill’s provisions that positively impact the LIHTC, deductibility of business interest, bonus depreciation, and small business expensing.
  • The Roundtable also joined the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) and a large coalition of housing and other real estate groups in a Jan. 26 letter to Congress in support of the tax package. That letter also focused on the bill’s important improvements to the LIHTC, which will significantly increase the construction and rehabilitation of affordable housing over the next three years.

Congressional Timing

U.S. Capitol building
  • Senate Republicans considering the House tax package have called for an amendment process that would be time consuming. (The Hill, Feb. 2)
  • With Congress in recess until the last week of February, there will be limited legislative vehicles available the bill could ride on, just days before a set of government funding deadlines hit on March 1 and 8. The best chances the package could have for inclusion in other legislation include a potential funding bill to prevent an early March government shutdown or a bill to reauthorize the Federal Aviation Administration on March 8.
  • If the tax package is pushed beyond March, it may not be considered until a lame duck session after what is expected to be a contentious election season.

SALT Reform Pinched

  • On Feb. 14, a procedural rule to advance the SALT Marriage Penalty Elimination Act (H.R. 7160) to a floor vote in the House fell short of a majority vote needed to pass.
  • The effort by House lawmakers to double the $10,000 cap on state-and-local tax deductions (SALT) for married couples earning up to $500,000 failed by a vote of 195-225. (RollCall and CQ, Feb. 14)

The tax package (H.R. 7024) passed by the House last month did not address the SALT cap, which led to this week’s consideration of a separate reform measure. The current SALT cap is scheduled to expire at the end of 2025, along with many other measures passed as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017.

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Bipartisan Tax Package with LIHTC and Business Provisions Passes House; Senate Challenges Ahead

A bipartisan $79 billion tax package overwhelmingly approved this week by the House still faces potential hurdles in the Senate. The bill contains Roundtable-supported measures on business interest deductibility, bonus depreciation, and the low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC).  (Associated Press, and Wall Street Journal, Jan. 31 | The Hill, Feb. 2)

Industry Support for House Bill

  • On Wednesday, the House voted 357-70 to pass the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024 (H.R. 7024). House GOP leaders gained additional support for the bill by allowing a floor vote next week on the SALT Marriage Penalty Elimination Act (H.R. 7160), which would increase the cap on state and local tax deductions to $20,000 from $10,000 for married couples. (PoliticoPro and TaxNotes, Feb. 2)
  • House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR) negotiated the larger tax package. Sen. Wyden and senior congressional staff discussed the legislation last week with Roundtable members during The Roundtable’s all-member 2024 State of the Industry Meeting in Washington. (Roundtable Weekly, Jan. 26)
  • Last Friday, The Roundtable joined the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) and a large coalition of housing and other real estate groups in a letter to Congress in support of the tax bill.  The letter focused on the bill’s important improvements to the low-income housing tax credit, which will significantly increase the construction and rehabilitation of affordable housing over the next 3 years. (Coalition letter, Jan. 26)

Tax Measures Face Senate Scrutiny

  • In the Senate, the House-passed tax bill faces an uncertain path forward. Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) and other Republican Senators have raised concerns regarding the lack of a work requirement for the child credit, the cost, the proposed pay-for, and other aspects of the bill. Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-SD) added the bill would not be able to clear a possible Senate filibuster without amendment votes. (The Hill, Feb. 2)
  • Provisions in the House tax bill affecting real estate include:

    • Low-Income Housing Tax Credit
      A Roundtable-supported three-year extension (2023–2025) of the 12.5 percent increase in LIHTC allocations to states. The bill also reforms LIHTC’s tax-exempt bond financing requirement, which will allow more affordable housing projects to receive LIHTC allocations outside of the state cap.

    • Business Interest Deductibility
      A retroactive, four-year extension (2022–2025) of the taxpayer-favorable EBITDA standard for measuring the amount of business interest deductible under section 163(j). The changes do not alter the exception to the interest limitation that applies to interest attributable to a real estate business.

    • Bonus Depreciation 
      Extension of 100 percent bonus depreciation through the end of 2025. As under current law, leasehold and other qualifying interior improvements are eligible for bonus depreciation. In 2026, bonus depreciation would fall to 20 percent and expire altogether after 2026.  

Other provisions in the agreement include reforms to the child tax credit, the expensing of R&D costs, disaster tax relief, a double-taxation tax agreement with Taiwan, and a large pay-for that creates significant new penalties for abuse of the employee retention tax credit (ERTC) rules and accelerates the expiration of the ERTC.

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Congressional Tax Package and Supreme Court Case Focal Points at Roundtable Meeting

Tax policy issues impacting commercial real estate were front and center during This Roundtable’s Jan. 23 State of the Industry (SOI) meeting as policy discussions with congressional tax writers, issue experts, and Roundtable members ranged from specific measures in a recently approved tax package by the House Ways and Means Committee to a landmark Supreme Court case.

Tax: What Lies Ahead

Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey Deboer shakes hands with Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-OR)
  • Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR), right with The Roundtable’s Jeffrey DeBoer, discussed the recent tax package passed by the House Ways and Means Committee and its uncertain path in the Senate. In addition to an expansion of the low-income housing tax credit, the $77 billion bill includes a retroactive, four-year extension (2022–2025) of the taxpayer-favorable EBITDA standard for measuring the amount of business interest deductible under section 163(j). It also contains an extension of 100% bonus depreciation through the end of 2025. (Roundtable Weekly, Jan. 19)
Tax panel with Ryan McCormick and congressional tax staff
  • “What’s in Front of Congressional Tax Writers: 2024 and Beyond” was explored by (left to right) Roundtable Senior Vice President and Counsel Ryan McCormick; Mark Roman, (Staff Director, Republican Majority House Ways and Means Committee); and Joshua Sheinkman (Staff Director, Democrat Majority Senate Finance Committee).  The congressional tax experts discussed measures in the recent tax package and noted the scheduled expiration of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) incentives at the end of 2025—and what proposals may emerge to extend them.

Supreme Court Challenge

•	Roundtable Tax Policy Advisory Committee (TPAC) member Don Susswein (Principal, RSM US LLP)
  • Roundtable Tax Policy Advisory Committee (TPAC) member Don Susswein (Principal, RSM US LLP) presented an overview of an important Supreme Court case (Moore v. United States) that challenges the federal government’s constitutional authority to tax unrealized income. (Roundtable Weekly, Dec. 8)

TPAC holds monthly Zoom calls on timely, compelling tax policy issues affecting CRE. If you are interested in joining, contact The Roundtable’s Ryan McCormick.

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Congress Extends Government Funding Until March, House Ways & Means Approves Tax Package with LIHTC and Business Provisions

President Biden signed legislation today that averts a partial federal government shutdown by extending federal funding to March 1 and 8. The stopgap, passed by Congress yesterday, gives policymakers limited time to negotiate 12 additional bills at an agreed-upon $1.59 trillion limit to fund the government through the end of its fiscal year on Sept. 30. (Associated Press, Jan. 19 | (Politico and The Hill, Jan. 18)

Stopgap Funding

  • Today’s stopgap is the third “continuing resolution” Congress has cleared since the start of the current fiscal year on Oct. 1. Intense opposition from members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus led Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to reach an agreement with Democrats to support the measure. (Wall Street Journal, Jan. 18)
  • A similar short-term spending bill last October led to the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) by House conservatives. (Wall Street Journal, Jan. 8)

Bipartisan Tax Package Advances

House Ways and Means Committee
  • Provisions in the tax bill affecting real estate include:

    • Low-Income Housing Tax Credit
      A Roundtable-supported three-year extension (2023–2025) of the 12.5 percent increase in LIHTC allocations to states. Even more importantly, the agreement reforms LIHTC’s tax-exempt bond financing requirement, which will allow more affordable housing projects to receive LIHTC allocations outside of the state cap, and without requiring projects be financed with 50% tax-exempt bonds.
       
    • Business Interest Deductibility
      A retroactive, four-year extension (2022–2025) of the taxpayer-favorable EBITDA standard for measuring the amount of business interest deductible under section 163(j). The changes do not alter the exception to the interest limitation that applies to interest attributable to a real estate business.

    • Bonus Depreciation 
      Extension of 100 percent bonus depreciation through the end of 2025. As under current law, leasehold and other qualifying interior improvements are eligible for bonus depreciation. In 2026, bonus depreciation would fall to 20 percent and expire altogether after 2026.  

  • Other provisions in the agreement include reforms to the child tax credit, the expensing of R&D costs, disaster tax relief, a double-taxation tax agreement with Taiwan, and a large pay-for that creates significant new penalties for abuse of the employee retention tax credit (ERTC) rules and accelerates the expiration of the ERTC.

Sen. Wyden and senior congressional staff will discuss tax legislation with Roundtable members during The Roundtable’s all-member 2024 State of the Industry Meeting in Washington next week.

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Congress Struggles to Assemble Stopgap Funding Measure as Policymakers Negotiate Elements of Potential Tax Package

House and Senate lawmakers are discussing a short-term stopgap measure aimed at avoiding government shutdown deadlines on Jan. 19 and Feb. 2, which would also buy time to negotiate additional funding through the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30. Meanwhile, with tax filing season slated to begin Jan. 29, congressional tax writers reported making progress this week on a potential tax package that includes measures on business interest deductibility, bonus depreciation, and the child tax credit. (CQ | PoliticoPro | TaxNotes, Jan. 11)

Funding Challenge

  • Sen. John Thune (R-SD), the second-ranking Republican in the Senate, said on Tuesday that a stopgap bill with funding until March might be necessary. “What that looks like next week, and where it originates, House or Senate, remains to be seen.” Thune said. (Roll Call, Jan. 9 and PunchBowl News, Jan. 10)
  • Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) announced yesterday that the Senate will consider a “continuing resolution” to keep the government open. “A shutdown is looming over us, starting on Jan. 19, about a week away. Unfortunately, it has become crystal clear that it will take more than a week to finish the appropriations process.” (CBS News and CQ, Jan. 11)
  • In the House, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is struggling to obtain the approval of conservative Republicans on a spending agreement announced on Sunday for a $1.66 trillion spending plan for the federal government. (The Hill, Jan. 11 and AP, Jan. 8))
  • Republicans currently hold a 220-seat majority in the House while Democrats control 213, which means Johnson can afford to lose only three votes in his caucus for the GOP to pass legislation in the lower chamber by party-line vote. (AP, Jan 11 | CNN, Jan. 9 | AlterNet, Jan. 2)

Tax Package Negotiations

  • On Wednesday, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR) and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO), above, presented their members with an outline of a potential, three-year $70 billion tax package
  • Disagreements continue over the scope of a potential child tax credit and low-income housing tax credit in exchange for partial restorations of business tax credits such as business interest deductibility and bonus depreciation. (MarketWatch and PunchBowl, Jan. 11 | PoliticoPro and Wall Street Journal, Jan. 10)
  • Issues that remain under consideration include a Roundtable-supported expansion of the low-income housing tax credit and the deductibility of state and local taxes (SALT). Sen. Wyden and senior congressional staff will discuss tax legislation with Roundtable members during The Roundtable’s all-member 2024 State of the Industry Meeting on Jan. 23-24.

Preview of Coming Tax Battles

PWC 2024 Tax Policy Outlook figure 8
  • Current discussions among congressional tax negotiators are a precursor for a much larger challenge next year, when 23 different provisions in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will change or expire at the end of 2025, including the deduction for pass-through business income and the cap on the SALT deduction. (Roundtable Weekly, May 26)
  • PWC emphasized the stakes in next year’s tax negotiations in its “2024 Tax Policy Outlook” released yesterday. PwC’s National Tax Services Co-Leader Rohit Kumar told PoliticoPro that the current tax package under consideration would amount to only a “rounding error” when compared to the value of all the TCJA provisions. Today’s Wall Street Journal estimated there are $6 trillion in taxes at stake in this year’s elections.
  • Policymakers’ efforts to pass government funding and negotiate a tax package come as office vacancies hit a record high in the fourth quarter of last year, according to a Moody’s Analytics released Jan. 8.

The Moody’s report shows the national office vacancy rate rose 40 bps to a record-breaking 19.6 percent. The new record shatters the previous rate of 19.3% set twice previously—and reflects changing trends in business needs and the recent shift towards in remote work arrangements. (Wall Street Journal and ConnectCRE, Jan. 8)

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Congress Faces Shutdown Deadlines as Domestic Funding and Foreign Aid Priorities Dominate Early 2024 Agenda

Congress faces a looming set of government shutdown deadlines early in the New Year as pressure builds on lawmakers to balance government funding with increased emergency aid requests for the southern border, Ukraine, and Israel. A stopgap bill passed late last year established the first funding deadline on Jan. 19, which could shutter parts of the government—while the second deadline on Feb. 2 could bring a total shutdown, including military operations. (Punchbowl News, Jan. 5 | The Hill, Jan. 1 | Politico, Jan. 2 and Dec. 28)

Tax Legislation

  • Congressional focus on immediate funding priorities adds a degree of uncertainty to an additional tax package that may seek to hitch a ride on any new spending bill early in the year. (Tax Notes and Politico, Jan. 2)
  • Recent discussions between Senate and House tax writers have focused on a package in the $90-100 billion range that would include measures on business interest deductibility, bonus depreciation, and an increase in the child tax credit for low-income families. (Roundtable Weekly, Nov. 17)
  • Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-OR) is scheduled to discuss funding priorities and tax issues during The Roundtable’s all-member 2024 State of the Industry Meeting on Jan. 23. Additionally, senior congressional staff from both Senate Finance and the House Ways and Means Committees will discuss the outlook for tax, trade, and other economic legislation in 2024 and beyond with Roundtable members.

Congressional Review Act

  • On the regulatory front, the Congressional Review Act (CRA) is a tool a new Congress can use to overturn certain federal agency rules completed during the last 60 session days of the previous Congress. This “lookback” threat of CRA reversal may come to fruition if Republicans win control of Congress and the White House in the November elections. (PoliticoPro, Jan. 2 and Congressional Research Service.)

A CRA initiative could impact Biden administration regulations completed this summer, but an exact date for when new rules would be clear of the CRA “lookback” is unknown at this time. (PoliticoPro, Jan. 2)

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