Category: Policy Landscape

Senate Republicans Race to Resolve Policy Disputes in One Big Beautiful Bill

Posted on by abigail_grenadier

Senate Republicans are racing to rewrite significant portions of their sweeping reconciliation bill in an effort to vote before the July 4 recess. Parliamentarian rulings, unresolved tax and Medicaid issues, and opposition from fiscal hawks and House conservatives are testing the goal of delivering the legislation to President Trump’s desk by the holiday.

State of Play

  • “We’ll have you out of here by the Fourth of July,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) told reporters Thursday.
  • Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough has ruled that several provisions violate reconciliation rules, including proposed changes to Medicaid financing and certain tax offsets.
  • Republicans must now revise or replace those sections while managing disagreements over state provider taxes, energy tax incentives, and the deductibility of state and local taxes (SALT).
  • The earliest a Senate vote could begin is Saturday, followed by a “vote-a-rama” and potential final passage on Sunday. The House has pledged a 48-hour notice before any floor vote, meaning the earliest action could occur Monday evening. (Roll Call, June 24)
  • “I remain very optimistic that there’s not going to be a wide chasm between the two products, what the Senate produces and what we produce. We all know what the touchpoints are, the areas of greatest concern,” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said.

Energy Tax Incentives

  • Several Senate Republicans are pushing to soften proposed rollbacks to the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) energy tax credits. (PoliticoPro, June 23)
  • The Senate Finance Committee’s current version seeks to phase out IRA credits faster than Democrats’ 2022 law but retains more favorable provisions than the House bill, including construction-based eligibility rules. (PoliticoPro – Analysis, June 24)
  • Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) said Thursday that she was focusing on ensuring Senate Finance language allowing projects to receive credits based on when they begin construction remains in the bill. Conservatives are seeking to return to more restrictive language passed by the House that would determine eligibility based on when those projects start producing electricity. (PoliticoPro, June 27)
  • “I want to make sure ‘commence construction’ is in place versus ‘placed in service.’ That’s really important,” said Sen. Murkowski.
  • However, fiscal conservatives remain opposed to extending energy subsidies, and Democrats continue to warn that weakening IRA incentives could threaten grid reliability as demand surges from data centers and AI-related power needs. (NYT, June 26)

RER Homeland Security Task Force Engaged Amid Iran Conflict

  • RER’s HSTF is actively coordinating with public and private partners in response to heightened geopolitical risks stemming from the conflict with Iran.
  • Under the oversight of the HSTF, the RE-ISAC, serves as the primary conduit of terrorism, cyber and natural hazard warning and response information between the government and the commercial facilities sector. (RW, June 13)
  • Through the HSTF and RE-ISAC, RER remains engaged in preparedness efforts, emphasizing resilience across the industry and monitoring evolving threats that could affect the nation’s infrastructure and operations.

Congress is expected to work through the weekend as Senate leaders try to finalize the reconciliation package and set up potential floor votes before the July 4 recess.

GOP Leaders Signal Reconciliation May Slip Past July 4 Deadline as Negotiations Continue

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As Senate Republicans navigate internal divisions and mounting pressure from the White House, critical policy decisions in the reconciliation package—including tax reforms, energy, and trade provisions are rapidly taking shape with implications for commercial real estate.

State of Play

  • More doubts have emerged among GOP leaders about whether the Senate will be able to meet its self-imposed July 4 deadline for passing its version of the reconciliation package.
  • Though Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) believes that the GOP is still on track, he emphasized that meeting the deadline hinges upon how much the Senate’s bill diverges from the House bill passed last month. 
  • “We’ll see what they produce,” Johnson told Politico, adding, “I just need them to come to their final decisions on everything. So we’ll see how it shapes up.” (Politico, June 11) 
  • Though the White House is keeping the pressure on senators, even President Donald Trump has acknowledged that additional time could be needed to finalize the reconciliation measure. (Politico, June 11)   
  • For their part, House Republicans approved several changes to their bill this week that were necessary in order to keep it in compliance with Senate rules. (Politico, June 10)  
  • If the Senate makes major revisions, the bill could go to conference in July in order to hammer out the differences, which could run up against the U.S. hitting its debt limit in August. (Axios, June 11) 
  • Senate Majority Leader John Thune said his team and key Senate committee chairs are coordinating closely with Speaker Johnson, holding weekly meetings and frequent calls to prevent the House from altering a bill that passes the Senate.
  • “There’s just a lot of coordination to hopefully avoid some of the potential snafus that could happen with something that’s this complicated,” Thune said. (Politico, June 11)

Key Issues 

  • Fiscally conservative Sens. Rand Paul (R-KY) and Ron Johnson (R-WI), among others, continue to scrutinize the long-term effect that the “Big Beautiful Bill” would have on the budget deficit.
  • In an interview with the Financial Times on Tuesday, Sen. Johnson conditioned his vote on assurances that the White House would cut more federal spending with a second major bill before next year’s midterm elections. (Financial Times, June 11)
  • The spotlight remains on the Senate Finance Committee, with Chairman Mike Crapo (R-ID) telling GOP senators Wednesday that he plans to scale back the House’s cap on the deductibility of state and local taxes (SALT) for individuals and rework repeals of clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). (Punchbowl News, June 12) 
  • Senate Republicans are also aiming to make business tax deductions for R&D, equipment purchases, and interest on debt permanent, rather than temporary as proposed in the House bill. (Punchbowl News, June 13)

IRA Energy Tax Credits

  • Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) is juggling different IRA demands, including at least four senators who want a less aggressive approach to the House’s proposed repeals. (Punchbowl News, June 12)
  • Sixteen clean energy tax incentives could be repealed or modified under the House-passed reconciliation bill, now under review by the Senate. Proposed changes to the IRA’s clean energy credits would eliminate incentives for residential energy-efficient upgrades and clean vehicles, while shortening the window for projects to begin construction and still qualify.  (PoliticoPro Analysis, June 11)
  • Senate Republicans are moving toward a consensus on preserving the transferability of clean energy tax credits from the IRA, as Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-ID) signaled openness to easing the House-passed restrictions and extending the phaseout timelines during a GOP conference briefing this week. (PoliticoPro, June 12)
  • The House-passed measure included provisions that would restrict credit transferability, which allows companies to sell their tax credits to a buyer in exchange for cash. (PoliticoPro, June 12)
  • “If you are going to have a credit, if it’s not transferable, it’s not of much use,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND). (PoliticoPro, June 12)

Trade Talks

  • Tariffs on materials such as lumber, steel, and aluminum have presented several challenges for commercial real estate. Impacts have included increased construction costs, the potential for project delays, and heightened uncertainty among investors. (RW, April 4)
  • The U.S. and Mexico are approaching a deal to reduce or eliminate President Trump’s 50 percent steel tariffs on imports, up to a certain volume. (Reuters, June 10)
  • This week, Commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick and senior economic officials from China agreed “in principle” to a framework of a “trade truce” between the world’s two largest economies, a sign of further progress. (CNN, June 11)
  • Late Wednesday, Trump said the U.S. was “rocking in terms of deals,” as it held trade talks with about 15 countries, including Japan and South Korea—but the president also threatened to unilaterally set tariff levels for many other countries in the coming weeks.   (WSJ, June 12)

Looking Ahead

As the White House urges Senate Republicans to make only modest changes to the reconciliation bill, Senate leaders are moving toward issuing final bill text by June 23, followed by a vote-a-rama. (Politico, June 12)

Senate Republicans Grapple with Details of Tax and Spending Bill

Posted on by abigail_grenadier

With Congress back in session this week, Senate Republicans got to work on ironing out the details of their version of the budget reconciliation package. Members of the upper chamber are signaling a number of changes to the House’s bill, which could complicate Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) fragile coalition.

State of Play

  • Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) met with President Trump at the White House on Monday, initiating a series of calls from Trump to individual GOP senators to discuss their concerns for the House-passed reconciliation package. (Punchbowl News, June 4)
  • The Senate GOP caucus met Wednesday afternoon to speak about the portions of the legislation that had already been or are on the cusp of being released. Among the most contentious issues: Medicaid, the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap, and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) energy tax credits. (Politico, June 3)
  • Finance Committee member Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) is one of several GOP lawmakers who has voiced interest in adjusting the phaseouts of certain IRA energy tax credits with a more “targeted” approach to protect U.S. businesses—including real estate—that are already invested in existing projects. (NBC News, June 6)
  • Fiscal hawks Rand Paul (R-KY) and Ron Johnson (R-WI) have already expressed opposition to the bill because it doesn’t contain enough spending cuts or do enough to address budget deficits. (WSJ, June 4)

Potential SALT & Business Tax Changes

  • On Wednesday, Senate Finance Committee members met with President Trump to discuss possible changes to the tax section of the bill. During the meeting, Senators briefly touched on their intention to try to revise the House’s proposal to raise the cap on SALT deductions for individuals to $40,000. 
  • Speaking to reporters outside the White House, Majority Leader Thune said he and his colleagues “start from a position that there really isn’t a single Republican senator who cares much about the SALT issue.” Thune went on to concede that he and other GOP senators “understand that it’s about 51 and 218, so we will work with our House counterparts and with the White House.”(Politico, June 4)
  • “We are sensitive to the fact that, you know, the speaker has pretty narrow margins, and there’s only so much that he can do to keep his coalition together. At the same time it wouldn’t surprise people that the Senate would like to improve on their handiwork,” Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) told reporters. (Politico, June 4)
  • The bulk of tax writers’ Wednesday meeting with the president, however, focused on a different issue: Trump is not sold on making several proposed business tax breaks permanent, including 100 percent bonus depreciation for equipment, machinery, and nonresidential property improvements.
  • Trump told Sen. Johnson and other members of the Finance Committee that it could be better for economic growth to make the provisions temporary, providing a more immediate incentive for businesses to take advantage of them. (Politico, June 5)

Section 899

  • Another area of debate that has emerged among Senate tax writers concerns Section 899, which would impose steep retaliatory taxes—up to 50 percent—on foreign taxpayers from countries that discriminate against U.S. businesses through their own tax regimes. (Roundtable Weekly, May 30)
  • If enacted in its current form, in addition to taxing foreign companies, Section 899 could raise tax rates on passive foreign investment in the U.S. (CNBC, June 2; Kirkland and Ellis, June 5)
  • Congress’ Joint Committee on Taxation has asserted that the “retaliatory tax” could in effect lead to a decline in foreign demand for U.S. assets and lower U.S. tax revenue (Bloomberg, May 30) 
  • In the short term, however, the provision is projected to raise significant revenue—$120 billion over the first five years. (Politico, June 4) 
  • Senators are reviewing potential changes and modifications to section 899 to address concerns. “There’s a lot of nervousness about how it could be used,” Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) told reporters, indicating that Republicans “want to make sure there’s not some unintended consequences.” (Semafor, June 4)

Implications for CRE

  • Senate tax writers, thus far, have not signaled significant interest in changes to priority issues like the deductibility of property taxes (business SALT) or carried interest.
  • The Senate is considering potential Roundtable-backed improvements to the House-passed Opportunity Zone provisions, as well as reforms to the low-income housing tax credit, the new markets tax credit, and a longer extension for provisions related to bonus depreciation and business interest deductibility.
  • An RER working group is analyzing Section 899’s impact on real estate and working to ensure policymakers understand its potential unintended consequences, which could include deterring foreign investment in large-scale, capital-intensive real estate and infrastructure projects in the U.S. (Roundtable Weekly, May 30)

Looking Ahead

While a few Senate committees have already released their sections of the bill, the Senate Finance Committee is expected to share their draft of the tax portion next week. RER will continue to update its members on key changes and their impacts on the commercial real estate industry during what will surely be an eventful month in Washington as the Senate works toward passing their reconciliation package by July 4.

Senate to Debate Changes to Reconciliation Bill

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With Congress back in session next week, the Senate is gearing up to take on the House’s reconciliation package and potentially make significant changes to the bill. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is expected to release further information on its FY2026 budget.

Senate to Take Up One Big Beautiful Bill Act

  • “This bill is far from over, but we are pleased the House bill maintains current law on business property and income tax deductibility, carried interest, and Section 1031 exchanges, while also improving Opportunity Zones, the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, and taxation of pass-through entities,” said Jeffrey DeBoer, President and CEO of The Real Estate Roundtable (RER). “As the Senate takes up this bill we plan to work to preserve these provisions.  We are also highly focused on eliminating the ‘retaliatory tax’ on foreign investment, as well as improving other aspects of the bill.”
  • The Senate is back in session Monday and eager to put its mark on the massive reconciliation package. The next four weeks will involve crucial tax negotiations on a variety of key provisions, including Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) energy tax incentives, state and local tax (SALT) deductions, Medicaid, and more. There are also procedural hurdles that the Senate bill must overcome.
  • Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) implored his Senate colleagues to avoid making major changes to the bill, saying, “If it wasn’t obvious for them, I wanted them to know the equilibrium that we reached is so delicate… My hope and my encouragement to them is – fine tune this product as little as possible.” (Punchbowl News, May 26)
  • Difficult compromises based on countless hours of negotiations were made to get the House bill across the finish line. If the Senate makes drastic changes, it could force negotiators back to the drawing board on certain issues and make it more difficult to meet the GOP’s goal of getting the reconciliation bill to President Trump’s desk by July 4. (Punchbowl News, May 29)

Expected Changes to the Reconciliation Bill

  • Early reports indicate that Senate leadership will seek only minor modifications to the House’s bill, rather than sweeping changes. But some senators are pushing for much more. (Punchbowl News, May 23)
  • Procedural changes: The Senate’s Byrd Rule requires that only budget-related items are included in the reconciliation process. As a result, some minor provisions could be stripped out. (Axios, May 28)
  • Tax additions: The Senate is also expected to switch the bill from a “current law” to a “current policy” baseline, allowing the Senate to permanently extend key tax cuts expiring this year. This would give Senate tax writers more space to include other tax provisions, including the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s (TCJA) 100 percent bonus depreciation.
  • Energy tax incentives: Multiple GOP senators have advocated for protecting the IRA energy tax incentives, including Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Thom Tillis (R-NC), who sits on the Senate Finance Committee and wants to moderate the House’s rollback of the tax credits. (Politico, May 23)
  • These modifications could include extending some tax credits that the House bill proposed eliminating, or expanding the timeline for their phase-out to ensure that the change does not strand energy projects already in progress.

Other Potential Changes

  • Medicaid cuts: Sens. Josh Hawley (R-MO), Susan Collins (R-ME), and others have taken issue with the House bill’s Medicaid cost-cutting measures, including expanded work requirements and other changes. (The Hill, May 28)
  • Deficit debate: A group of deficit hawks, including Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), are pushing for far deeper spending cuts than the House bill proposes, and have criticized it for not sufficiently reducing the deficit. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) also called the spending cuts in the House bill “wimpy and anemic.” (Axios, May 25)
  • Pressure from President Trump was crucial to getting deficit hawks in the House to back down from their opposition to the lower chamber’s bill. It remains to be seen whether conservatives concerned about the deficit in the Senate will put up more of a fight.
  • Debt limit: The Senate could increase the debt limit hike in the bill from $4 trillion to $5 trillion, ensuring that the next debt limit fight doesn’t happen until after the 2026 midterms. However, this proposal has also faced opposition from Sen. Rand Paul. (Politico, May 25)
  • Overall, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has his work cut out for him in order to hammer out the differences in opinion within his caucus. He can only afford to lose three GOP senators. It will take immense effort and deft political maneuvering to meet their aggressive July 4 goal.

Looking Ahead

  • Trump’s FY2026 budget request is expected to be released next week, kicking off a renewed budget battle after the administration’s skinny budget proposed in early May received pushback from both sides of the aisle. (Reuters, May 2)

RER will continue to engage with policymakers to ensure that the commercial real estate industry has a seat at the table in the critical Senate negotiations to come.

“One Big Beautiful Bill” Moves Through to the Senate as House Republicans Unite on Trump Tax Plan

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House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) met his self-imposed Memorial Day deadline as dissenting factions within the caucus reached an agreement on a series of last-minute changes, culminating in a razor-thin vote (215-214) on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act early Thursday morning. The budget reconciliation measure—which has wide implications for CRE—now goes to the Senate, where a similar tug of war could play out. (Ways & Means Press Release, May 22)

State of Play

  • The House Budget Committee voted late Sunday night to advance President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act after several GOP hard-liners on the Committee blocked the measure from moving forward last Friday. (ABC News, May 19)
  • President Trump traveled to Capitol Hill Tuesday morning to deliver a message to House Republicans impeding the massive bill, a critical part of his domestic agenda: stop fighting and get it done as soon as possible. (NBC News, May 20)
  • The chamber took action, clearing the sprawling package in an early-morning vote Thursday after days of marathon meetings, intense negotiations that spanned both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, and a series of swift changes to the bill, which were crucial in coalescing Republicans around the measure. (The Hill, May 22)
  • House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) said that he’s been working “hand in glove” with Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-ID) on the tax package and had crafted it intentionally so it could survive the Senate’s rules. “I think 90 to 95 percent of the bill is going to be pretty much very similar,” he said previously. (Bloomberg, May 22)

Implications for CRE

  • The legislation includes an extension of the 2017 tax cuts, while maintaining the full deductibility of state and local business property tax deductions (also known as “Business SALT”) and preserving the current treatment of carried interest, two key priorities for The Roundtable in the current tax negotiations.
  • Additionally, the pass-through deduction under Section 199A would increase from 20 percent to 23 percent for qualifying income, including REIT dividends and the real estate operating income of partnerships and other pass-through entities. A late addition to the bill will allow REITs greater flexibility in their use of taxable REIT subsidiaries. (The Hill, May 21)
  • The bill extends the Opportunity Zone (OZ) tax incentives through 2033, with several updated eligibility criteria and new benefits for rural areas. This legislation also calls for a new round of OZ designations by state governors. (Mortgage Point, May 22)
  • Other positive developments include an expansion of the low-income housing tax credit and the reinstatement of 100 percent expensing for qualifying leasehold and nonresidential property improvements.
  • Now, the Senate will debate and craft its version of the bill, which it aims to pass by July 4. (The Hill, May 21; CNBC, May 22)

The Roundtable’s Position

  • RER expressed support for the House’s budget reconciliation measure. The extension of TCJA policies, preservation of property tax deductibility, continued capital gains treatment for carried interest, increased investment in affordable housing, and enhanced pass-through deduction are all positive developments. 
  • “Taken as a whole, the tax proposals in the Chairman’s amendment will spur needed investment in our nation’s housing supply, strengthen urban and rural communities, and grow the broader economy to the benefit of all Americans,” said RER President and CEO Jeff DeBoer in a recent statement following the House Ways and Means Committee’s bill markup last week.

What’s Next       

  • The action on the tax and fiscal legislation now shifts to the U.S Senate where Republicans are operating under similar tight margins.
  • Senate Republican leaders have not yet decided whether they will mark up the reconciliation bill in the various committees of jurisdiction. Finance Chairman Crapo could bring a substitute amendment straight to the Senate floor sometime in June.

RER will work to ensure that these hard-fought victories are protected in any final tax package.

What’s Ahead: Reconciliation Talks on Capitol Hill

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Congress will return to Washington next week with an ambitious agenda—kicking off markups for a sweeping reconciliation package that would enact the President’s legislative agenda and could shape the fiscal and tax landscape for years to come. (CBS, April 24)

Markup Schedule

  • The Judiciary, Homeland Security, and Armed Services Committees are expected to lead the process starting the week of April 28. These panels have jurisdiction over spending on border security and defense and are tasked with allocating $110 billion, $90 billion, and $100 billion respectively under the House budget resolution. (Politico, April 17)
  • The Energy and Commerce Committee is targeting May 7 for its markup. The committee is required to find $880 billion in savings, which may involve changes to Medicaid, electric vehicle mandates, and other policy areas. (Punchbowl News, April 23)
  • The Financial Services Committee is set to vote on April 30 on its share of the reconciliation package, which must include a minimum of $1 billion in cuts over 10 years. (PoliticoPro, April 23)
  • Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) have expressed a shared goal of advancing the reconciliation package by Memorial Day.
  • “We are pushing it very aggressively on schedule, as you said, to get it done by Memorial Day,” Johnson said this week, citing the need to tame stock market instability.
  • Johnson also said he and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) had a conference call with the 11 House GOP committee chairs on Wednesday to discuss the next steps for Trump’s “big beautiful bill.” (PoliticoPro, April 23)

Tax Policy

  • Tax legislation will be a cornerstone of the reconciliation package as lawmakers prepare to extend the major tax provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) that are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025. (PoliticoPro, April 14)
  • The House Ways and Means Committee is eyeing a potential two-day markup session on May 12 and 13. (PoliticoPro, April 24)
  • House GOP leaders, including Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-MO), are scheduled to meet Wednesday with blue-state Republicans to discuss the personal SALT deduction cap.
  • The meeting marks a key moment in resolving one of the most politically sensitive issues in the tax bill. While most Republicans support maintaining the current $10,000 cap, several GOP lawmakers from high-tax states have threatened to oppose the package unless the cap is raised to at least $25,000. (Punchbowl News, April 25)
  • As policymakers prepare the first major tax bill since 2017, The Roundtable (RER) and the real estate industry are focusing heavily on preserving the full deductibility of business-related property taxes. The deductibility of business-related state and local income and property taxes has emerged as a central issue as lawmakers look for ways to pay for new tax provisions.
  • A cap on the deductibility of property taxes paid by U.S. businesses could have devastating consequences for commercial real estate owners, developers, and investors nationwide, reversing the benefits of the 2017 tax bill and raising effective tax rates on real estate to 1970s-era levels near 50%.  (RW, April 11) 
  • State and local property taxes represent 40% of the operating costs of U.S. commercial real estate, a greater expense than utilities, maintenance, and insurance costs combined.  RER urges its members to weigh in with Members of Congress against restrictions on deducting state and local property taxes.
  • Other important issues for real estate in the current tax discussions include: tax parity for pass-through businesses, potential tax increases on carried interest, preservation of the opportunity zone tax incentives, and a possible expansion of the low-income housing tax credit.  (Bloomberg, April 21)

Potential Challenges Ahead

  • The reconciliation effort faces serious political hurdles, particularly regarding spending cuts and revenue-raising provisions.
  • House Republicans have a narrow majority, and leadership must secure support from nearly every member of their caucus. Proposed cuts to Medicaid and SNAP could generate pushback from moderate Republicans, while debates over “payfors” continue to divide lawmakers.
  • The House and Senate are also operating under different reconciliation instructions, which could further complicate aligning final legislation.

IRA & Energy Tax Credits

  • Since budget negotiations began, Republican leadership has suggested repealing some or all of the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) clean energy tax credits as a way to reduce federal spending. However, several GOP lawmakers have advocated preserving specific provisions that benefit their constituents. (Reuters, April 21)
  • In a recent letter to Leader Thune, four Senate Republicans urged a more selective approach to scaling back the IRA’s tax provisions. Additionally, 21 House Republicans expressed their support for maintaining energy incentives that benefit both traditional and renewable energy sectors in a March letter to House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-MO). (Newsweek, April 21)

RER at the Forefront

  • This week, RER President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer appeared on the special webcast  “Real Recession Risk or Temporary Distraction?” hosted by Marcus & Millichap President and CEO Hessam Nadji. DeBoer joined Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi to discuss recession risks, inflation, and the broader impact of trade and tax policy in Washington. (Watch)
  • DeBoer was also a keynote speaker at the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s James A. Graaskamp Center Spring Board Conference earlier this month, where he shared his insights on how the Trump administration’s economic agenda, regulatory changes, tariffs, and tax policy are impacting commercial real estate.

RER will continue to monitor developments closely as Congress advances a package that could have far-reaching implications for commercial real estate, business taxation, and economic growth.

With Shutdown Averted, GOP Sharpens Focus on Tax Priorities

Posted on by Trey Jackson


Tax and fiscal policy are now at the top of the GOP’s agenda after a stopgap spending bill passed last Friday, preventing a potential government shutdown. House and Senate GOP members have just a few weeks of session before the long Easter and Passover recess to make significant progress on a budget resolution.

Government Shutdown Averted

  • Congress avoided a shutdown last Friday after ten Senate Democrats, including Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), voted to advance the GOP’s stopgap spending bill. The six-month continuing resolution funds the federal government through September. (NBC News, March 14)

  • Schumer rallied enough Democrats in the Senate to approve the measure in a key procedural vote. Responding to outspoken disagreement within his party about voting for the GOP’s spending bill, Schumer said, “I knew it was a difficult choice, and I knew I’d get a lot of criticism for my choice, but I felt as a leader I had to do it.” (ABC News, March 18)

Tax Policy Update

  • With the risk of a shutdown now in the rearview mirror, House and Senate GOP leaders are focusing their attention on a reconciliation package that would advance their tax priorities, including extending key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). (NYT, March 21)

  • The House passed its version of the budget resolution last month, but the bill has seen little movement in the Senate due to divisions within the GOP over budget constraints and offsets.
  • Congressional Republicans want to make the TCJA tax cuts permanent, which will be challenging under the House budget resolution’s current $4.5 trillion tax cut ceiling.

  • President Trump, Senate GOP leadership and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) support using a “current policy baseline” approach, a budget scoring method that would allow Congress to extend the TCJA tax cuts without adding to the deficit on paper and give them more room to include the administration’s other tax priorities. (Politico, March 13)

  • Senate Budget Committee Republicans are planning to hold meetings with the Senate parliamentarian’s office to determine if this approach complies with reconciliation rules. GOP lawmakers need guidance by early April to move forward with large parts of the budget resolution. (Punchbowl News, March 18)

  • The challenge of balancing tax relief with deficit concerns has fueled high-level discussions between Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD). Thune acknowledged the difficulty of the process, saying, “Both of us understand we’ve got to get this done. And we’re trying to figure out the best way to do that.” (Punchbowl News, March 19)

Key Tax Provisions At Stake

  • While GOP leaders seek guidance on the “current policy baseline” approach, House Ways and Means Committee and Senate Finance Republicans are continuing to debate key tax provisions of the bill.

  • Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-ID) mentioned during an appearance at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce that there are over 200 proposals under consideration—including reducing the estate tax, expanding the Opportunity Zone program and enhancing the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC). (PoliticoPro, March 12)

  • Expanding Opportunity Zones and the LIHTC would help expand the supply of affordable housing and address the U.S. housing crisis. (Roundtable Weekly, March 17)
  • To offset the cost of the large number of tax proposals under consideration, Republicans are considering the repeal of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) energy tax credits. IRA programs have come under increasing scrutiny by the Trump administration as it looks to roll back Biden-era energy policies.

  • However, a new report warns that eliminating these credits could result in nearly 790,000 job losses and increase consumer energy costs by $6 billion annually by 2030. In light of these concerns, 21 House Republicans have advocated for preserving the energy tax credits—pointing out that they are critical to help the U.S. meet Trump’s goal of becoming “energy dominant.” (PoliticoPro, March 20; Politico, March 10)

  • Other lawmakers have raised potential restrictions on the deductibility of state and local business property taxes, also known as “business SALT,” as a revenue offset for the tax bill. This tax change would have devastating consequences on the commercial real estate industry and the broader economy. (Letter, March 7 | Roundtable Weekly, March 17 | (BisNow, March 14)

  • RER has urged members to contact their representatives to oppose restrictions on business SALT that would discourage new investment and undermine housing affordability nationwide.

GSA’s Plans for Federal Leases

  • In other news this week, the General Services Administration (GSA)—under directions from the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—will begin to vacate nearly 800 offices across the country this summer. (AP, March 14)

  • The news has generated great uncertainty for federal agencies using these offices and building owners who lease to the government. The Associated Press released a full list of office locations it found would be affected by the planned lease terminations. (AP, March 14)

Looking Ahead

  • With Congress racing to cut through key process hurdles before the April 13 recess, GOP leaders are hoping the concurrent budget resolution will start to finally take shape—though tough decisions remain ahead.

RER will continue to engage policymakers on important tax priorities for the real estate industry and analyze the implications of the GSA’s federal lease plans on commercial real estate across the country.

Lawmakers Navigate Action-Packed Week on Capitol Hill

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Contentious policy discussions surrounding the economy, immigration and government spending continued this week in Washington as lawmakers work towards an agreement on a federal spending bill.

State of Play

  • The House narrowly approved a continuing resolution (CR), on March 11 to keep the government funded through September. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) managed to largely keep his GOP conference united, passing the measure days ahead of a possible government shutdown. (CBS News, March 11)
  • To prevent a shutdown, the Senate must approve a measure before the current funding expires on Friday night. Republicans will require support from at least seven Democrats to reach the 60-vote threshold necessary to overcome a filibuster. (Financial Times, March 12)
  • Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), told his caucus privately on  Thursday, and later in a floor speech, that he would vote to advance a GOP-written stopgap to fund the government through September. While he described the Republican spending bill as “very bad,” he emphasized that the “consequences of a shutdown for America would be far worse.” (Politico, March 13)

National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)

  • Included in the CR package, is the extension of The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).
  • If enacted, this will be Congress’s 32nd  short-term extensions of the NFIP. The Roundtable has been a long-standing supporter of a long-term reauthorization of the NFIP with appropriate reforms.
  • A long-term reform and reauthorization of the NFIP is essential for residential markets, overall natural catastrophe insurance market capacity, and the broader economy.

  • RER, along with its industry partners, will continue advocating for targeted policy solutions that can help alleviate increased insurance costs for housing providers nationwide. (Roundtable Weekly, Feb. 28)

Inflation Reduction Act

  • As Congressional Republicans look to offset trillions of dollars in proposed tax cuts in their budget bill, Biden-era provisions from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) have sparked debate. (Politico, March 10; Brookings, Jan. 6)
  • This week, a group of 21 House Republicans led by Rep. Andrew Garabino (R-NY), whose districts have benefited from billions in new investments due to IRA incentives, argued that energy tax credits and provisions for manufacturers and builders are essential in achieving President Trump’s goal for the U.S. to be “energy dominant”. (Politico, March 10)
  • In a letter to President Trump, the group asserted that eliminating certain credits could mean “drastically higher power bills for American families” and emphasized that “many credits were enacted over the course of a 10-year period, which allowed energy developers to plan with these tax incentives in mind.” (Reuters, March 11)

Immigration – Gold Card Proposal

  • On March 11, RER sent a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, expressing support for the “Gold Card” proposal. This concept aims to bolster U.S. economic growth, address the national deficit, and strengthen America’s competitive edge in the global marketplace.
  • The letter reiterated support for the existing EB-5 program, which allows foreign investors to obtain a green card by making substantial investments that result in jobs for American workers and funding for large-scale developments.
  • As RER’s letter emphasized, pairing the “Gold Card” program with the EB-5 framework offers a powerful, dual-track approach that will reform America’s visa system, attract top global talent, and drive foreign investment into strategic, job-creating projects. (Letter, March 11)

  • During a meeting with GOP Senators this week, President Trump discussed his “Gold Card” Program as a revenue source to address the national deficit.

Federal Workforce Cuts and GSA Leasing

  • Federal agencies faced a Thursday deadline to submit initial plans for sweeping workforce cuts and reorganizations, following President Trump’s directive for “large-scale reductions in force,” with a second round of plans due in April. (Politico, March 12)
  • The “Phase 1” agency cut plans due this week mark the first step in the Trump administration’s broader downsizing strategy, with “Phase 2” plans—detailing operational overhauls—due by April 14 and set for implementation by Sept. 30. (Politico, March 12)
  • A federal judge ordered the administration to rehire thousands of employees dismissed from six agencies, disputing the Trump administration’s justification for firing the probationary workers. (NYT, March 13)

  • RER will continue to track these developments and their potential implications for government leasing in Washington, D.C. and other major urban centers. (Roundtable Weekly, Feb. 7)

Both chambers are in recess next week and set to return to Washington on March 24.

Major Tax and Fiscal Package Gains Momentum as House Passes Budget Resolution

Posted on by Trey Jackson

House Republicans’ effort to pass a massive tax and fiscal package received a jolt of momentum this week after a cliffhanger vote on the House floor Tuesday night. Passed by a narrow vote of 217-215, the House resolution would authorize $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, provided congressional committees can identify $2 trillion in spending reductions. 

House Budget Proposal

  • Under the deal negotiated with fiscal conservatives in the House, if congressional committees cannot agree on $2 trillion in savings, the size of the authorized tax cut will automatically adjust downwards.  If they can agree on more than $2 trillion in savings, the size of the authorized tax cuts would adjust higher. (House Committee Report, Feb. 18)
  • The House resolution also includes a controversial $4 trillion increase in the national borrowing limit, along with allocations of up to $200 billion for border security and $100 billion for defense funding. (Roll Call, Feb. 25; AP, Feb. 25))
  • Shortly before the vote, The Roundtable joined a broad business coalition urging Congress to pass the House budget resolution to prevent a looming tax hike on pass-through businesses.  (Letter, Feb. 24)

Next Steps

  • Both the House and Senate chambers must now align on a budget resolution before moving forward with a reconciliation bill detailing the spending cuts, tax reductions, and other measures.
  • Senate Republicans have expressed reservations about the House’s approach, particularly concerning the scale of spending cuts and the structure of tax extensions.
  • Senate leaders have already signaled they will push for changes to ensure the 2017 tax cuts become permanent, as the House plan may lack the fiscal room to do so while also accommodating President Trump’s proposed new tax breaks.
  • Senate Majority Leader John Thune emphasized the complexity of the task, stating, “It’s complicated. It’s hard. Nothing about this is going to be easy.” (The Hill, Feb. 27)

View from The White House

  • For weeks, the president has endorsed the House plan as the best way to achieve his top legislative priorities in one move, yet he has also signaled openness to the Senate’s alternative or a compromise blending both approaches.
  • “So the House has a bill and the Senate has a bill, and I’m looking at them both, and I’ll make decisions,” President Trump said at the White House on Tuesday. “I know the Senate’s doing very well, and the House is doing very well, but each one of them has things that I like, so we’ll see if we can come together.”

Revenue Offsets and Business SALT

  • Some lawmakers have raised “Business SALT” and potential restrictions on the deductibility of state and local property taxes as a possible revenue offset for the tax bill. 
  • Eliminating the business deduction for property taxes would be the equivalent of raising property tax bills on commercial real estate by roughly 40 percent. 
  • “Business taxes are fundamentally different from state and local individual income taxes.  State and local business taxes are an unavoidable expense, an inescapable cost of doing business,” observed Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer last week.  (Roundtable Weekly, Feb. 21)
  • “Employers would owe federal tax on money that they do not have.  It would lead to insolvencies and foreclosures. It would cause self-inflicted injury to the U.S. economy, including unnecessary job losses, higher rents for families and individuals, and other inflationary pressures.  It is a recipe for a recession,” said DeBoer.
  • It remains an open question whether the House and Senate will use a “current policy” budget baseline that would not count the extension of the 2017 tax cuts as a revenue loss.  A current policy baseline could significantly reduce the pressure to identify spending reductions and revenue offsets. (PoliticoPro, Feb. 28)

Averting Government Shutdown

  • In addition to the tax and fiscal package, congressional leaders are under pressure to reach an agreement on current-year federal spending before a government shutdown on March 14.  A short-term stopgap bill will likely be necessary. (Axios, Feb. 27, CBS, Feb. 27)

Looking Ahead

The House budget resolution directs House committees to report their spending reductions and tax changes to the House Budget Committee no later than March 27, 2025.

Senate Advances Narrow Budget Resolution as President Trump Endorses House “One Bill” Strategy

Posted on by Trey Jackson

After an all-night session of voting on amendments, the Senate passed a narrow budget resolution focused on border security, defense spending, and expanded energy production. 

Senate Passes Budget Resolution

  • The Senate vote, 52-48, came two days after President Trump expressed his preference for the House strategy of moving forward with “one big beautiful bill” that would include all of his agenda, including an extension of the 2017 tax cuts. (Reuters, Feb. 21)

  • After its passage, Senate Budget Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said the Senate resolution would allow the Judiciary and Homeland Security Committees to spend up to $175 billion to implement the President’s border security agenda, increase defense spending by $150 billion, and facilitate energy independence through new on and offshore lease sales and ending the methane emissions fee. (Politico, Feb. 20)

Amendments Defeated

  • Although the Senate budget resolution does not include an extension of the 2017 tax cuts, Senate Democrats used the open amendment process to challenge Republicans on tax policy, offering several amendments calling on Senators to reject tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires. These amendments were defeated on party-line votes. (AP, Feb. 21)

  • Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) offered an amendment to create a point of order against any final budget reconciliation bill that does not decrease the cost of housing for American families. It was also defeated on a party-line vote. (WSJ, Feb. 21)

  • Senators Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) filed, but did not offer, an amendment aimed at putting Senators on the record in favor or against recharacterizing carried interest as ordinary income.

House and Senate’s Competing Plans

  • The House and Senate appear to be on a collision course.  Last week, the Senate Budget Committee passed, on a party-line vote, a much more ambitious budget resolution that includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and up to $2 trillion in spending reductions. (Reuters, Feb. 21)

  • The House approach received a major lift on Wednesday when President Trump posted that the House resolution “implements my FULL American First Agenda … not just parts of it,” and that “[w]e need both Chambers to pass the House Budget to ‘kickstart’ the Reconciliation process.” (Barrons, Feb. 19)

  • The House budget could be on the House floor as early as next week. Passage would allow the two chambers to resolve their differences in a conference committee, vote on the compromise budget, and then move to the next stage—committee action on actual legislation. (AP, Feb. 21)

Looking Ahead

RER will pay close attention to budget discussions coming from both chambers and their implications on crucial real estate policy issues. We will continue to advocate for pro-growth budget considerations in areas such as State and Local Tax (SALT) and carried interest.